Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[ZuWo]

Obwalden, one of the three founding cantons of the Swiss Confederation and also one of the smallest, elects a new parliament and cantonal government today. Obwalden, along with a few other cantons in central Switzerland, is one of the remaining Christian Democratic strongholds. The current composition of the parliament looks as follows:



The cantonal government has five seats and is under firm CVP/FDP control (two CVP, one CSP and two FDP seats). Four of the five incumbents are running for re-election while the SVP is trying to finally win a seat as well.

Hans Wallimann (CVP) - incumbent
Niklaus Bleiker (CVP) - incumbent
Franz Enderli (CSP) - incumbent
Paul Federer (FDP) - incumbent
Büchi-Kaiser Maya (FDP)
Sigrist Albert (SVP)

http://ilz.ow.ch/gesetzessammlung/GEW2014/Regierungsratswahl.htm

[ZuWo]

^^
Perfect summary.

In short, this election is just one more example of the slow but steady decline of the once dominant Catholic parties in central Switzerland (and the canton of Valais). Both the CVP and CSP are still very strong in these rural and conservative cantons but they are gradually losing voters to the SVP. It is a bit surprising that the SVP still hasn't managed to gain a foothold in Obwalden's executive branch but I guess it is merely a question of time until that happens.
Given the demographics of the canton any election is an uphill climb for a left-wing party (the Green Party Obwalden actually dissolved in 2009) but it baffles me that the SP didn't even contest the election for the cantonal government. The left in Obwalden apparently seems to be content with remaining a negligible force.

[ZuWo]

The canton of Nidwalden has elected its members of parliament as well as the cantonal government today. A new method to allocate the seats in the parliamentary election ("Doppelter Pukelsheim") which benefits the smaller parties, i.e. the Greens and the Social Democrats in this case, has been used this time. The final results in the legislative election are as follows:

SVP: 17 seats (-2)
CVP: 17 seats (-1)
FDP: 15 seats (-2)
GPS: 8 seats (+3)
SPS: 3 seats (+2)

In the election for cantonal government, which consists of seven members, the two SVP incumbents have been re-elected with the highest number of votes. Two FDP incumbents have won re-election as well. However, the Free Democrats have held three seats so far and their third candidate has not received enough votes to be elected on the first ballot. Of the three CVP candidates running to retain the two Christian Democratic seats, one of them an incumbent and the other two new candidates, only one has managed to attract a sufficient level of popular support. The two candidates that are further behind are the third SVP candidate and the only left-winger in the race, a Green Party member:

Ueli Amstad (SVP - incumbent): 9,280 votes ELECTED
Res Schmid (SVP - incumbent): 8,428 ELECTED
Yvonne von Deschwanden (FDP - incumbent): 8,169 ELECTED
Hans Wicki (FDP - incumbent): 8,075 ELECTED
Karin Kayer (CVP): 7,858 ELECTED
------------------------------------------------------------
Alfred Bossard (FDP): 7,347
Othmar Filliger (CVP): 7,293
Alois Bissig (CVP - incumbent): 7,102
Martin Zimmermann (SVP): 5,329
Conrad Wagner (GPS): 5,203 

Full results:

http://www.wahlen.nw.ch/

[ZuWo]

This Sunday is going to be election day in the canton of Bern. Bern is a bilingual canton which is very rural on the one hand but has a few comparatively sizable cities such as Bern, Biel and Thun. Traditionally, Bern has always been a conservative canton. However, since the various center-right parties (e.g. CVP, FDP, BDP) and the SVP didn't cooperate in past elections the left (SP and Greens) actually holds four of the seven seats in the cantonal government. At the same time, the cantonal parliament is under firm center-right control so Bern is a canton which is notoriously difficult to govern.

This weekend's election is probably going to be different for a variety of reasons, though. For the first time in many years the three parties SVP, BDP and FDP have been able to make a deal and form a coalition for the election for cantonal government. Two SVP, one BDP and one FDP candidate are running together against the four left-wing incumbents, which makes this race quite unpredictable (what matters more - the conservative leanings of the canton or the power of incumbency?). In addition, the Bernese constitution is a decisive factor in the election as well: According to the constitution, at least one of the seven seats in the cantonal government must be held by a person from the French-speaking part of Bern ("Jura Bernois"). Indeed, both the SVP and the SP are running a candidate from that region so it will be interesting to see which of the two gets more votes.

