What will happen to Scott Walker?

[jimrtex]

So does Wisconsin's recall system work like California's? There's a yes/no question, then a "Who do you want to replace Walker?" question? Because otherwise wouldn't the awful Lt. Governor take over?

An office holder is subject to recall after he has been in office for one year.  What basically happens is a new election is held, with that challenged candidate presumed to file, unless he resigns.  There can be one recall election per term.

It appears that any elected official is subject to recall, so conceivably you could also end up with 100s of school board and city and county officials being recalled.

There are 60 days to collect quite a lot of signatures.  Around 15,000 to 20,000 depending on the senate district, with on the order of 100,000 registered voters per district.  After that there is 31 days to determine the sufficiency of the petitions.  Because voters must reside in the district of the official being recalled, there could be a lot of invalid signatures.  Persons wh reside in districts where the senator was elected in 2010 may want to sign a signature, as well as Democrats in Democratic districts.

The election is then set 6 weeks later.  Candidates for senator need 400 signatures.  If more than two candidates file for a party, a primary is held instead with the special recall election 4 weeks after that.  There are 3 qualified parties in Wisconsin: Democratic, Republican, and Constitution.  The Libertarians and Green parties have lost their qualifications.  Independents can have a 5 word statement of principles on the ballot.

There is no party registration in Wisconsin and party choice is on the ballot (in secret).  So you have the potential for Republican candidates who run against Walker, and Democrats who run on the basis of going to Madison instead of Rockford.  If there is only one contested primary, there is a chance for mischief since it is easy to vote in any primary.

If there is a primary, then any the special election is held 4 weeks later, including independent candidates.  You have the possibility of independents stating their principle as "Replace All Senators" or "End Partisan Bickering" which could draw off votes.  These could be stealth candidates, since there are voters who won't vote for a Democrat (or vice versa) but might for an "independent" candidate.

About Recalls in Wisconsin

Recall Manual for Congressional, County and State Officials - click on PDF

Circulating Recall Petitions in Public Buildings - click on PDS

This last one is pretty interesting, since it covers not only circulating in public buildings but soliciting public workers and circulating by public workers (during office hours).  It basically says that this is not illegal, but may be covered by personnel policies, etc.  So you are going to get nasty squabbles about what someone actually did (eg did the school teacher actually solicit signatures from 18 YO students, or imply they would receive a better grade when they signed the petition; or was it simply the matter of the teacher using the situation as an opportunity to education and not realize that his power and prestige overwhelmed the independent reasoning of the students.

[jimrtex]

Too early to tell, but I do believe he can come out of this with strong governing over 4 years. Especially if other states go in the tank (California) and people in Wisconsin look around to see that thanks to cutting the budget they aren't printing IOUs

But they're NOT cutting the budget.

1) Unions agreed to financial concessions.

2) Without Walker's corporate tax cuts, the budget is in okay shape, and not even that bad for subsiquent FY's.

Did you know that the personal income tax deduction for medical savings accounts simply made the Wisconsin tax code consistent with the federal tax code?   Did you know that personal income taxes are not corporate taxes?  Did you know the this deduction takes effect for the 2011 tax year, which does not show up in state revenues until 2012 (next fiscal biennium)?

Did you know that the credit for business relocating to Wisconsin is so tightly drawn that hardly anyone but very small business qualify. since anyone else is likely to have conducted business in the state?  And someone who is relocating to Wisconsin is bringing jobs to Wisconsin?  These tax laws also do not have an impact until the next fiscal biennium?

Did you know that the other business tax deduction would almost entirely show up on personal income taxes - that is, the businesses benefiting are partnerships and sole proprietorships and not evil corporations?  Ditto on the fiscal year?

Did you know the deficit for the current biennium is for Medicaid and corrections items that weren't budgeted.   If you don't add them to the budget, you can't spend the money, even if it doesn't add to the deficit?