NJ's Next Elected Senator, Bob Menendez

[Smash255]

New Jersey usually has ridiculous numbers of undecideds which break en mass at the end, many times for the Democrat. There's no way to predict who they'll break for this year.

If ou look at the past history of when they break for the Dems (which is more often than not) as opposed to when they don't one thing pops out.  How well known the GOP candidate is.  When its a GOP candidate that is fairly well known early on they will tend to break heavily for the Dems.  The only times they haven't broken heavily for the Dems is when the GOP candidate was not well known early on (Franks in 2000, Whitman's 1st go around).  Virtually every time the GOP canndidate has been well known, the undecideds broke heavily Democratic, and Kean JR is well know.

P.S congrats on 15k, damn thats alot of posts

[Smash255]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

Take the most recent 5 (excluding the erratic Zogby and the now not needed old FDU and Rasmussen polls) that is a 3 out of 5 for Kean.  And the point more is, polls, unlike what Olawankandi says, don't mean much.  What means something is how corrupt NJ Dems are how many new scandals emerge each day, how much better Bush did in 04', and do I have to go on?  I have stated in previous comments at least 25 reasons why Tom Kean Jr. will win.  But you have nothing but worthless polls to suggest Menendez will win.

The state has constantly polled more GOP than dem.  Undecideds have traditionally swung strongly for Dems.  This is true EVERY SINGLE TIME the GOP candidate is well known.  And well Kean is well known.  On top of that Bush did better in 04 due to his 9/11 bounce.  A bounce long gone.  his numbers in new Jersey are absolutley abysmal, and have been hovering around the 30% mark to low 30's for some time now.  The whole corruption thing is a bit silly, their has been only one thing that can be connected to Menendez, and it really has nothing to do with him.  Someone he supported turned out to have some corruption issues, but it had nothing to do with him directly, nor has anything else.

[Smash255]

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 39% 43%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 43.3% 40.5%
Strategic Vision August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Rasmussen August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Zogby July 24, 2006 44.8% 39.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Strategic Vision July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Rutgers/Eagleton June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Zogby June 21, 2006 41.0% 40.2%
Strategic Vision June 16-18, 2006 38% 36%
Quinnipiac June 7-13, 2006 43% 36%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Strategic Vision May 12-14, 2006 35% 35%
Quinnipiac April 18-24, 2006 40% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Strategic Vision April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Zogby March 31, 2006 40.1% 39.7%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Strategic Vision March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Zogby February 14, 2006 37% 32%
Strategic Vision February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Rasmussen December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%

Take the most recent 5 (excluding the erratic Zogby and the now not needed old FDU and Rasmussen polls) that is a 3 out of 5 for Kean.  And the point more is, polls, unlike what Olawankandi says, don't mean much.  What means something is how corrupt NJ Dems are how many new scandals emerge each day, how much better Bush did in 04', and do I have to go on?  I have stated in previous comments at least 25 reasons why Tom Kean Jr. will win.  But you have nothing but worthless polls to suggest Menendez will win.

The state has cponstantly polled more GOP than dem.  Undecideds have traditionally swung strongly for Dems.  This is true EVERY SINGLE TIME the GOP candidate is well known.  And well Kean is well known.  On top of that Bush did bteter in 04 due to his 9/11 bounce.  A boubnce long gone.  his numbers in new Jersey are absolutley abysmal, and have been hovering around the 30% mark to low 30's for some time now.  The whole corruption thing is a bit silly, their has been only one thing that can be connected to Menendez, and it really has nothing to do with him.  Someone he supported turned out to have some corruption issues, but it had nothing to do with him directly, nor has anything else.

dont you mean more Dem then gop?

No, the polls are more GOP friendly than the actual results.  Let me fix those typos, damn

[Smash255]

I think Menendez will win the debates just like Salazar did in 2004 and beat Kean Jr.  Salazar was in a similar situation in 2004, he was behind in the summer to Coors in polls but he pulled it out at the end on his debate strategy and I think Menendez will do the same.

Ummm..., Salazar was the challenging party not the incumbent.  And problems in Colorado was making it move Democrat, just as the Dem machine corrupt is pushing NJ ever so slowly to the right.

Nj moving right??  HA

[Smash255]

I think Menendez will win the debates just like Salazar did in 2004 and beat Kean Jr.  Salazar was in a similar situation in 2004, he was behind in the summer to Coors in polls but he pulled it out at the end on his debate strategy and I think Menendez will do the same.

Ummm..., Salazar was the challenging party not the incumbent.  And problems in Colorado was making it move Democrat, just as the Dem machine corrupt is pushing NJ ever so slowly to the right.

Nj moving right??  HA

Yes that is absurd....hhahahahahaha

Obviously not only do polls swings, not polls there worthless except to show swings, and elections don't mean anything to you.  Not even NJ is corrupt even to keep electing these clowns to office.  NJ is like OH, typically one-sided state, but corruption by one party has made it swingy again.

Forstarters Ohio is MUCh more of a swing state than NJ is.  And the scandals in Ohio FAr outweigh any of the so called scandals in New Jersey.

[Smash255]

If Corzine had just picked Codey we wouldn't even have to waste time talking about this race.

Codey refused to go. Besides Holt would have been awesome or Rothman or Pallone.

Codey, hell I might have voted ofr Codey.  But he wasn't part of the "machine", so the Democrats wouldn't allow this, and that certainly doesn't help their image.

