2004 Democratic Primary

[Canadian observer]

The recent Ipsos-Reid poll also featured data on the CPC leadership contest.


Belinda Stronach


Stephen Harper


Tony Clement

The question on leadership vote intention was asked only among self-identified Conservative supporters.  The national results are not very accurate, given the fact that the leadership contest is going to be decided on a per riding basis, hence the regional breakdown may give a more precise (though far from being 99% accurate) picture of how the race is going so far.

From Ipsos-Reid

Candidates' support in Canada
Harper 46%
Stronach 26%
Clement 17%
Don't know/refused 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

Stronach 34%
Harper 25%
Clement 22%
DK/R 19%

Quebec

Stronach 44%
Harper 24%
Clement 16%
DK/R 17%

Ontario

Harper 36%
Stronach 26%
Clement 25%
DK/R 13%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

Harper 58%
Stronach 19%
Clement 10%
DK/R 14%

Alberta

Harper 66%
Stronach 26%
Clement 5%
DK/R 3%

British Columbia

Harper 63%
Stronach 16%
Clement 12%
DK/R 13%

[Canadian observer]

If the CPC want to put Martin under pressure they should go with Stronach. If they want to let Martin off the hook, they will go with Harper...

A recent Ekos poll asked among Canadians (not just Conservative supporters) the possibility that they would vote for the Conservatives, based on who might win the leadership contest.

If Stronach wins, 45% of respondents will or would vote for the Conservatives.

If Harper becomes CPC leader, 42% of respondents will or would.

For Clement, the number is just at 36%.

The sample size is 1,020, and the MoE is at 3.1%.  This poll seems telling that whether Belinda or Stephen wins that wouldn't greatly influence the Conservative fortunes in terms of support.

[Canadian observer]

The Ekos poll also queried on federal vote intentions.

Source: the Toronto Star

Federal voting intentions in Canada

LPC 42%
CPC 32%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%

Partial Regional Breakdown

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 40%
LPC 38%
NDP 15%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 36%
NDP 15%

Alberta

CPC 63%

British Columbia

LPC 44%
CPC 27%
NDP 15%

The only good news for the Libs is that they're at 42% ... That score runs counterintuitive based on another poll only done in Quebec, the Ekos poll's regional sub-sample sizes and other data the same poll featured.

==========

I don't know the precise Ekos poll's regional sub-sample sizes but I guess they were as follows :

Atlantic: n=­±100
Quebec: n=±250
Ontario: n=±350
Man & Sask: n=±100
Alberta: n=±100
BC:n=±100

Ekos is not the sole polling firm to use such small sub-sample sizes to make data on regional vote intentions.  All firms in Canada do.  However, I doubt the Liberals may be leading in BC, given the current scandal and other previous polls showing them trailing.

==========

Another poll published the same day in French Quebecer media showed the Liberals still stucked on the floor.

Federal vote intentions in Quebec
Polling Firm: CROP (Published in La Presse)
Sample size = 607     MoE ± 4%

Bloc Québécois 48%
LPC 32%
NDP 10%
CPC 9%

==========

On a last surprising note (or pleasing for Realpolitik ), the NDP has replaced the Liberals as the most popular second choice among voters.  We see why Layton keeps going onto Martin.

The last time Ekos published a poll the Liberals were at 56%...

=========

The sponsorship scandal, or Adscam as referred in some other Canadian media, is still on the headlines almost three weeks since the story outbreak.  In The National on CBC and Le Téléjournal on Radio-Canada one or two reports among the three first reports aired are generally on matters related to the scandal.


Myriam Bédard, from Quebec City, won a bronze medal in Albertville (1992) and two gold in Lillehammer (1994) in the biathlon

An olympic gold medallist, Myriam Bédard, is now involved in the scandal.  She worked for the VIA rail crown corporation and recently told media about overbilling she witnessed.  Last Friday after she spoke out Jean Pelletier, Chairman of VIA, went out by insulting her in publicly.  He considered Bédard as a kind of pitiful lonely single woman with children.  Problem is she's not single and the original Pelletier's remarks in French were very insulting.  Pelletier had now been fired today at noon.


Former PM Jean Chrétien (right) with Jean Pelletier (left).  Pelletier was Mayor of Quebec City in the 1980's.

[Canadian observer]

That's weird... I would have thought that Harper being the ex-leader of the CA would hurt him a lot.

Yeah that's quite surprising.  Weirder is that a year ago we were talking about a record majority for Martin ...

[Canadian observer]

NDP on 15% in Quebec??

That may be caused by the random sample.  It might be just luck for the NDP in Quebec.  Maybe Ekos called more people than usual in Mercier, QC.

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Of course, the better is the BQ not to have the balance of power.  Unless they would surely get the opportunity to mess around.