[ZuWo]

The results of the first three rural precincts (Corgémont, Sonceboz-Sombeval and Arch) for the parliamentary election have been reported and they seem to point to gains for the SVP.

Results can be accessed here:

http://www.growa.apps.be.ch/growa/action/GemeindenUebersichtAction.do?method=read&sprache=d

[ZuWo]

With the results of more municipalities in the pro-SVP trend appears to solidify. The SVP gains are mostly at the expense of the BDP. Former SVP voters who switched to the BDP are coming home, it seems.

[ZuWo]

All the votes have been tallied and the results of the elections in Bern are as follows:

Election for parliament (Grosser Rat)

SVP: 49 seats (+5)
SP: 36 (-2)
FDP: 17 (0)
GP: 15 (0)
BDP: 14 (-11)
EVP: 12 (+2)
GLP: 11 (+7)
EDU: 5 (0)
PSA: 3 (0)
GPB-DA: 1 (+1)

Both the Swiss People's Party and the Green Liberals are the winners of the election. The BDP suffers a landslide defeat while there aren't any major changes on the left of the political spectrum. The balance of power remains essentially unchanged since the center-right parties still have a comfortable majority.

Let's focus on the election for cantonal government (Regierungsrat), which has produced a somewhat weird result:

1. Béatrice Simon (BDP - incumbent): 128,862 votes
2. Christoph Neuhaus (SVP - incumbent): 119,509
3. Bernhard Pulver (GP - incumbent):  118,732
4. Hans-Jürg Käser (FDP - incumbent): 109,600
5. Andreas Rickenbach (SP - incumbent): 108,822
6. Barbara Egger-Jenzer (SP - incumbent): 105,006
7. Philippe Perrenoud (SP - incumbent, candidate from Jura Bernois): 86,469
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Manfred Bühler (SVP - candidate from Jura Bernois): 94,957

As you can see, Philippe Perrenoud was re-elected despite receiving fewer votes than Manfred Bühler. Both candidates are from Jura Bernois, the French-speaking part of Bern which has a constitutionally mandated right to one of seven seats in the cantonal government. How is such an outcome possible? We need to have a separate look at the Perrenoud's and Bühler's vote share in Jura Bernois to get an answer to this question:

1. Philippe Perrenoud: 5,889 votes
...
4. Manfred Bühler: 4,919 votes

The Bernese constitution states that the winner of the "Jura Bernois" seat shall be determined according to a specific mathematic formula, the details of which I am not entirely familiar with. In short, the candidates' vote shares in both the Jura Bernois region and the entire canton are weighed separately. Apparently Perrenoud's lead of 980 votes in this particular region were just enough to offset Bühler's lead of nearly 8,500 votes at the cantonal level.

This voting system was established more than 20 years ago in order to ensure that the citizens of Jura Bernois get the representation they want. It will undoubtedly come under scrutiny in the next legislative period.

http://www.maja.apps.be.ch/maja/internetAction/MajaInternetAction.do?method=read&typ=4&sprache=d

[ZuWo]

The polling institute gfs.bern has released its first opinion poll regarding the federal ballot on May 18. Swiss citizens are going to have their say on three constitutional amendments (an amendment to establish a federal minimum wage of CHF 4000, a proposal to ban convicted paedophiles from working with children, and an proposal to boost the role of family doctors in the Swiss health System) and one bill (the planned purchase of 22 Swedish Gripen fighter jets for 3.1 billion):



http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Minimum_wage_fails_to_seduce_Swiss.html?cid=38353726

[ZuWo]

One of the news stories that has dominated the political discourse in Switzerland over the course of the last few days are reports of a "private journey" of a few federal SVP politicians to the Islamic Republic of Iran. In fact, the SVP Delegation met Iranian officials for informal talks and criticized the existing sanctions on Iran, which are also supported by Switzerland.



The SVP is known for being Israel-friendly and critical of Islam so this visit might appear odd at first glance. However, the party has repeatedly attacked the alleged "superpower politics" of the USA and the European Union and demanded that the Swiss government must stop yielding to foreign pressure and should return to a more strict definition of neutrality. Indeed, the SVP's stance on foreign policy in general also became obvious some time ago when a leading SVP MP scolded the Swiss media and the foreign minister for being blindly "anti-Russian" regarding the ongoing crisis in the Ukraine.

