House Leadership Megathread: it's House of Cards but without the monologues

[Mehmentum]

Wow!  This is crazy.  So much drama!  So much suspense!

[Mehmentum]

Sabato's Crystal Ball wrote a piece on the 'Republican Doomsday Scenario' in the House.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mehmentum]

If the Freedom Caucus is refusing to back Ryan, doesn't that negate the whole point of him running in the first place?  If I were a Republican, I would be absolutely furious with these people.

[Mehmentum]

Its pretty obvious that Ryan doesn't want the job, and is only reconsidering out of a sense of duty.  Would he really take it if he has to make those kinds of concessions?

[Mehmentum]

If the HFC truly refuses any compromise, what would happen?

Either the GOP leadership caves, or a coalition of Democrats and Republicans elects a speaker.

[Mehmentum]

Its starting to look like the best solution for the Republicans is to keep Boehner on through 2016.  Of course, this would all happen again in 2017 so they better start preparing for that.

[Mehmentum]

Has Ryan given any indication of when he's making a decision?

Not that I have heard. My guess, is that he has said OK, but I don't want to make concessions to the Freedom Caucus.  So until the Freedom Caucus bends over, things drift along. We may end up with Boehner staying in place for the balance of his term. (I suspect a majority of the Pub caucus is not prepared to make any concessions to the hostage takers, so it is not as if a third personality has that much potential to cut the Gordian Knot here.) That might not be a bad thing. Indeed, that might be what Boehner and Ryan have agreed upon. Just a wild guess on my part.

If that is what happens, the Pub primary season for House races might get a lot more interesting. Some forces out there might be motivated to try to cull the Freedom Caucus. Hostage taking in the context of electing a Speaker is just not an acceptable tactic in the minds of some, including me. Vote for the choice of the majority of your caucus, cross lines and vote for the Dem, but don't just refuse to vote at all, or for a third party which has the some effect, so that nobody gets 218 votes.

In a more perfect world, it would be nice if some Dems vote for Ryan to resolve this, but we don't live in a more perfect world apparently. I suspect the Dems favorite Pub for Speaker is in fact Boehner, so it is not as if they have much incentive to end the impasse.

What's the long term repercussions for the party of Boehner announcing and then retracting his resignation, if that happens? I've got to imagine it's not good.

More interesting question, to me: what happens in January 2017? Say the Dems have an OK, not great year. Maybe they cut down the GOP lead in the House by 10 seats. Freedom Caucus doesn't make any gains, doesn't lose any seats. But now they only need 20 instead of 30 of them to stick together to deny a Speaker who doesn't meet their demands. What changes to make it a fixable problem by then?

Boehner staying on probably wouldn't have any bad long term effects.  Yeah, it would be a bad news cycle, but most people will have forgotten it by November 2016.

Your scenario, however, might be the GOP's nightmare scenario.  If the leadership can't take out enough Freedom caucus members or loses too many seats to the Democrats, then they're truly between a rock and a hard place.

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, obviously. Any speculation about which of those fault lines are the most vulnerable?

Well I have no clue, we're going into uncharted territory here.

[Mehmentum]

The fact that the FC doesn't recognize Reid's blatant political shenanigans is hilarious.

Anyway, Ryan has several demands of his own if he's going to be speaker.  Three major ones stick out, 1.) Any rules changes must be approved by the entire conference.  2.) No motions to vacate the chair. 3.) Everyone in the conference must vote for him, without a single dissenter.

So Ryan is walking an incredibly thin line here.  The ball is in the Freedom Caucus' court now.

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, no surprise with the Ryan. Kind of sad, though; I was hoping that we would be seeing a Tea Party takeover leading to the GOP's imminent downfall in 2016. In all honesty, Ryan is probably the best strategic choice for the GOP to make. He's popular, has positions that both sides of the GOP can tolerate, and is charismatic enough to actually not let the GOP die.

and lol Harry Reid

Don't despair, there's still time for the Freedom Caucus to screw everything up!

[Mehmentum]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So it actually does sound like most of the Freedom Caucus is supporting Ryan, but there are some holdouts.  If Ryan is going to hold himself to that 'unanimous support' threshold, then it won't be good enough.

[Mehmentum]

So the Freedom Caucus is folding?  I was expecting much more of a fuss from them.

[Mehmentum]

Those two things paint a very different picture.  I wonder if the rest of the leadership is okay with this?  There's a lot we don't know.

[Mehmentum]

Tomorrow could either see everyone in the GOP breathing a huge sigh of relief, or absolute chaos.