A minority Liberal government would be a big problem for Martin.  He wouldn't control the parliamentary agenda completely... And couldn't easily end parliamentary inquiries into the recent sponsorship scandal that provide a very bad press to the party.

But for Martin, the biggest fallout from the possibility of obtaining a minority government after the election would be that he didn't live up to the expectations he possibly unintentionally let go (i.e., that he would get another majority government for the LPC and be a powerful campaigner).  That would surely make his political position quite fragile.  These unfulfilled expectations constitute a form of humiliation Martin will not be able to avoid if he's ever to get in minority territory.

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The same thesis is currently expressed in some Quebecer media.  The provincial Charest's governement is currently mired in protests over his plan to shake up the governmental structures and services.  BQ's strategists are going to make linking between the federal and provincial Liberals during the next campaign.  Their message would be "You don't like what the QLP is presently doing, don't vote for the federal Liberals".  For the federal Liberals, that would be a return of fortunes from the 2000 federal election.  During the 2000 campaign, the former PQ provincial government was going on with his plans on forced municipal mergers, which were opposed by many.  The federal Libs did linking by spreading the message that voting for them and not for the BQ was the best way to show dissatisfaction at the PQ's policies.  In 2000, the federal Liberals got the best score in terms of seats won since 1984: 37 on 75

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Still amazing is the way Martin handled the affair... he did very badly... to the point I doubt if he's going to stand throughout a campaign.  His government had the Auditor General report on the Sponsorship program since November.  If you do the math, Martin's team had two months to prepare a communication strategy that would avoid some fallout from the damning report.

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According to some newspaper articles I read, the last Ekos poll was done in January.

[Canadian observer]

2 months? And he did *nothing*
I had always assumed he was a canny operater...

Martin's team may have done "nothing" in the sense they didn't expect the AG report to create such public outrage and thought that would be in the headlines for just 3 days at worst. Worst for them, it's still in the news after 3 weeks.

That can be understood by the fact Liberals escaped wounds over many controversies since 1993: Military helicopters broken contracts; cost overrun of the federal guns registry; the one-billion dollar lost in the HRDC boondoggle; and others yet to be discovered.  Old habits die hard.

I too thought Martin and his team to be canny operators, but now after the outbreak of this scandal, I maintain doubts over their professional skills in keeping power.  If they're not able to be prepared for an event (i.e., the adscam) that would have been predicted two months before, how will they act like while facing unpredictable events during a campaign?

A column in an English Canadian newspaper, which I unfortunately don't remember the name of, reminded an affair that happened in BC last december and went quickly forgotten because of the ascent of Martin's government.  In Vancouver, in december, the RCMP sized documents in federal Liberal offices on allegation of wrongdoing related to membership selling.  The people involved have been Martin's organizers during his leadership campaign.  There are rumours the story might come back this month.  The RCMP inquiry may have found more than membership selling irregularities: money laundering.  If the rumours stand, Martin may have a harder time at distancing himself from the affair.  For many Canadians the question would be "If he's not able to know anything while he was Finance Minister, why would he not be able to know anything while he was campaigning for leadership?"

[Canadian observer]

It looks as though Martin had been complacent...
I knew that Chretien had dodged a hellofalot of scandels over the years (I remember something about a hotel), and it's strange that Martin doesn't seem to be able to do the same.

Still, Martin doesn't seem able to deviate all the media attention out from the sponsorship scandal.  I've watched Le Midi on Radio-Canada (kind of CBC Noon News in French) and believe me the six first reports read by the news anchor were on the scandal.  Everytime Martin is somewhere (wandering around) for his pre-election tour, he's constantly questioned over the affairs and how Martin responds: by giving lenghty answers on how he's acting to clean up government.  Of course that's laudable from him; such behaviour is far from what Chretien used to do.  However, he's still giving the impression to the general public that the scandal is important.

Tonight (Eastern Canadian Time) East-Hamilton citizens will be settled on who between Tony Valeri and Sheila Copps will get the Liberal nomination.  I don't know who will win and whoever wins bring about unintended consequences.  If Valeri wins, that'll be seen as a martydom of Copps (and Copps is hinting that she might run as a Liberal independent (or NDP) candidate in the case she loses); and if Copps wins, it'll be a humiliation for Valeri, who's a strong supporter of Martin and Minister for Transport.  Some newspapers told police officers are on duty in case there's a riot after the results are known...


Tony Valeri, Martin cabinet member


Sheila Copps, Former Deputy Prime Minister

[Canadian observer]

Isn't copps running for the NDP nomination somewhere?

There were rumours Copps might run for the NDP nomination.  However, there may be more chances she runs as a "Liberal independent".  She hasn't said her last word (or concede her last sword ? ... )

[Canadian observer]

Copp's will probably run as an Independent Liberal (the NDP were not happy about her staying in the Liberal primary), which could result in the NDP (who have re-bounded in Eastern Hamilton of late) coming up the middle. (Yes, I said the middle)

The "coming up the middle" seems less and less surprising to me.  Some recent polls put the NDP at around 20% in Ontario, which is pretty high and may prevent the reelection of many Liberals if Layton succeed to maintain or enhance such support.

