New Senate Rankings

[Smash255]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

[Smash255]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

[Smash255]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana

Likely Dem
New Jersey
South Dakota

Lean Dem
Louisiana-  Landreiu has appeared to weather the storm much better than Blanco, and Jindal is a much stronger opponent than anyone she will have to face.  Will be a battle, but she should win


Tossup
-

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Tennessee
Nebraska
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
Kentucky
New Mexico-  Domenicci could retire, which would open this up quite a bit
Oklahoma
Texas

Lean GOP
North Carolina-  If Miller does run this could be quite interesting, in for a decent fight regardless, how big the fight depends on her opponent.
Maine-  Allen is going to give Collins a real serious run, she should prevail, but its going to be tough
Virginia-  Raising $500 in Q 1 leaves a very unclear sign if Warner will run for re-election.  If he doesn't this seat is up in the air, if Mark Warner jumps in kiss it goodbye.

Tossup
Minnesota - Coleman is in for a tough race.
Oregon-  Smith is in beyond deep if Defazio decides to jump in and he is facing a possible $$ draining challenge from the right.

Lean Dem
New Hampshire-  Sununu is just too conservative for the state.  His views on Iraq really are going to hurt him and his recent vote against expanding Embryonic Stem Cell research really hurts him. 

Likely Dem
Colorado -  looks as good as dead for the GOP

I mostly agree with your predictions - Minnesota and Oregon could both easily become Lean Dem if Franken gains traction and DeFazio enters the race.  I think Louisiana is probably a toss-up though, the Democratic Party seems to be quite unpopular there now and the NRSCC will definitely target hardest there; Landrieu could end up facing an uphill battle.

I still think Louisiana is lean Dem rather than a tossup.  keep in mind that the GOP is going to be playing so much defense next year that they simply may not have the resources and $$$ they would otherwise have in order to go after a state since they have to defend so much.  Also the bench for the GOP in Louisiana isn't anything amazing.  After Vitter who is already in the Senate and Jindal who will likely be Gov, its a real big drop off and while they are strong enough to probably have a decent candidate they are unlikely to have a real strong candidate to take on Landreiu.

The GOP will not have the financial capacity or the resources that the Democrats have, but they will definitely want to do more than play a defensive strategy - and Louisiana is the most obvious assault.  Landrieu won in the past by 50% and 52%, in the post-Katrina Louisiana with an unpopular Democratic Party and in a Presidential year - I still think she is clearly vulnerable.  I agree, however, that the Republicans need to find a strong candidate and as of yet have not.

I did some figuring with the 02 numbers.  If you would cut her New Orleans margin in half she still wins, by a few thousand votes.  Also keep in mind how Republican of a year 2002 was.  Louisiana is more GOP now, and it is a Presidential year, but that difference is marginalized a bit when compared with the very Republican year of 2002.

[Smash255]

update due to Thomas's death:

Democrats
Strong Dem
Illinois
Massachusetts
Delaware
Rhode Island
West Virginia
Michigan
Arkansas
Iowa

Likely Dem
New Jersey
Montana

Lean Dem
South Dakota

Tossup
Lousiana

Republicans
Strong GOP
Idaho
Wyoming
Kansas
Alaska
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina

Likely GOP
New Mexico
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming #2

Lean GOP
Virginia
North Carolina
Oregon
Minnesota

Tossup
New Hampshire
Colorado
Maine

I'm surprised I agree with most of that list.  Still, with Collins at a 25 point lead, it's absurd to call Maine a toss-up at this point (I'd have it at Lean GOP).  I'd also have placed Colorado at Lean Dem, and put Virginia in Likely GOP, since the chance of Warner running, I feel, is small enough to justify placement there.  (It's just not competitive otherwise.)

It doesn't look like John Warner is going to run for re-election...