Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[ZuWo]

Familiy initiative

"Yes"-campaign:



"No"-campaign:

[ZuWo]

The polling booths closed at noon. Based on the results of mostly rural constituences the Zurich Department of Statistics has released a first projection for the canton of Zurich. According to this projection, all three proposals will be rejected. The 1:12 initiative will receive 34%, the SVP familiy iniative 39% and the proposal to increase the price of the motorway tax sticker 41% at best. If these trends hold each party will have reasons to be disappointed and happy at the end of the day.

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/abstimmungen_2013/abstimmungen_241113/resultate.html

[ZuWo]

Based on early results from the whole of the country, the analysts of the Swiss public broadcaster SRF can now project with a great deal of certainty that the three proposals have failed.

http://www.srf.ch/news/ticker?ticker=0

[ZuWo]

Hmm.

The 1:12 initiative sounded like a good idea (without knowing the details).

Considering that it wants to limit the salaries of CEOs and managers to be no more than 12-times the minimum wage, that sounds rather fair.

The minium wage in most Swiss sectors is something like 2000-3000€ a month, no ?

Even if you work in retail, you get at least 2500€ (3500$) a month, right ?

So, 30.000€ (42.000$) a month for a manager wouldn't be that Socialist ...

The initiative failed because the one argument most voters found convincing was that it is not the government's job to tell private companies how much money they can pay their employees. Switzerland's in extremely good shape economically compared to most other European countries, and in the view of a majority of parties and voters that's because of the country's relatively liberal economic policies; it is much more attractive for most foreign companies to invest in Switzerland than, for example, in Italy or France, two countries which are notorious for their excessive regulations. Most voters (myself included) are simply afraid that Switzerland will lose a great deal of its economic appeal if we place more and more restrictions on private companies and follow the example of these countries with terrible economic prospects.

[ZuWo]

Results with 5 cantons in:

1:12*

29% Yes, 71% No

5 cantons against

family initiative*

46% Yes, 54% No

4 cantons against

motorway tax sticker

40% Yes, 60% No

*= majority of cantons necessary

http://www.teletext.ch/SRF1/108-00.html

[ZuWo]

Results with 11.5 cantons in:

1:12*

31% Yes, 69% No

285'000 to 628'000 votes

11.5 cantons against

family initiative*

44% Yes, 56% No

397'000 to 513'000 votes

9.5 cantons against

motorway tax sticker

49% Yes, 61% No

358'000 to 554'000 votes

*= majority of cantons necessary

http://www.teletext.ch/SRF1/108-00.html

[ZuWo]

I like the intent behind a minimum wage but at the end of the day the arguments of job security and economic competitiveness are more important to me. This is Switzerland we're talking about, a country where the average wages are so high that already now it is hard for Swiss businesses which operate on the global stage to remain competitive. 

[ZuWo]

The official 2014 portait of the Swiss government (seven members of the Federal Council plus Chancellor):

From left to right: Johann Schneider-Ammann (FDP), Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf (BDP), Simonetta Sommaruga (SP), Didier Burkhalter (FDP, President of the Swiss Confederation), Doris Leuthard (CVP), Ueli Maurer (SVP), Alain Berset (SP), Corina Casanova (CVP, Chancellor)

This year has a lot of controversial votes on initiatives and referenda in store. The parties are also starting to prepare for next year's federal election so this year is going to be quite interesting.

Up next on February 9:

- Federal referendum on the Swiss People's Party's "mass Immigration initiative" and the "minimum wage initiative" from the left-wing parties.
- Local elections in the city of Zurich

[ZuWo]

The Zurich municipal elections will be held on February 9. This week, the election campaign has finally started. The main focus of attention will be on the election to the City Council (executive branch), which is under firm left-wing control. 7 of its 9 members are clearly left of center and the left also holds the mayor's office. On the other hand, the balance of power in the City Parliament isn't that one-sided. The Green-Liberals are often in the position to cast the decisive votes in a parliament that has become increasingly polarized between the Social Demcrats, Greens and Alternative Leftists on the one hand and the Swiss People's Party, the Free Democrats and Christian Democrats on the other hand. The one party that is very difficult to pinpoint are the Swiss Democrats, who are nationalistic but economically left-wing at the same time.

The SVP, FDP and CVP have decided to team up and form a loose coalition to unseat the Social Democratic mayor and put an end to the left-wing majority in the City Council. These are very ambitious goals in a city which is one of the most left-wing places in the German-speaking part of the country. It is, however, noteworthy that the three bourgeois parties, which were notorious for being bitterly divided in the past, have agreed to release one common election poster that depicts all of their five candidates.

