To 2012 and beyond

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Lame Duck Session

Democrats focus on two pieces of legistlation dring the Lame Duck Session. The first is the START Treaty. Senate Republicans split on the issue. Lugar and other Moderate Republicans come out and vote for the Treaty while Mitch McConnell leads conservatives to vote against the treaty. Americans support of the treaty is high, with 71% in favor. It is ratified narrowly by a 70-30 vote. 18 Republicans support the treaty. The next issue is the Bush Tax Cuts. The large Democratic majority in the House votes to repeal the tax cuts for ones who are making over 250,000 dollars a year. The Senate, however, disagrees and vote against the House proposal. Eventually, Pres. Obama concedes and introduces a law that will extend the Tax Cuts for all until 2015.

2012

So far, only minor candidates have declared their candidacy for President but Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are widley expected to run. Obama loses to a generic Republican 49-41 in a new poll a new electoral map also takes shape with state by state polls released.

Pres. Obama's approval hits a new low at 43% while unemployment is at 9.5%

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January 3, 2011-Congress convenes and John Boehner becomes Speaker of the House

January 5, 2011-House Republicans propose a repeal of Healthcare Reform. Pres. Obama says"Republicans are now trying to take advantage of their gains in Congress to attempt to pass a repeal of a long-awaited and important reform.

January 19, 2011-The Repeal of Healthcare comes to the House floor. 37% of Americans think that the bill should not be repealed but certain things should be taken out while 29% thimk it should be repealed totally and 24% think it should not be repealed at all.

January 27, 2011- Govenor Haley Barbour becomes the first major Republican to declare his candidacy for President. He trails Obama 40-31 in a poll mostly because of name recognition.
Yes, the picture below is Haley Barbour


Febuary 8, 2011-The Healthcare Repeal vote passes 240-195 with a group of Republican Moderates voting against but a group of conservative Democrats voting for it. It now will go to the Senate

Febuary 14, 2011-Fresh off their Healthcare Victory-Republicans propose a massive Small Buisness Tax Cut. It is heavily critisized because it will add to the defecit. Most Americans do not support.


2012
Pres. Obama's approval goes up slightly to 46% with encouraging reports on the economy. Uneployment falls in January 2011 to 9.2% from 9.5% in December. New state by stae polls are released.

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Febuary 25, 2011-Govenor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota announces that he will run for President

March 1, 2011-Uneployment falls to 9.0% in Febuary and Obama's approval hits 48%.

March 13, 2011- The Small Buisness Tax Cut passes 223-212 in the House but its prospects in the Senate look dim. 55% of Americans support the Tax Cut while 42% do not.

March 16, 2011-A Republican Primary Poll comes out(declared candidates highlited in bold)
Romney 20%
Palin 19%
Huckabee 18%
Gingrich 12%
Pawlenty 9%
Paul 7%
Barbour 5%
Other 5%

March 23, 2011-Joseph Liebramen announces he will retire in 2012


April 2, 2011-Ruth Gader Ginsburg, US Supreme Court Justice dies at the age of 78 because of pancreatic cancer.

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April 10, 2011- Newt Gingrich and John Bolton announce they will be running for President


April 15, 2011- Pres. Obama nominates Diane Wood to the vancant Supreme Court seat. The Nomination is expected to get through and hearings start in Early May

April 18, 2011-Bob Grahm of Florida announces he will not seek a second term

April 23, 2011- The Small Buisness Tax Cut passes 57-43 in the Senate with 4 Democrats voting for it. President Obama says he will not veto it.

April 28, 2011- Mike Huckabee announces he will seek the Presidency in 2012. A New Republican Primary Poll comes out (Declared candidates in bold)

Romney 23%
Huckabee 20%
Palin 18%
Gingrich 14%
Pawlenty 10%
Other 9%

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2012

Obama's Approval is at 46% and Uneployment increses slightly to 9.1%. General Election matchups are also announced

Obama vs Generic Republican 44-41 Generic Republican Wins
Obama vs Romney                   46-42 Romney Wins
Obama vs Huckabee                 43-43     Tie
Obama vs Palin                         45-39     Obama Wins
Obama vs Gingrich                    42-40       Obama Wins

A full map of Senate retirements and Senators seeking reelection is revealed. Blue means running for reelection and Green means not while grey means no election.