[ZuWo]

New poll on the question whether or not the Swiss Air Force should be equipped with 22 Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets for a total cost of 3.1 billion Swiss Francs:



So while the no-campaign still has the lead, there appears to be a noticeable trend in favor of the Gripen jets. It's probably going to be very close on May 18.

http://www.blick.ch/news/politik/jetzt-steht-ueli-maurer-selbst-im-regen-id2830735.html

The major centrist and right-wing parties (SVP, FDP, CVP and BDP) support the proposal and those on the left (SP, GP, GLP) oppose it. Both the right and the left agree that the Swiss Air Force is going to have to phase out its 42 Northrop F-5E Tiger II in a few years. However, whereas the right-leaning parties say that they need to be replaced and that the Gripen jets are suitable for this purpose, the left either claims that less money should be spent or that there is no need for new fighter jets at all.

Northrop F-5E Tiger II



Saab JAS 39 Gripen

[ZuWo]

If Austria is ready to pay for that, sure. Sounds like a good deal.

The newspaper "Sonntagsblick" has not only released a poll on the Gripen question but also published a survey on the minimum wage initiative. As expected, the left-wing proposal to establish a national minimum wage of 4000 Swiss Francs a month doesn't stand a chance.

[ZuWo]

gfs.bern has conducted another (probably the last) poll on the referenda of May 18.

As it turns out the two most competitive issues are the vote on the gripen fighter jets, where there is a clear right-left divide, and the initiative which seeks to establish a lifetime ban for convicted paedophiles from working with children and is mainly opposed from the left and the FDP.



Meanwhile, the minimum wage initiative is gradually losing support - only 30% of the respondents said that they would vote yes, while nearly two-thirds are against it.

Having understood that they need to convince more of their supporters to vote for the gripen fighter jets, the chairmen of the four main centrist/right-leaning parties SVP, FDP, BDP and CVP had a rare appearence together in Bern today. Most people may have already voted since about 90% of the voting population usually cast their ballots by mail so its questionable whether this will have much of an impact:



http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Fighter_jet_purchase_remains_up_in_the_air.html?cid=38521920

[ZuWo]

The voting period for the May 18 referenda ends in six days. Campaign posters can be found almost everywhere. Here are a couple of examples:

[ZuWo]

[ZuWo]

The people have spoken. The Swiss voters have rejected the Swedish Gripen fighter jets as well as a monthly federal minimum wage of 4000 Swiss Francs. At the same time, a bill concerning family doctors, which was hardly debated at all, and the initiative concerning pedophiles have both passed with very comfortable majorities:

Gripen:

1,344,959 yes - 1,542,875 no
46'6% - 53,4%
12 cantons for, 11 against

minimum wage:

687,743 yes - 2,209,249 no
23,7% - 76,3%
all 23 cantons against

federal bill on family doctors:

2,479,293 yes - 337,303 no
88% - 12%
all 23 cantons for

"lifetime ban on convicted paedophiles from working with children initiative":

1,819,211 yes - 1,045,110 no
63,5% - 36,5%
all 23 cantons for

Maps to follow

[ZuWo]

Switzerland, on balance, continues to be one of the better countries in Europe politically speaking.

I guess that's the view of a minority on the Atlas Forum.

Working at the local polling station was particularly interesting today. An official delegation from San Sebastian paid us a visit because they wanted to see how direct democracy works in Switzerland. They stayed for quite a long time, asked questions and took many pictures. A few years ago a parliamentary delegation from South Korea visited us, too.

[ZuWo]

Switzerland, on balance, continues to be one of the better countries in Europe politically speaking.

I guess that's the view of a minority on the Atlas Forum.

Working at the local polling station was particularly interesting today. An official delegation from San Sebastian paid us a visit because they wanted to see how direct democracy works in Switzerland. They stayed for quite a long time, asked questions and took many pictures. A few years ago a parliamentary delegation from South Korea visited us, too.

Don't really understand that. What's different about the election administration, whether you're voting on ballot questions or for a parliamentary election?

Having theoretical knowledge of a certain voting system and having first-hand insight into how referenda in a direct democracy work are two different things, I guess. Perhaps the Basques want to see whether that's a kind of system they should adopt once they are fully independent.

[ZuWo]

Detailed results and maps of the referenda can be found here.