The mayoral election will be a battle between two very prominent politicians. The US-born and openly homosexual incumbent Corine Mauch (SP) is challenged by the Italian-born former TV-journalist Filippo Leutenegger (FDP). My guess is that this will be a 60%-40% win in favor of the incumbent. Due to their serious effort and comparatively high level of unity the bourgeois parties might win an additional seat in the City Council, most likely at the expense of the far-left representative of the Alternative Left.

[ZuWo]

A by-election in Glarus for a seat in the Council of States took place today. Thomas Hefti (FDP), a local politican, beat Martin Landolt (BDP), member of the National Council and president of the Swiss BDP, decisively. The seat was formerly held by Pankraz Freitag (FDP), who died of a heart attack at the age of 60 last year, so this is a FDP hold.

Full results:

Dr. Thomas Hefti, Schwanden, FDP 5'571
 
Martin Landolt, Näfels, BDP 2'149
 
Vereinzelte (other) 183

http://www.gl.ch/documents/Staenderatswahlen_12_01_2014.pdf

[ZuWo]

I vaguely heard about a votation on abortion or its refunding by social security somewhere in Switzerland, could you fill us in if you have insight ?

That's right. The initiative is titled "Funding of abortion is a private matter ˗ relieving the burden on health insurance by removing the costs of termination of pregnancy from basic health insurance". The proposal is supported by the SVP, parts of the CVP and smaller conservative parties.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Swiss_to_vote_on_funding_of_abortion.html?cid=37590276

ZuWo, how will you vote in the "mass immigration" referendum ?

I'm currently leaning towards voting "yes".

[ZuWo]

Another hotly debated issue this year is whether the Swiss Air Force should purchase 22 new fighter jets (Gripen) from the Swedish arms manufacturer Saab for a total cost of $3.4 billion. The Swiss parliament approved of the deal last year but left-wing groups managed to gather 100'000 valid signatures to have a nationwide ballot. The vote is likely to be held on May 18.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Campaigners_take_aim_at_Gripen_fighter_jets.html?cid=37732070

[ZuWo]

Thanks for this thread ZuWo! It's very interesting and only speaking English I've always had trouble finding good Swiss election info.

A quick question on the referenda poll you posted above with the pie charts, are there any crosstabs showing results by demographic? I'd love to see the French vs German vs Italian regional variations. And the immigration poll broken down by nativity or country of birth, but I'm sure that's hoping for too much

Thank you for your interest in this thread! I realize that Switzerland isn't a significant country and Swiss politics might not be very interesting to most people because things are remarkably stable and there are hardly any real landslide elections. Nevertheless, this is a forum for political nerds so this is the right place for a thread like this one.

Credit where credit is due: Tender was the one who posted the poll results above. I have no doubts that he would be able to manage this thread just as well as the Austrian one if I wasn't around.

There aren't many public polls on Swiss elections and referenda but those that are released are generally quite detailed. Indeed, there is a lot of demographic information to be found in the poll Tender posted. I will post some findings in a nutshell:

- The "mass immigration initiative" is more popular in the Italian- and German-speaking part than in the French-speaking area of Switzerland. Older voters are more likely to vote yes than younger ones. Men are also slightly more supportive of the initiative than women. There is a clear partisan divide: The overwhelming majority of SVP supporters will vote for the initiative, while most supporters of the other major parties as well as most independents intend to vote against it.

- The "abortions should be privately funded" initiative is very unpopular among the French-speaking population while roughly 40% of the voters in the German and Italian areas approve of the proposal. There is no significant gender gap, but it is evident that younger voters are much more skeptical of the proposal than older citizens. Independents, SVP, FDP and CVP supporters are more likely to vote yes than the voters of the other major parties but there is no clear majority in favor of the initiative in any party.

For more detailed information and colored graphs have a look at this link (unfortunately, all the information is in German):

http://gfsb.iweb4.intellexweb.com/showreport.aspx?reportuid=69f6aa88-2a7c-41c9-af05-5b8e21329651

[ZuWo]

     Isn't it usually the case that German-speaking Switzerland is more right-wing than French-speaking Switzerland? I'm hardly an expert on the matter, but that is what my observations have tended to bear out.

Yes, that's usually the case. On the one hand there is a clear urban-rural divide but there are also regional differences. Broadly speaking, the French-speaking cantons are more left-wing on economic issues and more socially liberal. Historically they also tended to be more EU-friendly than both the German-speaking and Italian areas but that's been changing lately because there aren't many Swiss people left who want the country to join the European Union.

[ZuWo]

     Isn't it usually the case that German-speaking Switzerland is more right-wing than French-speaking Switzerland? I'm hardly an expert on the matter, but that is what my observations have tended to bear out.