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Lugar retired because of possible challenges from The Tea Party and old age

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May 2, 2011- Mitch Daniels announces he will run for President

May 8, 2011- Hearings of the confrimation of Diane Wood begin. She is hammered on issues by Republicans but makes it out of commitee narrowly.

May 15, 2011- Ron Paul announces he will run for President again

May 19, 2011- Sarah Palin announces the following statement in a press conference-"I will not seek the presidency in 2012-I know this is hard for many of you but I will always leave a door open to another bid" She later endorses Newt Gingrich

May 23, 2011-President Obama's approval is at 43% and unemployment is currently at 9.3% with another small rise. New state by state polls come out.

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June 1, 2011- In a joint session of Congress, President Obama proposes a new agency to give people jobs that will improve the nation's infanstucture-"This is a two for one deal- not only will unemployment go down but our infanstructure will be world-class". Republican Senator Marco Rubio gives the response-"The President's socialist agenda cannot continue-We will fight this in every way possible". The agency, called the NIEA-National Infanstructure Employment Agency will offer jobs that will rebuild the nation's roads and bridges. If the agency is created, it could lower unemployment to 8% by next year.

June 9, 2011-The first Republican Debate at the Regan Library-Mike Huckabee comes off as the strongest candidate with his new foreign policy expertise. A poll is released on how the candidates did and the leaders for the nomination.

Who do you think won the debate?
Huckabee 51%
Paul 23%
Gingrich 14%
Pwlenty 6%
Daniels 3%
Barbour 2%
Bolton 1%

Republican Primary Poll
Huckabee 22%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 14%
Pawlenty 12%
Barbour 9%
Daniels 5%
Other 4%
Undecided 14%

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June 19, 2011-After a long debate, Diane Wood is confirmed to the Supreme Court by a vote of 56-44 with 3 Republicans(Grahm, Collins, and Snowe) voting for it

June 22, 2011-Mitt Romney announces he will seek the presidency in 2012.

"My fellow Americans, with uneployment above 9% and President Obama's failed policies, America needs a new direction-one that will lead us to prosperity in the future-together we can do this"
 
New Early State polling is also released

Iowa
Huckabee 31%
Romney 25%
Pawlenty 17%
Gingrich 17%
Barbour 5%
Daniels 4%
Bolton 1%

New Hampshire
Romney 37%
Pawlenty 29%
Gingrich 19%
Huckabee 10%
Bolton 3%
Barbour 2%
Daniels 2%

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June 13, 2011- A new CBS poll shows Pres. Obama's new agency getting high approval even though it will add to the defecit.

Do you approve of the NIEA?
Yes 50%
No 43%
Undecided 7%

Pres. Obama's approval, though continues to hold in the mid-forties.

Obama Approval
Approve 46%
Dissaprove 49%
Undecided 5%

June 19, 2011- In a suprise announcement on The Late Show Donald Trump announces he will seek the presidency as a Republican in 2012                                                              

June 30, 2011- In the second Republican debate, Donald Trump pitches his economic plan to the American people. His candidacy creates grate fanfare in the press. A new Republican Primary poll and general election poll is released.


Romney 27%
Huckabee 26%
Gingrich 12%
Pawlenty 10 %
Trump 10%
Daniels 8%
Barbour 4%
Bolton 2%
Paul 2%
Undecided 9%

Election Matchups

Romney 45%  Obama 42%

Obama 44% Huckabee 42%

Obama 43% Trump 38%

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Questions? Comments?

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July 4, 2011-On America's birthday the Romney campaign releases a new ad in New Hampshire denouncing Trump and Huckabee

July 17, 2011-The President meets with Republican leaders about the NIEA which is currently on the Senate Floor. The President accepts some amendments that will limt federal beuacracy on the Agency

July 23, 2011- The NIEA passes 66-34 in the Senate with 13 Republicans including John McCain voting for it. It will now go to the House.

