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jfern
Atlas Institution
Posts: 53,914
Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
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« on: June 09, 2012, 11:30:41 PM » |
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Can the Democrats get a 2/3rds majority? They need 27/40. They have 14/20 of those not up, so need 13/20 of those up.
Note that the November turnout should be more Democratic than the June turnout
5 of those are D vs D races, so the Democrats have a safe 18 right there.
The following 7 had Democrats get >54%. These are pretty safe too. 7, 11, 17, 19, 25, 35, 39. So, 25 pretty safe.
The following 5 had Republicans break 60%, and are off the table, 1,21, 23, 29, 37.
The 5th had the Republicans win 59-41, and have a registration advantage, so probably R.
That leaves as the two really competitive districts.
27: Democrat lost 49-51, and has a 5 point registration advantage. With higher turnout, the Democrat would be favored.
31: Again the Republican got 51%, but there were 2 Democrats. Harder for the Democrat to win than the 27th, but the Democrat could be favored with a high turnout
Note that it would be unlikely that they would get a 2/3rds majority in the Assembly.
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