US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[krazen1211]

I always thought the real problem with creating a 4th Philly suburb district is that it's sort of a waste. There's really not much incredibly strong Dem territory. Between upper Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks county you're really looking at a whole load of 52-56% Obama precincts globally across the board. You can't really pull out 700k voters and really shore anyone else up that much.

Even in 2006, Mike Fitzpatrick won Bucks county. The problem is that he lost some really poorly chosen sections of Philadelphia by landslide margins.

Natural expansion of the 1st, 2nd, 13th is going to swallow up all the 65%+ Obama precints in areas like Upper Darby, Lower Merion, Bensalem, etc. Fitzpatrick, Meehan, Gerlach are all stuck in Obama voting districts, but more like Obama 50-52% rather than Obama 55-56%.

I'd much rather run Tim Holden up to Scranton/Wilkes Barre. If you get really ugly, you can run him into Reading as well. Looks like the Devil's pitchfork. If you need to, you can pull him slightly out of Harrisburg and absorb that city into the districts in the T.

[krazen1211]

Joe Pitts's residence is really, really irritating. It makes the map so much cleaner if he just moves.



I did the best I could for PA-8 and PA-15.

PA-8: Obama 50%
PA-15: Obama 51%
PA-10: Obama 47%
PA-11: Obama 46%
PA-6: Obama 49%
PA-16: Obama 45%
PA-12: Obama 46%

PA-7: Obama 55%. Sorry Meehan.
PA-17: Obama 63%
PA-14: Obama 70%
PA-13: Obama 66%
PA-1: Obama 85%
PA-2: Obama 88%

PA-9: Obama 42%
PA-5: Obama 45%
PA-3: Obama 46%
PA-4: Obama 43%
PA-18: Obama 46%


I really think the wise thing to do is to choose 2 between Gerlach, Meehan, Fitzpatrick. So I did.

[krazen1211]

Per reading the article, it doesn't make the slightest sense to me, and the numbers don't work. They must be on crack. And how do you make Critz safe, even if you wanted to? They must be on crack, or the reporter is being fed a line of disinformation. And combine Fattah and Swartz, while protecting all the Philly area Pubbies?  Ya right. As I said, they are on crack. The idea of endangering (well it can't be done but whatever) PA's only black congressperson is itself very curious - and probably illegal.

I think someone is spreading fud for their own amusement.

[krazen1211]

I would not be surprised if the map were somewhat like this except with Altmire's immediate neighborhood somehow included in Critz' CD. Not saying it's the most likely option, but it would appeal to a certain type of R mapdrawer.

Doyle is about 120k below in population, and Critz is another 90k below. Critz should be done for good.

[krazen1211]

Here comes the real PA plan, not the FUD.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-dc-republicans-working-toward-consensus/22604/

The most striking feature of Republicans’ tentative plans is the change to Tim Holden’s 17th Congressional district. Currently, the 17th covers all of Holden’s home county of Schuylkill County, as well as Dauphin and Lebanon. The district comprises parts of Perry and Berks counties as well.

Republicans are talking about stretching his district up to the Democratic stronghold of Scranton, so as to make freshman Rep. Lou Barletta’s district far more favorable to the GOP. This idea has really caught on in the past two weeks, and appears more likely every day.

The seat targeted for dissolution would be that of Rep. Mark Crtiz. The GOP is looking at ways to attach Critz’s Democratic base in Johnstown to the district of Rep. Jason Altmire, whose district would itself lose Democrats to the Pittsburgh-based district of Rep. Mike Doyle.

That would set up a Democratic primary between Altmire and Critz.

Republicans emphasize that they’ll be conservative this time. They’ll be drawing out a Democratic seat for sure, but they won’t attempt to make every Democratic seat more competitive as they did in 2001. They are trying to protect their gains of 2010.

The main question, how competitive will the GOP the merged Altmire/Critz district, will likely fall to Rep. Bill Shuster. If he is willing to take traditionally Democratic counties of Fayette and Green, the the new seat will be much more achievable for Republicans. If however Shuster wants to maintain his lopsided party registration advantage, Republicans may cede the Altmire/Critz district to Democrats.

[krazen1211]

Are they going with Torie's map in West PA, and a lite version of it in Northeast PA, but not try anything funny around Philly? That would strike me as the most sensible thing they could do, really.

I personally think Torie's map is great in Western PA, myself, and a bit too ugly in the Philly suburbs.

Meehan will get a Delaware + Montco + some of Chester
Dent will get the Lehigh Valley
Fitz will get Bucks (hopefully they cut out Bensalem + Bristol here) + Montco
Gerlach will get Chester + Berks
Pitts will get Lancaster


I don't think we'll see the cross county ugliness there.

[krazen1211]

I think that map is just Cook Political's prediction, not the real thing.  

