In 2010, Tories had a 7-point lead over Labour and won 48 more seats. Now with a 2.5 point lead they'll have 56 or 58 more. So it looks like the structural advantage due to FPP has shifted hard to the Tories.
To make it more clear you should take out the Scotland effects. Look at just the English constituency results: in 2010 Tories were up by 11 to Labour and they had a majority of 106. This time Tories are only up by 3.7 in England (!) and likely have a majority of 70.
How much of this is just inefficient realignment of the vote from Lib Dem to Labour however (given the Lib Dems have lost 35 seats?)
