The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[krazen1211]

North Carolina:


D: 51.2%
R: 30.2%
I: 18.4%



2008:

D: 56.44%
R: 27.0%
I: 16.5%



Now we know why Obama is silently pulling out of North Carolina. He has collapsed among whites. Back then 27% of the votes were cast by white Democrats and that's down to 20%.

The overall white share of the electorate has dropped, and the share that is white D has dropped more because elderly Democrats are dying out and younger people are more likely to register Independent. Plus the fact that Obama's not doing as well as 2008 and probably isn't winning NC. But you're taking that number out of context.

Yes, North Carolina whites have lost some ground in terms of registration to blacks and some to the other minorities.

The problem for you is that those others are not voting, nor are the youngs. Median age of voter is higher in 2012 than 2008.

[krazen1211]

Here's an update for Colorado early voting...


D - 120965
R - 126539
I - 75030

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/24/file_attachments/169989/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B24%2B2012.pdf

So far the GOP is ahead in all swing counties.

Not too shabby. In 2008 the Democrats were able to get a 2 point lead in CO early voting due to lack of GOP enthusiasm, despite a sliver of a GOP lead in voter registration at the time.


Among the swing counties the Democrats have slightly more voters in Arapahoe County while the GOP has more voters in the other 2 counties.

[krazen1211]

The problem for you is that those others are not voting, nor are the youngs. Median age of voter is higher in 2012 than 2008.

Well, I won't argue 2012 is going to be 2008. The question is whether things have swung far enough for Romney to match Reagan '84 levels among white voters, which is what he needs to simply break even in a more diverse country. The signs are that it's not happening outside of the south. Obama will likely lose NC (but put up a good fight) and I wouldn't bet on either FL or VA unless his ground game is as good as they say, but he's still favored to win reelection right now, and NV looks to be solidifying behind him.  

Similarly, I'm not counting on Colorado as part of Obama's coalition unless he's having a good night.

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

[krazen1211]

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

Not sure what you mean. 4.5% of early voters are listed outside of white and African-American categories in NC. And presumably some Hispanic voters are identifying with those categories.

I am using these links right here.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/3016263258/

[krazen1211]

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

Not sure what you mean. 4.5% of early voters are listed outside of white and African-American categories in NC. And presumably some Hispanic voters are identifying with those categories.

I am using these links right here.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/3016263258/

I'm using this one:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Your data source is missing something. It shows literally 1 "other" voter in Mecklenburg County.

Ah, yes, thank you. Something appears to be missing.

It does look like others voted 4.3% of total absentees in the 2008 election and are 4.5% of total absentees thus far in this election based on the links you have.

[krazen1211]

Adrian Gray: Virginia: Base precincts (60%+) for GOP turning at 124% of current 2008 levels. DEM precincts are at 98%. In other words, GOP doing well.

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won

3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)

[krazen1211]

https://twitter.com/guypbenson

Source on the ground in Wisconsin tells me a county clerk in a populous area says she's seen a major increase in GOP early voting.

more early votes from Waukesha County (suburban Milwaukee, pop 390k) than Dane County (Madison, pop 495k)

[krazen1211]

NC:

Dem    50.7%
Rep    30.5%
None/Oth    18.8%

Gap is down 0.7 points from yesterday, which should be disturbing because this should be the D's top week. 

From the same day comparison, D's are running 8.3 points behind where they were in 2008. 

And it went more old and more white. too.

[krazen1211]

Iowa today:

R: 99680
D: 155089
I: 67553

R: 30.9%
D: 48.1%
I: 20.9%

Iowa today:

R: 118716
D: 175019
I: 81927

R: 31.6%
D: 46.7%
I: 21.8%


Compared to 2004, both D and R are roughly 20k below total absentee counts. I's are 40k below. That is very nice as these are liberal leaning I's.

[krazen1211]

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

Where?

[krazen1211]

The GOP is soaring in North Carolina


Yesterday:

Party Reg   
Dem   50.7%
Rep   30.5%
None/Oth   18.8%


Race   
White   65.3%
Black           30.2%
Other   4.5%


Today:


Party Reg   
Dem   50.3%
Rep   30.8%
None/Oth   18.8%


Race   
White   65.9%
Black           29.5%
Other   4.5%

[krazen1211]

As of today in Colorado

Total:
 
R: 187,824 (39.7%)
D: 171,971 (36.3%)
U: 108,421 (22.9%)
 
Mail-In/Absentee Ballots
 
R: 172,461
D: 158,139
U: 98,532
 
Early Voting
 
R: 15,363
D: 13,832
U: 9,889

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/26/file_attachments/170739/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B26%2B2012.pdf


R: 244253 (39.0%)
D: 225850 (36.1%)
I: 149877 (23.9%)

[krazen1211]

Iowa today:

R: 118716
D: 175019
I: 81927

R: 31.6%
D: 46.7%
I: 21.8%


Compared to 2004, both D and R are roughly 20k below total absentee counts. I's are 40k below. That is very nice as these are liberal leaning I's.