The result of the Gripen vote is generally interpreted as a major defeat for minister of defence Ueli Maurer (SVP), who campaigned heavily for the fighter jets in all parts of the country. Maurer, the former SVP chairman and still a polarizing figure, is not very popular in the French-speaking region of Switzerland so this might partly explain why the proposal failed there by such a decisive margin. Indeed, if you look at the results by region you will see that there is - once again - a discernible gap between German and French Switzerland as a whole. As usual, the Italian-speaking region fits somewhere in between:

Switzerland

urban areas: 38% yes, 62% no
suburban areas: 47.9% yes, 52.1% no
isolated towns: 50% yes, 50% no
rural areas: 52.4% yes, 47.6% no

German-speaking part only

urban areas: 40.4% yes, 59.6% no
suburban areas: 51.9% yes, 48.1% no
isolated towns: 55.7% yes, 44.3% no
rural areas: 57.7% yes, 42.3% no

French-speaking part only

urban areas: 29.3% yes, 70.7% no
suburban areas: 34.3% yes, 65.7% no
isolated towns: 30.2% yes, 69.8% no
rural areas: 36.8% yes, 63.2% no

Italian-speaking part only

urban areas: 43.3% yes, 56.7% no
suburban areas: 45% yes, 55% no
isolated towns: no data - apparently there are no towns which match the relevant criteria
rural areas: 49.3% yes, 50.7% no

Speaking in very broad terms, we can conclude that the urban and French-speaking areas were victorious this time. However, a closer look at the results show that this narrative is probably too simplistic: the results in Western Switzerland (where people speak French), for instance, voted against the fighter jets in a fairly homogeneous way - the urban/rural divide was considerably smaller than in German Switzerland.

A pretty neat summary of what happened on Sunday:

[ZuWo]

Apart from the federal referenda there were a handful of important regional elections.

- Canton of Glarus: Election to the Swiss Council of States (akin to the US Senate - each canton has two seats)

Incumbent This Jenny (SVP) resigned for health reasons. Seven candidates were running for the vacant seat. None of the candidates managed to received a majority of the votes on the first ballot. The second ballot will be held on June 1.

1st ballot results:

Majority: 5,715 votes
------------------------------------------------------
Werner Hösli (SVP): 3'597 votes
Karl Stadler (Grüne): 1'813
Markus Landolt (independent): 1'531
Stefan Müller (CVP): 1'293
Franz Landolt (GLP): 1'182
Martin Leutenegger (FDP): 1'005
Hansjürg Rhyner (FDP): 633

http://www.gl.ch/xml_1/internet/de/intro.cfm

- Canton of Grisons: Cantonal Elections

Executive Election (5 seats)

Barbara Janom Steiner (BDP): 32'666 votes - ELECTED
Mario Cavigelli (CVP): 32'057 - ELECTED
Christian Rathgeb (FDP): 27'009 - ELECTED
Jon Domenic Parolini (BDP): 25'309 - ELECTED
Martin Jäger (SP): 22'575 - ELECTED
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Heinz Brand (SVP): 20'619
Jürg Kappeler (GLP): 9'218
 
Legislative Election

FDP: 32 seats (-6)
CVP: 31 (-2)
BDP: 27 (+1)
SP: 15 (+3)
SVP: 8 (+4)
GLP: 2 (0)
independents: 2 (0)

http://www.gr.ch/DE/Medien/Mitteilungen/MMStaka/2014/Seiten/2014051806.aspx
http://www.gr.ch/DE/Medien/Mitteilungen/MMStaka/2014/Seiten/2014051807.aspx

[ZuWo]

The people of Glarus elect one of their two Councillors of States (Ständerat) and a new cantonal parliament (called Landrat).

The three candidates running for the seat in the Council of States are Werner Hösli (SVP), Karl Stadler (Green Party) and Stefan Müller (CVP). Hösli received 3'597 votes on the first ballot while Stadler and Müller only got 1'813 and 1'293 votes. Therefore, anything but a victory for the SVP candidate would have to be considered a major surprise. If Hösli wins, this will be an SVP hold.