August 3, 2011- Unemployment goes to 8.7% from 9.1% in June. Pres. Obama's approval also jumps, going to 48%

August 5, 2011- Fmr. President's George W. Bush and George HW Bush give a suprise endorsement to Gov. Tim Pawlenty

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BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS
On August 25, 2011 a Category 4 Hurricane Franklin slams into the Carolinas inflicting billions of dollars in damage. President Obama immediatly visits the two states working with local leaders to relocate and rebuild. Eventually, Congress passes a relief package to rebuild the area. Pres. Obama is praised for his handling of the situation. His approval rating goes to 49%

September 14, 2011- The NIEA is passed in the House by a vote of 220-215.

October 3, 2011- In the 3rd Debate Republicansdebate about economics. Gov. Pawlenty say "President Obama makes it sound like 8% unemployment is just fine- well that is not what we need in a President" State by State Republican polls are released.Red=Huckabee, Blue=Romney, Grey= Trump, Green= Pawlenty.

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October 12, 2011- The New York Times does an article that accuses Gingrich is cheating on his wife again. Gingrich strongly denies the claim but his poll numbers collapse.

Republican Nomination-October 16, 2011
Romney 30%
Huckabee 27%
Pawlenty 13%
Trump 13%
Gingrich 7%
Daniels 5%
Paul 2%
Barbour 1%
Bolton 1%
Other 1%


Meanwhile, speculation that Sarah Palin increases with Gingrich's Tea Party campaign failing.

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October 23, 2011- Barack Obama officially launches his campaign in Chicago, Il with a crowd of almost 50,000 on hand.

"We have had almost three years of solid progress. Now the question is- will we side with the people that got us into this mess or the people that are getting us out of this mess. If you want more failure and more war, go ahead, vote Republican but if you want America to be at peace and prosperous than vote for the party in power"

November 3, 2011- In a suprise resignation, Tim Geithner resigns from the Secretary of Treasury because of "personal matters". Obama is considering many candidates, including a Republican to replace him.

Election Day 2011 is next

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CNN ELECTION NIGHT
"Good Evening and welcome to CNN Election Night 2011. Two govenor's races and many other races are up for grabs tonight. It's 7:00 on the East Coast and polls are closing in Kentucky. And with 1% in- this race is to early to call. Govenor Steve Beshar is trying to fend off a challenge from State Senator David Williams and recent polling indicates that this race may be very close."

8:00 PM-"Polls are now closing in Missisppi and as of now- we can make projection! CNN can project based of exit polls that Amy Tuck, former Lt. Govenor will defeat Jim Hood, the attorney general of Mississippi by a fairly large margin to suceed Haley Barbour, A presidential candidate to the Govenor's Mansion. This win was widely expected because of Missisippi serious red-state trend in the past half-century

10:34 PM-Hold that thought for a moment, Candy- we have a projection to make. CNN can now project that Govenor Steve Beshar will be defeated in his reelection bid by State Senator David Williams. With 56% of the results win, Williams is leading by a big margin.

FINAL RESULTS
MISSISIPPI
AMY TUCK 57%
JIM HOOD 40%
OTHER 3%

KENTUCKY
DAVID WILLIAMS 51%
STEVE BESHAR 46%
OTHER  3%

By thw way- In April, Emanuel becomes Mayor of Chicago and Jindal wins reelction in LA

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Questions? Comments?

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November 14, 2011- In the Republican debate, the candidates hammer Gingrich for his cheating scandal. Earlier that day, Palin revokes her endorsement of Newt. She says-"I can simply not endorse a man who is immoral and goes against what I believe in. We need a person that can really lead" After the press conference speculation increases that Sarah Palin may enter the race. Meanwhile, Mike Bloomberg and Lou Dobbs have both announced they will not run for president in 2012.

November 16, 2011- President Obama nominates Warren Buuffet, billionare investor, for the Secretary of Treasury. His nomination easily clears the Senate and over 70% of Americans support the nomination.

December 1, 2011- Newt Gingrich officially withdrawls from the Republican race.