But yeah, there are some clear inefficiencies, from the GOP point of view.  As mentioned before, I'd give Reading to Holden rather than Harrisburg, plus more of Monroe County.  And why not liberate some of the heavily McCain precincts in Schuylkill County, while you're at it?  

In the west, Doyle could be packed more, and CD5/12 are unnecessarily strong GOP.  

You can give both Reading and Harrisburgh to Holden, as well as all of Lackawanna and Wilkes Barre.

Lebanon and that much of Carbon don't need to be in Holden's district.


I would call the sprawling CD-14 though that cuts across counties passive, rather than aggressive. The compact circle on Pittsburgh is simply a waste of a lot of Pubbies.

[krazen1211]

I think that map is just Cook Political's prediction, not the real thing.  

But yeah, there are some clear inefficiencies, from the GOP point of view.  As mentioned before, I'd give Reading to Holden rather than Harrisburg, plus more of Monroe County.  And why not liberate some of the heavily McCain precincts in Schuylkill County, while you're at it?  

In the west, Doyle could be packed more, and CD5/12 are unnecessarily strong GOP.  

You can give both Reading and Harrisburgh to Holden, as well as all of Lackawanna and Wilkes Barre.

Lebanon and that much of Carbon don't need to be in Holden's district.


I would call the sprawling CD-14 though that cuts across counties passive, rather than aggressive. The compact circle on Pittsburgh is simply a waste of a lot of Pubbies.

It's just based on the historic situation. Abolishing two D seats in West PA seemed a bridge too far in 2000 (and almost certainly would have been), and that part has trended R more than the areas in what's now Altmire's district.

Isn't that exactly what happened?

http://www.mapcenter.org/region/gerrymaps.html

The 18th was merged into the 14th, and the 12th was merged into the 20th. Altmire's district was Republican at the time.

[krazen1211]

Alright, abolishing three seemed a bridge too far. I know there were voices that one more might be doable.

I also totally misunderstood your original post, it seems.

Possibly. It's just really hard to create 2 Dem districts in SW-PA without splitting Pittsburgh.

You could do 1 district that covers Lawrence, Beaver, and some of Allegheny, and a 2nd district that covers the Dem areas of Fayette and Green and connects them with Johnstown. That would probably allow Murphy to grab more of his Westmoreland County areas that he has currently.

Shuster is fine no matter what you throw at him, but I am not quite confident in that CD-18 that I drew. The problem is that the Dem areas in Atlmire's current district and Critz's current district are really far dispersed.

Aggressiveness as I think they mean it is trying to create new pubbie districts, ie the old CD-13, while weakening your own. I guess that's a bit of what that CD-4 is I drew, but that's only because Westmoreland County happens to be where it is. Removing the south leg of CD-14 causes more problems than it solves, imo.

[krazen1211]

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-brady-accused-of-complicity-with-gop/27137/


Brady is going to deliver votes in exchange for drawing his own district. Naturally its to ensure that the Philadelphia blacks are mostly in Fattah's district.

[krazen1211]

Haha, I wish this wasn't posted. I purposely avoided posting it because the legislative district in question is mine and I work for one of the people mentioned.

Everyone is obsessed with redistricting now so there are tons of rumors out there. Just to clear things up: Brady isn't going to deliver votes for the candidate in question if you're referring to the Council election. The candidate in question is going to win. Believe me.  Brady already knows that. There isn't a deal on that end. The real story here is this idea that Brady will see to it that a joke Democratic candidate will go up in the Special so the GOP keeps the seat and, in turn, the Republican members of the legislature draw him a favorable district.

Brady is getting a lot of push back on this on his side so I don't know how likely it is to happen. If such a deal with the state legislative leaders goes through, Brady becomes my Congressman.

The natural expansion of Brady's district is into the Dem parts of Delaware County and Philadelphia east of Broad Street. Do you think he'll want anything different, like being run into Lower Merion/Montco?

[krazen1211]

Joe Pitts is really stinking up PA Redistricting. He has to give up the Chester County portion of his district but is crying about it.

[krazen1211]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

[krazen1211]

New reports that the GOP is gunning for Schwartz again by putting her in a heavily black district and putting Brady in a (mostly) white district.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-schwartz-v-fattah/29153/

Makes sense as Schwartz is a dynamite fundraiser and has some statewide appeal.

[krazen1211]

New reports that the GOP is gunning for Schwartz again by putting her in a heavily black district and putting Brady in a (mostly) white district.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-schwartz-v-fattah/29153/

Makes sense as Schwartz is a dynamite fundraiser and has some statewide appeal.

Yes, but as the article says, the other CD will be Dem, and Schwartz will probably just move there. There need to be 3, not 2, Dem sink CD's in the Philly area, if all the Pubbie incumbents are to be made reasonably safe, and even then it is a close call. So they are just toying with her by excising  heavily Jewish Abbington from her CD and dumping it into the black Fatah CD is all. Kind of spiteful really.