Holt- decent candidate
Rothman- farther to the left than NJ by far
Pallone- don't know a lot about him

Another point to be made that I think people agree with:
If Bob Menendez loses this race his career is over, if TKJ loses this race it is chalked up as experience and he moves on (John Thune-esque)

Menendez would probably kick out Sires and take back his house seat. TKJ would be in the state senate for 5 more years or maybe run for congress and then run for something else.

Conan buddy, just starting to think you were coming around until you say something like Codey didn't want anything, of course he wanted it, he just said he didn't.  Did you not see the press conference?  He didn't really want to give it up, but the machine forced him too. 

Do you really give Menendez better than say a 60% chance to win this race, which is about what I have Kean at right now.

I was referring to Senate not governor for Codey.

I was referring to both.  This race also mirrors MD in a way.  In MD, if the more moderate Cardin wins the primary (the pushed out Codey), it is a close race, but not that close, but if the radical (Menendez, Mfume) wins the primary they face an uphill battle against the moderate their running against (and Kean is more moderate than Steele).  Now the Democrats must defend this seat.

You can't say your that confident Menendez will win?

Considering both states are left of center your analysis seems a bit strange

[Smash255]

If Corzine had just picked Codey we wouldn't even have to waste time talking about this race.

Codey refused to go. Besides Holt would have been awesome or Rothman or Pallone.

Codey, hell I might have voted ofr Codey.  But he wasn't part of the "machine", so the Democrats wouldn't allow this, and that certainly doesn't help their image.

Holt- decent candidate
Rothman- farther to the left than NJ by far
Pallone- don't know a lot about him

Another point to be made that I think people agree with:
If Bob Menendez loses this race his career is over, if TKJ loses this race it is chalked up as experience and he moves on (John Thune-esque)

Menendez would probably kick out Sires and take back his house seat. TKJ would be in the state senate for 5 more years or maybe run for congress and then run for something else.

Conan buddy, just starting to think you were coming around until you say something like Codey didn't want anything, of course he wanted it, he just said he didn't.  Did you not see the press conference?  He didn't really want to give it up, but the machine forced him too. 

Do you really give Menendez better than say a 60% chance to win this race, which is about what I have Kean at right now.

I was referring to Senate not governor for Codey.

I was referring to both.  This race also mirrors MD in a way.  In MD, if the more moderate Cardin wins the primary (the pushed out Codey), it is a close race, but not that close, but if the radical (Menendez, Mfume) wins the primary they face an uphill battle against the moderate their running against (and Kean is more moderate than Steele).  Now the Democrats must defend this seat.

You can't say your that confident Menendez will win?

Considering both states are left of center your analysis seems a bit strange

The main point is this an uphill battle for Menendez, not a cakewalk.  For Codey it wouldn't have been a cakewalk, but he'd win by about 7 or 8 points.  Much more than Menendez could even dream of winning by.  Kean wins by 3 or 4 when the dust settles.

Not going to happen, the state is not going to elect to give George Bush more power, they just hate him too much.

[Smash255]

If Corzine had just picked Codey we wouldn't even have to waste time talking about this race.

Codey refused to go. Besides Holt would have been awesome or Rothman or Pallone.

Codey, hell I might have voted ofr Codey.  But he wasn't part of the "machine", so the Democrats wouldn't allow this, and that certainly doesn't help their image.

Holt- decent candidate
Rothman- farther to the left than NJ by far
Pallone- don't know a lot about him

Another point to be made that I think people agree with:
If Bob Menendez loses this race his career is over, if TKJ loses this race it is chalked up as experience and he moves on (John Thune-esque)

Menendez would probably kick out Sires and take back his house seat. TKJ would be in the state senate for 5 more years or maybe run for congress and then run for something else.

Conan buddy, just starting to think you were coming around until you say something like Codey didn't want anything, of course he wanted it, he just said he didn't.  Did you not see the press conference?  He didn't really want to give it up, but the machine forced him too. 

Do you really give Menendez better than say a 60% chance to win this race, which is about what I have Kean at right now.

I was referring to Senate not governor for Codey.

I was referring to both.  This race also mirrors MD in a way.  In MD, if the more moderate Cardin wins the primary (the pushed out Codey), it is a close race, but not that close, but if the radical (Menendez, Mfume) wins the primary they face an uphill battle against the moderate their running against (and Kean is more moderate than Steele).  Now the Democrats must defend this seat.

You can't say your that confident Menendez will win?

Considering both states are left of center your analysis seems a bit strange

The main point is this an uphill battle for Menendez, not a cakewalk.  For Codey it wouldn't have been a cakewalk, but he'd win by about 7 or 8 points.  Much more than Menendez could even dream of winning by.  Kean wins by 3 or 4 when the dust settles.

Not going to happen, the state is not going to elect to give George Bush more power, they just hate him too much.

Yes, when you can find a link between the two, please present it to me.  The only person directly linked to him is his father who is seen as an independent voice who stood up against the Bush administration w/the 9/11 commission.  If that's the best you've got, I think you should kiss this race good-bye

Bush has an approval of 30 in the state.  How often have Seate Seats changed parties hands and gone to the party of the President when the President has a 30% approval rating in the state???

NJ is a Democratic state, they elected Democrats.  The state also constantly polls more GOP than it votes.  Their are always many undecideds in NJ polls, same is true in this race (FDU, Rasmussen, etc all had about 20% undecideds).  undecideds in NJ have traditionally broken very strong for the Deocrats and this is pretty mcuch always true when their is a well know Republican on the ticket (as Kean is).  Bottom line Kean is the one with the uphill battle, he has too much to overcome in a state that is as Democratic and as anti Bush, and anti GOP as New Jersey is.