March 1st State Ratings

[Mehmentum]

Republicans:
Alabama: Likely Trump
Alaska: Tump-Cruz tossup
Arkansas: Likely Trump
Georgia: Likely Trump
Massachusetts: Safe Trump
Minnesota: Lean Cruz
Oklahoma: Likely Trump
Tennessee: Likely Trump
Texas: Likely Cruz
Vermont: Trump-Rubio-Kasich tossup
Virginia: Lean Trump

Democrats:
Alabama: Safe Clinton
American Samoa: Likely Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Likely Sanders
Oklahoma: Lean Clinton
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Safe Clinton

Analysis:
The Republican side is much more unpredictable.  We know very little about how Nevada will turn out.  Will Cruz collapse after SC?  Its possible, but I don't think so.  How much will Rubio gain, some perhaps? A lot of variables with no answers at this point.

The Democratic side is much more clear cut since Nevada has voted.  Clinton will almost certainly win by a huge margin (probably by 20+ points) in South Carolina.  There are no debates until after Super Tuesday, so barring a massive scandal in the next week and a half, Clinton will sweep the south (except maybe Oklahoma).  Sanders, however, will have a decent shot at taking every non-southern state on Super Tuesday.