Iowa today:


R: 135091
D: 192435
I: 95586

R: 31.9%
D: 45.4%
I: 22.6%

[krazen1211]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Well, Obama could plunge to 15% among GA Whites.

So, even 33% Blacks won't help carry the state.

60% Whites (x 0.15) = 9%
33% Blacks (x 0.95) = 31.4%
  7% Others (x 0.65) = 4.6%

Obama => 45% in Georgia

You need to add more whites.

[krazen1211]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Actually, I've been noting that black turnout was higher in NC for a while.  It is also older there.

http://www.sos.ga.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/Earlyvotingstats08.htm

Early voting in Georgia in 2008 was 34.6% black, 60.7% white. This 33% is actually below 2008 pace.

Early + total election day voting in Georgia was 30.0% black, 64.1% white.


But why should anyone examine the real numbers when we can just crap them out?

[krazen1211]

Iowa today:


R: 135091
D: 192435
I: 95586

R: 31.9%
D: 45.4%
I: 22.6%

R: 151007
D: 209750
I: 109493

R: 32.1%
D: 44.5%
I: 23.2%

[krazen1211]

Interesting. Republicans are closing the gap in percentage terms, but Dems maintain and expand it in absolute terms.

Yes, that is the pattern. For the record, in the past 3 presidential elections, registered Democrats have been at 79% turnout while registered Republicans have been at 81% turnout. The GOP put up a 70k margin on election day 2004 to counter -53k in early voting.

[krazen1211]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/26/file_attachments/170739/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B26%2B2012.pdf


R: 244253 (39.0%)
D: 225850 (36.1%)
I: 149877 (23.9%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/29/file_attachments/171536/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B29%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 1/3 of the vote is in.

D: 289733 (36.0%)
R: 309221 (38.5%)
I: 197308 (24.5%)

[krazen1211]

North Carolina.

Yep, Obama is finished.


2012:

D: 835773 (49.3%)
R: 531134 (31.3%)
I: 329992 (19.4%)

White: 1131731 (66.6%)
Black: 486899 (28.6%)
Other: 81510 (4.8%)

2008:

D: 795442 (54.7%)
R: 406830 (27.9%)
I: 251487 (17.2%)

White: 984076 (67.7%)
Black: 412303 (28.3%)
Other: 58279 (4.0%)

[krazen1211]

The GOP is soaring in Nevada.

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/day-10-republicans-have-most-robust-day-yet-clark-still-trail-48000-voters#.UI_y2m_A8l8

[krazen1211]

R: 151007
D: 209750
I: 109493

R: 32.1%
D: 44.5%
I: 23.2%

Iowa

R: 159866
D: 219778
I: 117485

R: 32.2%
D: 44.2%
I: 23.6%

[krazen1211]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/29/file_attachments/171536/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B29%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 1/3 of the vote is in.

D: 289733 (36.0%)
R: 309221 (38.5%)
I: 197308 (24.5%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/30/file_attachments/171833/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B30%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 40% of the vote is in.


D: 343721 (35.5%)
R: 370982 (38.4%)
I: 241294 (25.0%)

R's gaining in relative and absolute terms.

[krazen1211]

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

Welcome and I agree.

Unfortunately for you the GOP will be surging 70-80k on election day just like 2004.

[krazen1211]

Has the registration changed? 

The GOP had a 5k advantage in 2004 and an 11k advantage today. Both parties are within 10k of their November 2004 totals. More Democrats now means less later. In 2004 Iowa Republicans cast 20k more votes than Iowa Democrats.

[krazen1211]

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

Welcome and I agree.

Unfortunately for you the GOP will be surging 70-80k on election day just like 2004.

But in 2004 there were fewer early voters. Tougher to get 70-80K out of a smaller pool of voters that will be left on election day.

Iowa Republicans have averaged 81% turnout in the last 3 Presidential elections while Iowa Democrats averaged 79%. Your statement is only true if Iowa Republicans decide not to vote.