For the millionth time, Rick Perry's terrible record will be his downfall. He won't be Generic R for long. (and why is Oklahoma a toss-up?)
What's so horrible about Perry's record? Texas appears to be economically successful, and in 2012 the economy will be the decisive issue so I don't see why that would hurt Rick Perry (even if Perry probably isn't responsible for the state of the economy in Texas).
Texas's growth has come from the rich growing richer. Like any bubble, just below the surface Texas consistently remains a terrible state if you aren't rich and white. 9th largest income inequality gap in the nation, chronic corruption (up to and including Perry himself), and a heap of skeletons in the closet.