GOP Makes Big Gains among White Voters

[krazen1211]

http://people-press.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/

As the country enters into the 2012 presidential election cycle, the electorate’s partisan affiliations have shifted significantly since Barack Obama won office nearly three years ago. In particular, the Democrats hold a much narrower edge than they did in 2008, particularly when the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account.

While the number identifying as Republicans has remained relatively flat (28% in both 2008 and 2011), more independent voters lean to the GOP than did so in 2008 (16% now, 11% then). When leaners are combined with partisans, Democrats only have a four-point advantage among registered voters – 47% of voters are Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party while 43% are Republicans or lean to the GOP. In 2008, Democrats held a 12 point advantage over Republicans (51% to 39%).



+4% overall, +6% among whites, and, and +9% among the under 30 crowd.

[krazen1211]

Dems are screwed if they can't win the "angry white male" vote.

In some parts of the country that is true.

What is important to note from this however is that the public has returned to its 2000/2004 patterns.

[krazen1211]

I can tell you first hand, there is a silent but angry white male vote out there that will not play out well for Obama next year. Females on the other hand are always in the bag for Democrats.

That's what most of McCain's 46% was. It takes a lot more than those votes to win an election.

That depends. President Reagan in 1980 and President Bush in 1988 won whites by 20%. Such is still enough.

[krazen1211]

The GOP has a 13% advantage among whites and McCain won whites by 13 (56%-43%) in 2008. In order to win a presidential election the GOP really needs at minimum around 60% of whites now and in many states 35-40% of whites is good enough for a Dem (VA, NC, NV etc)

The study indicates that 44% of whites held the Democratic party in a favorable view, and Obama got 43% of whites.

Now only 39% of whites hold the same view. He will likely require more than 39% of whites to win.

[krazen1211]

That depends. President Reagan in 1980 and President Bush in 1988 won whites by 20%. Such is still enough.

Let's be clear, the OP was talking about angry white men in particular and that is not enough to win an election outright. It doesn't "depend" on anything, that's fact.

Let's be clear, you didn't actually read the OP. If you had, you would notice that females have moved more Republican than men have.

[krazen1211]

White people react unfavorably to a black President.

Shocker.

Whites reacted equally poorly to James Carter and Michael Dukakis. McGovern of course lost whites by 36%.

[krazen1211]

White people react unfavorably to a black President.

Shocker.

Whites reacted equally poorly to James Carter and Michael Dukakis. McGovern of course lost whites by 36%.

The Anglo white share of the voting population has dropped significantly since 2000, let alone the 1970s.

Yes, sir, that is true. Which is why a 20% lead among whites only delivers a narrow victory and not a blowout. But it is not an unreasonable target as we have achieved such before.

[krazen1211]

I think the democrats need to go to every beach community, every inner city ghetto, and every college campus and basically conduct massive voter registration drives to ensure maximum turnout to offset any gains the republicans are making in other areas.

Sending liberals into the ghettos would be an OSHA violation.