Copps' defeat seems to create crazy rumours, one tells that she might try to run in another Liberal nomination contest in Quebec !!!

[Canadian observer]

Another Ipsos-Reid poll has been published, the Liberals' recovery seems to be taking a long time.  This poll has the largest sample size among the '04 Ipsos polls to date (n=2111 individuals, MoE 2.1%)

From Ipsos-Reid

Federal voting intention in Canada
LPC 38%
CPC 26%
NDP 17%
BQ 12%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 49%
CPC 31%
NDP 17%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 49%
LPC 31%
NDP 8%
CPC 6%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 31%
NDP 16%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

LPC 36%
NDP 31%
CPC 24%

Alberta

CPC 57%
LPC 24%
NDP 16%

British Columbia

LPC 33%
NDP 29%
CPC 27%
Green Party 10%

[Canadian observer]

IBy the May election they could reach 25%. I'm biased though.

... Maybe a little , but you may nevertheless be right on an NDP surge in Ontario.  At 20-25%, the NDP might prevent the re-election of many federal Liberals and let the conservatives run in the middle.  By the simple merger of the Canadian Alliance and the old-Conservatives, the CPC can expect to take at minimum 20 ridings in Ontario, these ridings are in the South and Southwest rural areas, that historically always voted Conservative before the schism of '93.

The NDP could also enquiquiner (bother) the Liberal campaign in Toronto by forcing the LPC to spend more time and energy in a region they've taken for granted since '93.  The original plan of Paul Martin (i.e., dropping the writ in early-April for election in May) is in shambles because of the Sponsorship scandal.  Right now, the LPC can expect no growth in Quebec and the West and they're now left with Ontario, where the next federal election is going to be the most competitive since 1988, that surely scares the hell out of many Liberal incumbent who haven't got the habit of working hard to campaign because of the division of the right the low support that was given for the NDP.

[Canadian observer]

Martin can wait to drop the writ until September 2005.  However waiting until next year brings along many risks for the Martin government:

1) 3 partial elections must be held in the coming month.  One should be held in St-Maurice-Champlain, Qc, the former riding of Jean Chrétien, former PM.  Liberal organizers expect to lose the seat from the Bloc Québécois.  Another election should be held in Ottawa Centre, On, where the NDP candidate is Ed Broadbent, former NDP leader (1974-1989).  This might be a win for the NDP if Ottawa-Centre is at play in a partial election.  I don't remember where's the last partial election but what's certain is that losses in partial elections will erase the momentum Martin was maintaining since December.

2) The other risk to which Martin will expose his government is related to the inquiries the government established on the issues regarding the sponsorship scandal and the Arar affair.  Those inquiries will run full steam in the fall and Martin will have to make plans to avoid the fallout from the findings the investigations will gather.  For your information, Maher Arar is a Syrian-born Canadian who while transfering in New York was arrested by US authorities and sent in Syria for interrogation (where he was tortured), even though Arar is a Canadian citizen.  He's finally back, but this affair raised questions on Canada's security policies.  Arar's wife is going to be NDP candidate in Ottawa South, On.

3) Another risk concerns the sponsorship scandal.  The affair seems more and more unstopable as new stories are uncovered.  This week, Allan Cutler, a high-ranking public servant testified on the widespread non-respect for administrative rules regarding the awarding of contracts.  His testimony points to Alfonso Gagliano, the former Public Work minister at the center of the scandal, and Prime Minister Office aides, as the men who pulled the strings in the now infamous sponsorship program that squandered 200 million dollars.  Not related to the scandal are 160 million lost at the Defence department in contract bids and 55 million the government was preparing to give to the rich Irving family of New Brunswick in shipbuilding projects.

4) At last, by waiting until fall '04 or the year 2005, Martin may give ample time for the opposition parties to be prepared.

[Canadian observer]

St-Maurice-Champlain doesn't vote Liberal... it votes Chrétien (local boy come good syndrome).
No Chrétien=probable BQ pickup.

Jean Chrétien didn't carry St-Maurice by great margins compared to Liberal scores in western areas of Montreal.  To compare, just look at Mont-Royal, Qc.

[Canadian observer]

True... but Chrétien was just about the only Liberal who could carry St-Maurice in the 1990's

Yes ... And being PM and Liberal leader surely helped...

[Canadian observer]

Obviously, before the Sponsorship Scandal, everything suggested Martin should vote quickly. By now, I'm not so sure anymore. I'll admit there's still a good argument that now's better than last year, but victory doesn't look a certainty now, and who knows what next year will bring?

