The Great Brazil Topic

[Paleobrazilian]

Wait, it seems PT only has 60 members in the Congress now.  I recall they won 70 seats in the 2014 elections.  What happen to the other 10?  Did they defect to another party?

Yes. PT has lost about 10 Congressmen and hundreds of Mayors around the country over the last months.

[Paleobrazilian]

When voting started in theory only 504 out of 513 Members of Congress were present.  Looking at the numbers so far a bunch of those 9 must have showed up since we only have 2 absences.

Many who didn't register their presence earlier were PT Congressmen who were trying to pretend the turnout was lower than it trully was.

[Paleobrazilian]

367-137-7-2 is the final tally. The opposition had guessed they'd have 366 votes yesterday, so they knew perfectly the support they had.

[Paleobrazilian]

Cunha will formally communicate the Senate of tonight's decision tomorrow. Then Senate President Renan Calheiros (PMDB/AL) will start proceedings on the Senate, ordering the formation of a special commission. Some are afraid that Calheiros, who dislikes Temer, will try to delay this order for a few days. No matter what, it's pretty much a lock that the President of the commission will be Sen. Antonio Anastasia (PSDB/MG) and the rapporteur will be Sen. Ana Amelia Lemos (PP/RS). Both are solidly on the impeachment side so the works of the commission should be quick.

[Paleobrazilian]

Senate counts so far:

Folha: 47 x 19, 15 undeclared/undecided
Estadão: 44 x 21, 16 undeclared/undecided
O Globo: 46 x 20, 15 undeclared/undecided
Veja: 45 x 19, 17 undeclared/undecided

Under all accounts, it's highly likely that the process will be opened by the Senate, suspending Dilma for up to 180 days.

[Paleobrazilian]

Maybe the PT will turn around and stab Acting President Temer in the back and vote to impeach him.

They are already asking it since last week

But they wouldn't have the 2/3rds majority required to pull that off, right?

Highly unlikely unless a smoking gun comes up.

BTW, I've heard some rumblings that the Senate will open its process against Dilma early next month. Temer travelled to São Paulo today, where he'll have meetings, probably to discuss what his cabinet will look like. His plan is to reduce the number of Ministries to around 20 (right now there are nearly 40 ministries in Brazil), but to avoid losing support from all the parties that helped him yesterday, he'd probably give them many 2nd and 3rd tier posts.

Here's what a Temer cabinet may look like if some rumors are to be believed (plus, a few guesses of mine):

Chief of Staff: Eliseu Padilha (PMDB/RS)
Government Secretary: Moreira Franco (PMDB/SP)
Finances: Henrique Meirelles (PSD/SP)
Central Bank: Ilan Goldfajn (Ind/RJ)
Planning/Budget: José Serra (PSDB/SP)
Foreign Affairs: Sergio Silva do Amaral (Ind/SP)
Defense: Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS)
Development, Industries and Foreign Commerce: Paulo Skaf (PMDB/SP)
Justice: Carlos Ayres Britto (Ind/SE)
Education: Ricardo Paes de Barros (Ind/SP)
Health: David Uip (Ind/SP)
Labor and Pensions: Paulo "Paulinho" Pereira (SD/SP)
National Integration: Geddel Vieira Lima (PMDB/BA)
Agriculture: Ronaldo Caiado (DEM/GO)

Those are the ones I'm willing to predict right now. It's probable that PSB, PP, PTB and PR will get at least one Ministry or at least a relevant 2nd tier job. I could see PR going with Transportation (a Ministry they have ruled since God knows when) and at least one of them with Communications. Perhaps Temer will split Labor and Pensions once again (those were separate Ministries until last year).

[Paleobrazilian]

According to sources the Senate will decide on May 11th if it'll open the impeachment process against Dilma.

