Australia - 7 September 2013

[Foucaulf]

Teddy is wrong ...

Predictions are judged as predictions, not statements of fact. In general, possible outcomes are modeled on a bell curve. Mathematically, if 97-50-3 has some probability of occurring you simply cannot label his prediction "wrong

Hate to interrupt the conversation, but lay off Polnut and recall that sampling bias is a thing. The rest of that post is skeptic claptrap I had thought Fivethirtyeight had quashed well...