TX-28 primary

[jimrtex]

As Texas has open primaries won't Cuellar benefit from the support of Republicans and conservative Independents? 

He could, since there will be no Republican candidate this October. 

I would expect the effect to be minimal, but if does occur, the part of the CD where you would most likely see those type of votes is Guadalupe County, in the Seguin/New Braunfels part of the map.  There are a lot of German Republicans in those areas.

The problem is that the Guadalupe County was voting Republican in the 19th Century.  I don't think that they will cross-over to vote in a Democrat primary.   So far with 18 of 39 precincts in, the 3278 voted GOP, 944 Dem, with about a 55-35-9 Rodriguez-Cuellar-Morales split.

Overall, Rodriguez has about a 3000 vote lead, 57%-36%-7% with 58% of the precincts in, but also a lot of the early voting.  However there is ZIP from Webb County, so it looks pretty good for Cuellar.  If it goes to a runoff, he should win pretty easily since Webb County will come out.

[jimrtex]

How Hispanic is TX-28?

Voting Age (60% Hispanic, 7% Black (mostly in San Antonio), and 32% Anglo).

[jimrtex]

Kerry carried it 57-43 which makes me think it would be friendly towards Rodriguez.

In the 2004 primary, Cuellar polled 84% of the vote, and Webb County outpolled Bexar County, even though it has about 1/3 the population.

[jimrtex]

Nothing in from Webbe yet. Is Webbe the most populous county?

Percentages are Anglo, Black, Hispanic, Black+Hispanic, Other.  Percentage in parentheses is percentage of county in district.

Atascosa (100%) 38,628 39.6 0.7 58.6 59.1 1.3 (suburb San Antonio)
Bexar ( 20%) 285,459 49,841 17.5 11.3 70.5 81.3 1.3 (San Antonio)
Comal ( 18%) 14,050 40.0 1.9 56.9 58.5 1.5 (New Braunfels, suburb SA)
Frio (100%) 16,252 20.6 5.0 73.8 78.6 0.9 (rural)
Guadalupe (100%) 89,023 59.4 5.4 33.2 38.4 2.3 (suburb SA)
Hays ( 59%) 57,125 49.4 6.2 42.5 48.3 2.3 (San Marcos, suburb Austin)
La Salle (100%) 5,866 19.0 3.6 77.1 80.4 0.6 (rural)
McMullen (100%) 851 1.2 33.1 34.3 0.4 (empty)
Webb ( 52%) 99,776 3.5 0.4 96.1 96.1 0.3 (Laredo)
Wilson (100%) 32,408 (suburb SA) 60.9 1.4 36.5 37.8 1.4 (suburb SA)
Zapata (100%) 12,182 14.5 0.5 84.8 85.0 0.5 (south of Laredo).

The suburban counties have a lot of small towns, with people commuting into San Antonio more than outgrowth from San Antonio.  Most of what you would think of traditional suburban growth is in northern and western Bexar County, much within the city limits of San Antonio (which is larger than Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and St.Louis combined).   Guadeloupe and Comal counties have very strong German/Republican traditions dating back to the 19th century.  

San Marcos is the site of a Texas State University-San Marcos, which has around 25,000 students.  It is primarily a teacher's college, so won't be as liberal as UT-Austin, and students probably won't turn out for an election like this.  LBJ is the most notable graduate of TSU-SM (formerly Southwest Texas University).

Webb County is split between two districts, 28 and 23, which also includes parts of Bexar County and stretches west to El Paso.  Laredo is one of the fastest growing cities in the US, and something like 40% of overland imports from Mexico come through Laredo.

[jimrtex]

83% Reporting (still 0 from Webb):

Cuellar 48.2
Rodriguez 45.0
Morales 6.8

It does include the Early Voting from Webb, which could be up around 50% of the total vote.

[jimrtex]

Damn, the Republicans and DINOs must be mobilized. Cuellar ran much better in Frio and McMullen counties this time then 2004.  Hays county is about the same. Looks like the Republicans will retain this seat. I wonder if this DINO will switch parties.

Not really surprising - I guess many of the few people over there just voted for the incumbent without bothering for a minute to ask about issues. Both times.

There was a big dropoff in support for Rodriguez in the counties which were in his previous district (Frio, Atascosa, Wilson, LaSalle, and McMullen), perhaps by people who had turned out for the presidential primary and voted for the familiar name.  

Also in 2006, the vote total for the D28 race was 50 to 70% higher than the vote total for US Senator or Governor.  In 2004, it was about 20% higher than the already decided presidential primary (this is in the counties wholly in the district).

It wouldn't be any particularly surprising that Hays County voted for Rodriguez.  There was a special election for a congressional seat in West Texas where the Lubbock and Midland-Odessa areas went strongly for their candidates from those areas.  The areas to the north and south of the home areas went even stronger (up around 85%) for the closer candidate.

There might be a pretty strong segment of student vote in Hays County from TSU-SM, who wouldn't necessarily be from Laredo or San Antonio.  Those students who did vote, might be inclined to buy into Jfern's argument.