The UK General Election Prediction Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: The UK General Election Prediction Thread  (Read 18620 times)
Jahiegel
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Posts: 7


Political Matrix
E: 8.65, S: -8.70

« on: May 06, 2015, 10:34:26 PM »

Vote shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5%
Labour - 33.2%
Liberal Democrats - 9.5%
UKIP - 12.4%
Greens - 4.6%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.4%

Seats

Conservatives - 279
Labour - 264
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP - 54
Plaid - 3
Galloway - 1
Other - 19 (DUP - 9, Sinn Féin - 5, SDLP - 3, Independent [Hermon] - 1, Speaker - 1)

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 26.6%, 3 seats (Glasgow North East, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, and either Dunfermline and West Fife or Edinburgh South)
SNP - 48.6%, 54 seats
Liberal Democrats - 5.4%, 1 seat (Orkney and Shetland, obvs)
Conservative - 15.2%, 1 seat (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk)
Greens - 1.5%, 0 seats
UKIP - 2.2%, 0 seats
Others - 0.6%. 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP (gain)
Glasgow North - SNP (gain)
Stirling - SNP (gain)

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative (gain)
Stockton South - Labour (gain)
Redcar- Labour (gain)

Bury North - Labour (gain)
Stockport - Labour (hold) 
Heywood and Middleton - Labour (hold)

Rotherham - Labour (hold)
Colne Valley - Conservative (hold)
Bradford West - Respect (hold)
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats (hold)

Boston and Skegness - Conservative (hold)
Broxtowe - Labour (gain)
Loughborough - Conservative (hold)

Worcester - Conservative (hold)
Dudley South - Conservative (hold)
Warwickshire North - Labour (gain)

Ynys Mon - Labour (hold)
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats (hold)
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative (hold)

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative (hold)
Bristol West - Labour (gain)
Wells - Conservative (gain)

Brighton Pavillion - Green (hold)
Thanet South - Conservative (hold)
Rochester and Strood - Conservative (gain)

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats (hold)
Battersea - Conservative (hold)
Enfield North - Labour (gain)

Norwich South - Labour (gain)
Clacton - UKIP (hold)
Thurrock - UKIP (gain)
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