The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Wonkish1]

I wouldn't call it incredible, but clearly his best.

[Wonkish1]

If you want to make some money buy Cain ahead of the next poll that comes out.

[Wonkish1]

As said before buy Cain. And you would have made 5 times your money. He is still cheap, but not as cheap. Sell him if he gets over 6 unless he starts showing real operational strength in Iowa.

Now buy Newt, too. He's going to break next.

Huntsman still dog$hit, but I guess some liberals would rather hold out hope for him than actually bet with half a brain. Otherwise there isn't really anybody else that is that badly priced.

[Wonkish1]

Short Romney just because he'll be brought back to mid to low 40s pretty quickly.

The only other person I'd buy right now is Newt because there is too much risk in Perry and Herman over the next couple days with N***erhead going on right now. How that develops will largely be dependent on who succeeds more Perry supporters painting Cain as an opportunist against Perry on a nothing story or the media in painting Perry a racist based on a bogus story. I don't know how anybody could know the answer to that.

[Wonkish1]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

[Wonkish1]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

Yeah, I saw that post.  In truth, I've been thinking about buying Cain since before his big win in Florida, after Perry seemed to stumble in the very first debate.  Trouble is, I don't think minors can trade on Intrade.

By the way, just to check are most folks on here under 20? Because damn I feel old then.

[Wonkish1]

Honestly, it looks like the Republicans, once again, will have everything decided before the first primary. Romney it is, and Romney is likely to be the first non-Christian president of the United States.

Mormon is Christian. Its just a super duper crazy Christian religion.

[Wonkish1]

At this rate, Cain might pass Perry... depending on how the SH stuff plays out.

Since I've called Perry's fall, then Cain's rise, then Newt's rise, let me now say that Cain's numbers are too cheap relative to his standings in the polls.

[Wonkish1]

Post-debate update: Gingrich surge continues.

Up: Gingrich
Down: Paul, Huntsman

Romney 70.4
Gingrich 14.3
Cain 3.9
Paul 3.8
Perry 3.7
Huntsman 2.9
Bachmann 1.0
Palin 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Christie 0.2
Johnson 0.2
Roemer 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Does anyone with at least an  eight  grade education believe Gingrich can compete with Obama in the general?

Easily!

[Wonkish1]

Rumors flying that Romney has surged to 5.2 on the jmfcstrade.

Oh, how I wish jmfcst were here...

Indeed. No fair that he's gone now. And is Wonkish still here?

Who was Wonkish supporting?

I have remained undecided for practically the entire cycle. I have a big personal admiration for Newt, but that didn't necessarily mean that I'm going to cast a vote for him. When you know him real well yes you know his benefits real well, but you also know his drawbacks. All of the candidates are mixed bags.

And I'm around just increasingly more busy.

[Wonkish1]

Rumors flying that Romney has surged to 5.2 on the jmfcstrade.

Oh, how I wish jmfcst were here...

Indeed. No fair that he's gone now. And is Wonkish still here?

Who was Wonkish supporting?

Gingrich, I believe. He certainly argued that Gingrich did not engage in lobbying.

You believed wrong. And he didn't engage in lobbying.

[Wonkish1]

Is Wonkish still here?

Either he's busy paying for his Escalade or the Gingrich implosion has driven him deep into hiding. 

EDIT: Tory, if I remember correctly Wonkish said that he was undecided, but he had quite a Gingrich fetish. He claimed to have spent hundreds of hours watching Gingrich speeches and bragged that he'd managed to parlay several of Gingrich's ideas into a "lucrative" raise. And he was a vehement defender of the idea that Gingrich had a plausible shot at the nomination, arguing with me over that fact as early as late September.

Busy working! And you have a good memory. On speeches alone a good estimate would be between 80 and 150 hours(average speech time of about 30-45 minutes). Usually listened to them in the background of doing something else. Decent amount of repetition(but significantly less than other people).

Not a raise. When I was younger I did some marketing for a start up firm that is still around. During the interview process they asked for some ideas. I produced a list of them and got the job. One of them was partially gleaned from a speech Newt gave, I believe that was the one that clinched the deal because that was the one we moved on immediately after I got contracted. That marketing idea has since become a lot more common.

[Wonkish1]

So will you be able to accept Romney as the nominee? I seem to remember you being pretty anti-Romney.

I would be curious for you to quote me ever being anti-Romney.

He has a decent share of drawbacks just like the rest of them. I see Romney as very, very slight improvement on GWB and 100 times better than John McCain. I've met a lot of Romney-like people in my industry. I understand them. Doesn't mean I agree with them, but they don't bother me that much. They were the teachers pet types when they took their econ classes in college. So they are a mixture of Neo-Keynesianism and fiscal conservatism.

If you want to understand Mitt Romney look at his key economic adviser(in 08 and now), Greg Mankiw. Some of the stuff that has come out of Mankiw's mouth is absolutely atrocious, but its still a huge improvement to the crap that comes out of people like Krugman and Stiglitz.

[Wonkish1]

Wait, jmfcst left? Why?

He was hired as a campaign advisor.

Really?  To who?

LOL, I think it was family related. More time demands by his family if I'm not mistaken.