If a Democrat was down by this much, people would be insisting that it was already lost. For instance, Braley and Grimes are actually winning in today's polls, but people insist they've lost already.
Because they're Democrats in Purple and (atlas) blue states, and this is a Republican in Kansas where you have to account for a potential mega coming home effect. I do think Roberts still loses though.
You can account for that to a point, and would be a valid argument in other circumstances. However, the Kansas Republican Party is having a brutal year all around, this isn't just isolated to Roberts.
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