December 3, 2011- Sarah Palin announces she will launch a write-in bid fro the nomination. Unemployment is 8.8%


December 3, 2011- At a rally in Tampa Bay, FL Sarah Palin announces that she will stage a write in campaign for the nomination in 2012. She urges Tea Partiers to vote for her saying people need a new leader

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Update Later Today

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December 9, 2011- A new GOP poll comes out with suprising results-Write In Palin is in second
Republican Nomination
Romney 24%
Palin 23%
Huckabee 19%
Trump 13%
Pawlenty 11%
Daniels 6%
Barbour 2%
Paul 1%
Bolton 1%

This is not good news for the Huckabee campaign because they have dropped to third place and have lost the title of main challenger to Romney. Early State polling is also out.

IOWA                           N.H                                                                                                                                          Romney 24%                          Romney 23%
Huckabee 24%                       Trump 22%
Palin 20%                               Pawlenty 18%
Pawlenty 17%                        Palin 15%
Daniels 7%                             Huckabee 14%
Trump 5%                               Daniels 3%
Barbour 1%                            Paul 3%
Bolton 1%                               Bolton 1%
Paul 1%                                  Barbour 1%      

                

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Palin takes away the insurgency that Paul had plus he is not running a very active campaign.

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December 19, 2011- The Republican candidates, led by Trump exclude Sarah Palin from their debate in New York City hosted by CBS. In response, Palin organizes a massive rally in Madison Square Garden to protest. Glenn Beck and other Tea Party ralliers also make speeches in support of Palin. It turns out to beat the debate in ratings.

January 1, 2012- As 2011 turns into 2012 it seems that Iowa has turned into a Romney vs. Huckabee vs. Palin race with all four buying heavy ad time there and polling about even

January 12, 2012- In the final Iowa Republican debate, Donald Trump a noncontender warns-"If we elect Sarah Palin for our nomination, there is now way, no how we can win."

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HUCKABEE WINS IOWA-PALIN TAKES THIRD PLACE
January 16, 2012- For the second straight election cycle, Mike Huckabee is the projected winner of the Iowa Caucuses.

RESULTS
Mike Huckabee 31.3%
Mitt Romney 26.8%
Sarah Palin 21.5%
Tim Pawlenty 8.8%
Mitch Daniels  4.6%
Donald Trump 4.0%
Ron Paul  2.1%
Haley Barbour 0.5%
John Bolton 0.3%
Other 0.1%
Huckabee greeting fans after his win

Barbour and Bolton drop out do to lower than projected numbers. Most politicos agree its a three way race.

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January 19, 2012- The New Hampshire Primary is turning out to be a fight between Trump and Romney. The latest polls shows the two almost even with Pawlenty and Palin battling for third place.

GOP NOMINATION-NEW HAMPSHIRE
Romney 30%
Trump 29%
Pawlenty 15%
Palin 12%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 3%
Daniels 2%

Trump is putting all he has into New Hampshire and hopes to ride the momentum of a win and get the nomination.

Janaury 21, 2012- In the FOX News New Hampshire Debate(which includes Palin) voters begin to see the divide between the frontrunners. Palin is mostly representing blue collar, working class people that are angry at the government and are very conservative while Mike Huckabee does well among the Christan Right and Romney is mostly based off of white collars and social moderates. However, Palin delivers the line of the night. When asked about overturning Roe vs. Wade Palin says "I think the...uhh...Kagan Court will probably not overturn this"She had obviously forgotten the name of Chief Justice John Roberts and put in Justice Kagan's. Romney slams her for the remark. He says-"how can we trust a woman who does not know the name of the chief justice to run our country!"

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ROMNEY WINS EXTREMELY NARROW VICTORY IN NH
In a very close primary, Mitt Romney has defeated Donald Trump.

Results
Mitt Romney 30.6%
Donald Trump 30.5%
Tim Pawlenty 16.7%
Sarah Palin 11.3%
Mike Huckabee 7.9%
Ron Paul 2.2%
Mitch Daniels 0.8%

After bad results, Daniels and Paul exit the race and it becomes a five-person race.