Yes, that's usually the case. On the one hand there is a clear urban-rural divide but there are also regional differences. Broadly speaking, the French-speaking cantons are more left-wing on economic issues and more socially liberal. Historically they also tended to be more EU-friendly than both the German-speaking and Italian areas but that's been changing lately because there aren't many Swiss people left who want the country to join the European Union.

Is there really such a language divide if you correct for urbanisation? My understanding was always Zürich and Basel being quite (greenish-)left. The same probably applies to Geneva / Lausanne/ Montreux, but the latter should account for more of the French-speaking population, than Zürich and Basel are representing the German-speakers.

What is remarkable in the French-speaking part of Switzerland is that you have small towns like Le Locle that are extremely left-wing (the City Parliament of Le Locle has 40 seats, 17 of which are held by members of the socialist/communist Partei der Arbeit, 6 by Greens, 5 by Social Democrats and only 12 by members of centrist or center-right parties). Towns of the same size in the German-speaking part of Switzerland are overwhelmingly dominated by centrist to right-wing parties. That's why I would argue that there is a political divide among the language regions which goes beyond urbanisation.  

[ZuWo]

    Isn't it usually the case that German-speaking Switzerland is more right-wing than French-speaking Switzerland? I'm hardly an expert on the matter, but that is what my observations have tended to bear out.

Yes, that's usually the case. On the one hand there is a clear urban-rural divide but there are also regional differences. Broadly speaking, the French-speaking cantons are more left-wing on economic issues and more socially liberal. Historically they also tended to be more EU-friendly than both the German-speaking and Italian areas but that's been changing lately because there aren't many Swiss people left who want the country to join the European Union.

    There is also a question that occurred to me. I found out that Germany and Italy are both significant sources of immigration to Switzerland. How well would you say that the politics of these immigrants align with those of the natural-born Swiss Germans and Swiss Italians respectively?

Interesting question. From what I know many Italians who immigrated to Switzerland decades ago had close ties with trade unions and could therefore be considered solidly left-wing. A large number of those first-generation immigrants never acquired the Swiss citizenship, though, so their influence on Swiss politics should probably not be overestimated.

Immigration from Germany has reached its peak in the last few years. Zurich, my hometown, is a place which experienced the highest influx of immigrants from Germany so there are quite a few Germans in my circle of acquaintances. I hardly ever discuss Swiss politics with Germans, though. Indeed, Swiss people have a major flaw; they can react quite sensitively when foreigners - Germans in particular - criticize aspects of Swiss culture and politics, and most Germans know that. What I can say, however, is that most Germans who come here are astonished by certain phenomena regarding Swiss politics. The perceived extremism of the Swiss People's Party, for example, is something that strikes many of them as odd. The political views of most German immigrants are therefore probably less right-wing than the Swiss mainstream. But considering the lack of what I would call generally accepted right-wing parties in Germany I am not particularly surprised about this.  

[ZuWo]

Less than three weeks to go until the municipal elections in Zurich take place. Time for a quick overview.

While the candidates for City Council, the executive of the Zurich, receive the biggest share of public attention the election for City Parliament are of equal importance. This is how Zurich voted in 2010:

SP: 30,3%, 39 seats
SVP: 18,6%, 24 seats
FDP: 14%, 18 seats
GP: 11,4%, 14 seats
GLP: 9,8%, 12 seats
CVP: 5,7%, 7 seats
AL: 4,2%, 5 seats
EVP: 3%, 4 seats
SD: 1,9%, 2 seats
EDU: 0,7%, 0 seats
PFZ: 0,5%, 0 seats

Total left (SP+GP+AL): 45,9%, 58 seats
Total center (GLP+CVP+EVP): 18,5%, 23 seats
Total right (SVP+FDP+EDU+PFZ): 33,7%, 42 seats
Rest (SD): 1,9, 2 seats


Looking at these figures one may be tempted to believe that there is a center-right majority in the City Parliament. However, while the left-wing parties often vote in the same way the centrist and right-wing parties hardly ever manage to find common ground; the SVP parlamentarians are often isolated and the GLP, EVP, SD and CVP members of Parliament frequently vote with the red-green parties. Thus, the City Parliament can't be considered an effective counterweight to the red-green City Council.

[ZuWo]

An interesting turn of events: The proponents of the SVP "mass immigration initiative" have gained quite a lot of ground in the last few days and weeks. The lead of the no-campaign has been reduced from 18 to just 7%. According to gfs.bern, pollster for the Swiss Broadcaster SRF, this change is mainly due to independents, who are now cleary in favor of the initiative, and the fact that more people are now certain that they are going to vote. In Switzerland, the right tends to benefit from higher turnout.    



http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Protest_vote_could_be_decisive_at_ballot_box.html?cid=37828654

[ZuWo]

The "mass immigration" referendum could turn out to be quite close.