Yep... who knows what may happen in the future...

It was the story of a man who was minister in the Liberal cabinet government.  Not able to wait for the departure of his boss, the PM, he quit the cabinet for an indeterminate period of time.  The minister's ambition is rewarded when he won the leadership contest, that ensued the boss' resignation, and thus became PM.  His victory was hailed as a new era for the Liberals and the new PM was about to vanquish the new Conservative leader in a landslide, based on the polls.  But the former PM left many skeletons in the closet, leaving the new PM to explain and shout he knew and could do nothing about.  The explanations of the ambitious new PM could hold for only a couple of month, but they crumbled during the election campaign.  In the campaign, the Liberal leader receives his KO in the debate.  "You could've done something; you should've said no [to the PM]", told the Conservative leader to the ambitious PM.  After the debate, support for the Liberals crumbled, and the party obtained its worst results in 20 years ...

Am I telling a story on Paul Martin? No, it's the story of John Turner, former Liberal leader from 1984 to 1990, who succeeded P.E. Trudeau.

[Canadian observer]

I'd prefer an NDP majority government.

So would I But sadly I have to have some sort of sense of Reality. That or other Canadians laugh at you.

Unfortunaltely... I'm one who's trying to avoid laughing.  Sorry

[Canadian observer]

Today's the CPC leadership contest. Here's the results, based on what I'm watching on the CPAC Channel

Stephen Harper: 12294 points
Belinda Stronach: 9501 points
Tony Clement: 2359 points

[Canadian observer]

Frank McKenna, former Liberal Premier of New Brunswick, has announced he won't seek a federal seat in the upcoming federal election.  That's bad news for Martin's Liberals, as they're scrambling to catch star candidates.  Their task has been pretty difficult since the outbreak of the Sponsorship Scandal.

[Canadian observer]

Here's an update from CTV.

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[Canadian observer]

Stephen Harper has finally won the CPC leadership contest in the first ballot.

Here's the results aired on CPAC.

Stephen Harper: 15,614.7 points
Belinda Stronach: 9,922.2 points
Tony Clement: 2,663.1 points

[Canadian observer]

Any news on Romanow? Both the Liberals and the NDP were trying to get him to run last I heard.

I got no news on Romanow.  However if he decides to run with the NDP, that would be an upset for the Liberals in Saskatchewan.

I may not be right but it seems Liberals may not get a great pool of star candidates this year.

[Canadian observer]

Stephen Harper has finally won the CPC leadership contest in the first ballot.

Here's the results aired on CPAC.

Stephen Harper: 15,614.7 points
Belinda Stronach: 9,922.2 points
Tony Clement: 2,663.1 points

Finally some good news for Martin...

What good news for Martin? Taking all the 8 Conservative remaining seats in the Atlantic while losing around 40 in the rest of the country? (i.e., minimum of 10 seats to the BQ in Quebec, 20 to the CPC in Ontario, and 10 to the CPC in the West)

[Canadian observer]

BC: Lib 18 - Con 11 - NDP 7

A week ago, during another divisive Liberal nomination contest in Richmond, BC; where 50-year old ladies were hammering each other with their purse.  A Liberal organizer told to a CBC journalist that the party might be lucky to hold 2 seats in the province.

At present Liberals' fortunes don't look good in the West.  The unpopularity of the BC provincial Liberals may influence the support given to the LPC in that province.  In Alberta, the Conservatives are at 60%, while the Libs are under 30%, base on a recent Environic polls of 1,000 Albertans.  In an area of less than 30 ridings using a first-pass-the-post electoral system, a party that gets less than 30% usually gets no seats.  In Winnipeg and the Prairies, the NDP seems to get back its natural support at the Liberals' expense.  In Winnipeg, the popular former Liberal minister Lloyd Axworthy hadn't left any successor.  I think the NDP may get more seats than the Liberals among the ridings won by a party other than the Conservative party.

[Canadian observer]

Wow, the NDP are seriously on the move.... Yay!

Siege40

I must admit I'm not an NDP supporter.  For most Quebecers, that's a strange party.  That said I acknowledged he's in a good position to replace its party back into the places where it was strong during the Lewis-Broadbent era.

If he wants to maximize his seats standing, and really make Martin sweat, I'd advise him to campaign mainly in Ontario and especially in the city of Toronto.  Layton has the advantage to be in a leadership position and he's friendly with the Mayor.  By stealing Liberal votes in TO, he wouldn't necessarily risk the election of any conservative candidate as most CA and PC candidates were generally 3rd of 4th in the last 2000 election.

I don't know if Broadbent is still going to be candidate in Ottawa-Centre.  If he's, and wins the riding, I think he may be the first NDP candidate to make a breakthrough in the capital region.

[Canadian observer]

Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

Siege40

... Another scandal may shake it again ...