The election for cantonal parliament is probably going to be more interesting. The results of the previous election look as follows:

[ZuWo]

As usual Glarus counts very quickly. As expected, Werner Hösli has won the election, carrying each of the three voting districts:

Werner Hösli (SVP): 4'221 votes
Karl Stadler (GP): 2'294
Stefan Müller (CVP): 2'058

SVP hold

Results by voting districts

Glarus North:

Hösli: 1'371
Stadler: 976
Müller: 770

Glarus:

Hösli: 1'072
Stadler: 833
Müller: 617

Glarus South:

Hösli: 1'778
Stadler: 465
Müller: 691

As a consequence, the composition of the Swiss Council of States remains unchanged:



CVP - 13 seats
FDP - 11
SP - 11
SVP - 5
GP - 2
GLP - 2
BDP - 1
Independent - 1 (member of the SVP caucus)

http://www.gl.ch/documents/Ersatz_Staenderatswahlen_zweiter_Wahlgang_1_06_2014.pdf

[ZuWo]

The results of the election for cantonal parliament have been published. In short, things have remained extremely stable. If anything, it can be said that the left (SP+GP+GLP) has gained a single seat at the expense of the center (BDP+CVP):

SVP: 17 seats (no change)
FDP: 12 (no change)
BDP: 10 (-1)
SP: 8 (-1)
GP: 7 (no change)
CVP: 6 (no change)
GLP: 2 (+2 - did not contest the 2010 elections)

http://www.gl.ch/xml_1/internet/de/intro.cfm

[ZuWo]

A graph to highlight the federal figures Georg Ebner posted:

Result of the gfs.bern survey (federal election in October 2015)



I'd take these percentages with a grain of salt, though. While the survey shows that the SVP may lose and the SP gain a point or two, the cantonal elections which have been held since the last federal election actually suggest the opposite. Now it's fair to say that different factors are at play in cantonal and federal elections but that's something which shouldn't be ignored. (With the exception of the prognosticated FDP share the figures given for the other parties, however, seem plausible.)

As has always been the case in the past few election cycles the April 2015 legislative election in the canton of Zurich should be a pretty reliable indicator of where the national mood really is; in 2011, for example, all of the established parties lost ground in Zurich whereas the more recently formed parties, BDP and GLP, were successful. Indeed, this was also true for the federal result a few months later. 

[ZuWo]

The Ecopop initiative was launched by political activists with a green-left background. The main left-wing parties oppose it, but its main representatives are environmentalists, and their main arguments are of an ecological nature.

Interestingly, the initiative pursues two seemingly very different goals. Firstly, it says that the population of Switzerland may only grow by 0,2% each year. To put this in perspective, net immigration to Switzerland was around 87,000 last year, which is a growth rate of more than 1%.
Secondly, the initiative seeks to mandate that a tenth of Switzerland's expenditures on foreign aid (around CHF 150 million) shall be spent on family planning and birth control measures in third-world countries on an annual basis.

Under normal circumstances one would expect such a proposal to be rejected by the voters at the ballot box. However, this is already the second federal referendum dealing with the issue of immigration this year and everybody's panicking after the SVP's mass-immigration initiative won the support of a (very narrow) majority of the voters back in February.

As was pointed out by Georg Ebner, right-wing voters will be crucial in determining the outcome of the initiative. The SVP formally opposes Ecopop for two main reasons - the 0,2% cap is considered too restrictive and the birth control measures in third-world countries are regarded as none of Switzerland's business. Nevertheless, many SVP members and supporters who are still unhappy about the high immigration rates and believe the federal government is not actively trying to implement the SVP mass-immigration initiative feel tempted to vote yes.

The left is also split on the issue to a certain degree because the proponents of Ecopop almost exclusively cite ecological reasons to support them - reducing immigration and propagating birth control in poor countries help reduce carbon emissions both in Switzerland and on a global level, they claim. But the latter point is also why the initiative is heavily criticized by many left-wing politicians; they accuse the Ecopop proponents of being 'eco-fascists' as they essentially promote eugenics in places like Africa. 

As you can see, it's an ugly campaign. I'm convinced that the initiative will be quite firmly rejected at the end of the day, though.

[ZuWo]

I voted yes in the February immigration referendum but will vote against Ecopop; putting a 0,2% cap in our constitution seems way too rigid to me. Also, I'm not too keen on interfering in matters of family planning in other parts of the world.

I actually see where the left-wing critics of this idea are coming from whose caricature of this aspect of Ecopop basically boils down to "the Western world is responsible for the lion's share of the global carbon emissions so let's tell African parents 'hey, please don't have too many kids, overpopulation is bad for the environment'".