I'd probably vote "Yes" on this and against the Green-Party line, because I think that the current 1.2% growth rate in Switzerland is counter-productive. I think population growth rates above 0.5% are not benefitting the economy anymore, and rather creates problems like big rent-increases in cities where the immigrants move to, because the speed of building new apartments is slower than the overall population growth and because of further "Zersiedelung" of Switzerland (basically more suburbs being created at the disadvantage of the environment).

That's exactly why the Green Party of Ticino supports the initiative as well despite the fact that the national party is vehemently opposed to it. Indeed, Ticino is facing other serious problems because of the free movement of persons agreement between Switzerland and the EU as well. Due to the fact that there are so many well-educated young Italians who are unemployed and are willing to work in low-skilled jobs in Switzerland, the local workforce is at an inherent disadvantage. Therefore it's no surprise that political experts expect that a large majority of the people in Ticino will vote for the initiative.

Realizing that the tide has turned, opponents of the initiative have started to emphasize the potential negative consequences if there is a yes-majority. They say that the EU will not accept additional Swiss restrictions on immigration and terminate important bilateral contracts, which would put an end to the free movement of persons agreement between Switzerland and the EU. The SVP, however, says that this is not true and that the Swiss government will be in a position to negotiate with the EU to get a better deal for Switzerland if the initiative is adopted. As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in between.

[ZuWo]

Pressure mounts on Johann Schneider-Ammann, one of the seven members of the Federal Council and Economics Minister of Switzerland: the Bernese tax authorities are investigating the Ammann construction group, which is owned by Schneider Ammann's wife. Before his election to the Federal Council, Schneider-Ammann was CEO of the company.
In order to save on taxes the Ammann Group had placed several hundreds of millions of dollars in assets in Jersey and Luxembourg until 2008. In 2009, a year before Ammann's election to the Federal Council, all the money was transferred to Switzerland.

At least for now he can still try to ignore and sit out the issue because the left-wing parties are the only ones to call for his resignation. However, should the Bernese tax authorities reveal that the Ammann Group broke the law under the leadership of Schneider-Ammann he will probably be forced to resign. If he has to resign, both the SVP and the Greens can be expected to field a candidate for his seat.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/Tax_authorities_eye_minister_s_family_firm_.html?cid=37847114

[ZuWo]

ZuWo out of curiosity, whereabouts in Switzerland do you live and what are your opinions on these referenda?

Understand if you'd rather not say to keep everything, ya know, professional

Zurich, the biggest city in Switzerland.

I have voted "yes" on the mass immigration and the abortion initiative and "no" on the railway infrastructure bill.

[ZuWo]

Due to a number of regional elections and controversial initiatives and referenda many municipalities started counting votes yesterday. I had a shift as poll worker yesterday afternoon and will have another one later today. Turnout is definitely unusually high - 55% or more can be expected.

[ZuWo]

High turnout is usually good news for the "against mass immigration" side.

Polls are closing in about 30 minutes, right ?

I predict:

55-45 against mass immigration (big swing towards this side in the final weeks)

59-41 abortion should remain publicly funded (about what the polls said)

60-40 in favor of the rail initiative (about what the polls said)

Your estimates seem to be quite accurate: The first 80 municipalities to report (Kanton Aargau, a couple percentage points more conservative than the Swiss average) show the following results:

57% yes to the SVP-initiative against mass immigration
62% no to the initiative to end public funding of abortions
53% to the railway initiative

http://www.aargauerzeitung.ch/aargau/kanton-aargau/erste-stimmen-sind-ausgezaehlt-ja-mehrheit-fuer-svp-initiative-127651571

[ZuWo]

The first projection for the entire Kanton Zürich released by the Department of Statistics of Zurich looks as follows:

54% no to the mass immigration initiative

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/urnengang.html

This is going to be very close.

[ZuWo]

The first projection for the entire Kanton Zürich released by the Department of Statistics of Zurich looks as follows:

54% no to the mass immigration initiative

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/urnengang.html

This is going to be very close.

Interesting ...

Of those counted, 57% are Yes.

But the projection for all is only 46% Yes.

Will Zurich City have such a big impact ?

The bigger towns and Zurich City are still missing in the count. Since the urban regions are quite populous and considerably more left-wing than the rest of the canton this will indeed impact the final result quite a bit.
It is possible that the unusually high turnout rate mostly benefits the right, which could turn this prediction upside down, though.