[Paleobrazilian]

The impeachment request will be read on the Senate today. Then, party leaders will start appointing names to the special commission that will be formed there. However, since there's a national holiday on Thursday, the works of the commission should only start next Tuesday.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to Epoca, Brazil's Attorney General will present criminal charges against Lula in a few days. A criminal investigation against Dilma on accounts of obstruction of justice are also extremely likely.

[Paleobrazilian]

1 - The impeachment commission will start its works on Monday, not on Tuesday. There's general consensus that the country cannot wait much longer for a solution to the political crisis.

2 - Dilma will travel to NYC tomorrow to sign the Paris Treaty. Thus, for the rest of the week, Temer will be the acting president :lol: Dilma avoided official travels for the last month for this reason. This time, she decided to go so that she can tell all the international media how she's the victim of a "coup".

[Paleobrazilian]

Two PMDB Ministers just resigned from office as the party coalesces around Temer. Meanwhile, Temer is still in São Paulo, with hundreds of meetings, trying to prepare what may soon be his Cabinet. Yesterday he met São Paulo's State Secretary of Public Security, Alexandre de Morais (PSDB/SP). It's speculated that Temer offered him the position of Solicitor General.

[Paleobrazilian]

The Senate impeachment commission will start its works today. Raimundo Lira (PMDB/CE) will be elected its President and Antonio Anastasia (PSDB/MG) will be the rapporteur. The commission will be composed by 21 Senators, and at least 14 of them will be voting to impeach Dilma, ensuring that a pro-impeachment report to be voted by the floor of the Senate early next month.

[Paleobrazilian]

The works of the impeachment commission have finally started. Sen. Anastasia will definitely produce a pro-impeachment report, which will easily pass the commission (a 15-6 or 16-5 vote is the most likely outcome). This vote will take place on May 6th. Then the report will be submitted to the floor of the Senate, where a simple majority will be required to formally trigger an impeachment process against Dilma, automatically suspending her from office for up to 180 days. This vote is expected to happen on May 12th, and it's believed that Temer would probably take oath on May 13th (but some want him to take oath on May 12th, even if an earlier vote on the floor becomes necessary, because they don't like the idea of Temer taking oath on a Friday the 13th*).

*curious trivia: there's a long living hoax here in Brazil that Michel Temer is a Satanist, something that would only be reinforced if he takes oath on a Friday the 13th. While this is _{(most likely)} a false rumor solely based on the fact that Temer is a Freemason, this hoax is still seen on many places on the internet, and I'm sure Temer wouldn't want to reinforce it.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to rumors, Dilma will resign on Friday, after a speech to the nation where she'll ask Temer to resign as well as a way to call a general election. By resigning before the Senate opens impeachment proceedings against her, not only she would avoid the shame of being impeached, but she also would avoid the risk of losing her political rights for 8 years - the political sanction for impeached politicians in Brazil. On the downside, she, Lula and her entire Cabinet will be immediately subjected to the jurisdiction of Sergio Moro if she does this.

[Paleobrazilian]

The Attorney General has just presented criminal charges against Lula.

PS: he also opened a criminal investigation against Dilma.

[Paleobrazilian]

Eduardo Cunha has been suspended from the House by the Supreme Court until the criminal proceedings against him are concluded. Thus, the House will now have to elect its new President.

[Paleobrazilian]

Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.

[Paleobrazilian]

So will Rodrigo Maia be president now?

If (when, IMO) Temer resigns, Congress will have to hold an unicameral session to elect a stopgap President in 30 days. Until then, Rodrigo Maia would be the acting President.

[Paleobrazilian]

Ibovespa has gone into circuit breaker mode for the 1st time since the 2008 crisis. Ouch, the recession is back. This is the perfect storm.

[Paleobrazilian]

Breaking news: Michel Temer has been caught on tape asking JBS' CEO Joesley Batista to pay bribes to Eduardo Cunha to avoid a whistleblower agreement from Cunha.

This is the end of Michel Temer. I expect him to resign pretty soon after this.

Jeez, Brazil is going through presidents like flies. I guess for lack of a better option, Lula would probably be best, right?

