What are Obama's chances at this point?

[Wonkish1]

You do realize that the distance between Very Likely and in the Bag is quite close, but the distance between very likely and 50-50 is huge.

I think odds are Obama will lose, not that he will very likely lose, nor 50-50. I think most people that are in Obama's corner would say that odds are he will win, I doubt many would say he's very likely to win.

[Wonkish1]

Point taken.

But, I think "odds are" equates to "likely", which is closer to "very likely" than to "50-50".  Maybe I should have left out the word "very".

I would agree with leaving out the "very".