The thought process is likely that putting Schwartz in a 40% black district running from Lower Merion to Darby/Chester will lead to her being exposed to a primary.

[krazen1211]

Seems they will indeed not get too greedy in the southwest, either.

The goal it seems to ensure very liberal primary electorates so nutters like Murphy and Trivedi get nominated.

[krazen1211]

It doesn't really matter. Murphy doesn't look like he's going to retire anytime soon.

Weren't we supposed to get a map yesterday?

Delayed till Wednesday.

[krazen1211]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Conceding 2 districts probably creates some problems for Murphy. If he's the only Republican down there, he pretty much swoops up a lot of suburban Republicans who are more conservative than he is.

[krazen1211]

Let's hope you mean the former Miss PA-19 when you refer to PA-12.

The prime fight is still over how Altmire is to be treated (and thus how self-selected Kelly, Thompson, Murphy, and Shuster's constituents will be), I think. If the Representatives got their way, the 4th would be conceded. That is unlikely, but some kind of bizarro compromise that ends up accomplishing the same with more vote wastage is not.

Conceding 2 districts probably creates some problems for Murphy. If he's the only Republican down there, he pretty much swoops up a lot of suburban Republicans who are more conservative than he is.

Nah, I was thinking along the lines (for their wet dream, that is) he'd pick and choose what he wants, Kelly picks and chooses what he wants (except that Thompson vetoes Kelly shedding all of Erie, obviously), even Shuster picks only what he's ready to take from Critz' district. The rest of the two districts is combined, except Doyle obviously picks up Democrats.
Altmire and Critz would be paired in what would probably be a slightly weaker McCain district than what Altmire currently has. Everybody's happy. Except for Republican hopefuls looking for a district to run in, of course. And they exist, as we know.

Something like that looks about like an L; starting at Beaver/New Castle county and running along the border to Fayette and Green Counties.


Latest news is that Barletta will start at Luzerne and swoop down to Harrisburg. Holden will get Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Wilkes Barre, Reading, and Easton.

[krazen1211]

Is anyone running the show? How are they going to finalize a map and who's going to make that decision? This sure looks to be leading a compromise that helps Republicans some but has all sorts of ugliness and inefficiency in it... (I think someone said that upthread.)

Well, it seems to be using a Lewis type of strategy. After Brady, Fattah, and Schwartz get their desired districts, each of the remaining SEPA Republicans seems to be bickering over territory. The result it seems will be a leaping gazelle PA-17 (and an equally ugly PA-04) that string together whatever random territory is left.

[krazen1211]

I guess deciding what territory to set aside for a three district Democrat area in and around Philly was the easy part, and any Democratic input would have been limited to the internal division of the resulting area.

Correct. The Philadelphia Democratic party might get its desired districts. Bob Brady in particular has been helpful in the past.

I'm not sure why Fattah requested Lower Merion in his district, but rumors are he got that too.

[krazen1211]

Haha they split the Lehigh Valley.

[krazen1211]

18th: 55% McCain 51% Republican
4th: 54% McCain 50% Republican
3rd: 52% McCain 53% Republican
14th: 67% Obama 70% Democrat
9th: 59% McCain 57% Republican
5th: 52% McCain 54% Republican
12th (Platts): 54% McCain 59% Republican
10th: 56% McCain 60% Republican
11th: 53% McCain 56% Republican
17th: 57% Obama 57% Democrat
15th: 51% Obama 51% Republican
8th: 53% Obama 51% Democrat



Guesswork:

16th: 50% McCain 57% Republican
6th: 54% Obama 50% Republican
7th: 53% Obama 50% Republican

[krazen1211]

18th: 55% McCain 51% Republican
4th: 54% McCain 50% Republican
3rd: 52% McCain 53% Republican
14th: 67% Obama 70% Democrat
9th: 59% McCain 57% Republican
5th: 52% McCain 54% Republican
12th (Platts): 54% McCain 59% Republican
10th: 56% McCain 60% Republican
11th: 53% McCain 56% Republican
17th: 57% Obama 57% Democrat
15th: 51% Obama 51% Republican
8th: 53% Obama 51% Democrat



Guesswork:

16th: 50% McCain 57% Republican
6th: 54% Obama 50% Republican
7th: 53% Obama 50% Republican

Are those published numbers, or ones you worked up krazen?

Eyeballed and drew. They could be way off, particularly the last 3.

[krazen1211]

MD-03 has a perfect partner in PA-07 as a poster child for redistricting reform. It looks like they were more concerned with holding PA-07 than with PA-06, based on the 2% boost it gets in comparison in your chart. Maybe there are other electoral factors at the local level.

A couple. Joe Sestak and making sure that PA-07 has a GOP registration advantage. Allegedly all of the desired districts do now except 12 and 18.