Lula will be lucky if he isn't in jail by the end of the month.

[Paleobrazilian]

So will Rodrigo Maia be president now?

If (when, IMO) Temer resigns, Congress will have to hold an unicameral session to elect a stopgap President in 30 days. Until then, Rodrigo Maia would be the acting President.

Who is likely to be elected as stopgap President?

That is one terrifying question because we don't even know how this indirect election would happen. According to the Constitution, a federal law should regulate this election and who can run for the presidency under such a scenario. However, this law has never been passed by the Congress (even though our Constitution turns 30 next year and there was plenty of time to do this earlier...), so it's highly likely that the Congress will have to come up with ad hoc rules (probably based on the rules applicable to normal elections) and that the whole process will be under intense scrutiny from the Supreme Court.

If I'm correct on my prediction about the rules which would be applied under such a scenario, then no independent would be able to run, as party affiliation is a requisite of eligibility in Brazil. Also, sitting Governors, Mayors, Ministers, Executive and Judicial office holders would be barred from running. That would eliminate some candidates like Gov. Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB/SP), Mayor João Doria (PSDB/SP) and Supreme Court President Carmen Lucia (Ind/MG).

Among the names who have been floated since yesterday there's Former Supreme Court Judge and Justice and Defence Minister Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS), who worked with both FHC and Lula and could be seen as an "elder statesman" to guide the Country until 2018. Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles (PSD/SP) has been mentioned by many people and would be the preferred solution of the markets, however I have doubts about his eligibility because he's currently a Minister. Believe it or not, even FHC was brought up, but his staff claims he's not interested (and I really don't think he'd be willing to take the job when he's about to turn 86...). I wouldn't rule out Rodrigo Maia being elected by his own peers to fill out the term, though.

[Paleobrazilian]

Temer has just denied he's resigning. However, the tapes will probably be made public very soon (perhaps today) and there's no way he'll survive to that.

[Paleobrazilian]

So the tapes were released, and though they were damaging, they just didn't damage Temer enough to force him to resign immediately. Anyway, he's still hanging by a thread and many parties could abandon him this weekend. That would make his situation untenable.

The key factor here is what PSDB will do, as Temer has no shot of surviving without them. My gut feeling is that they'll throw both Temer and Aecio under the bus ASAP, otherwise the party will be obliterated next year (just like PT last year).

[Paleobrazilian]

It's been 6 days since the scandal started and Temer is still trying to survive, claiming the tape recorded against him was tampered. This hardly matters, though, because he still confessed he had a secret meeting with a notoriously corrupt businessman who told him about bribing judges and prosecutors.

Many impeachment requests have already been filed to the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies. However, they have been put on hold by Rodrigo Maia, who's been quietly waiting to see what Temer will do. He knows that if Temer falls, he'll be the next in line, at least for 30 days (and many believe, like me, that he'd be a strong candidate, possibly a consensus candidate, in the indirect election).

There are 2 factors right now which have to be taken into account.

The 1st one is that Temer knows he has no base anymore and just doesn't resign because he knows he could go to jail quickly if he does so, thus it's been reported that Temer would be willing to resign once his succession is arranged and with the promise that his successor would pardon him (his successor probably won't probably run for reelection in 2018, so he/she should be unafraid of impersonating Gerald Ford).

The 2nd one is that the Dilma-Temer presidential ticket will be judged by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on June 6th, and it's likely that TSE will declare the 2014 election null due to the fact that Dilma-Temer got tons of money for their campaign from bribes, collected through (apparently) legal and totally illegal donations. If TSE does this, it'll hardly matter if Temer resigns or not, he'll be out of office soon. He could still appeal to the Supreme Court to try to gain time, but such an appeal will be doomed to failure. All that being said, get ready, because it's likely that Brazil will have it's first indirect presidential election since 1985.

[Paleobrazilian]

Rioters set fire to the Agriculture Ministry building: