The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (user search)
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  The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (search mode)
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Author Topic: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)  (Read 51792 times)
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: March 04, 2014, 09:13:16 PM »

It looks like Alameel might win without a runoff Shocked

The Texas Democratic party should probably just disband.

George P. Bush is projected to win (Land Co.)

And Texas should probably be given back to Mexico.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2014, 10:36:40 PM »

In early results for California, we have

Governor:
Brown 59.6%
Kashkari 16.0%
Donnelly 12.5%


Controller (crazy 4-way race with 2 Ds and 2 Rs):
Betty Yee 24.0%
Perez 21.8%
Evans 21.3%
Swearengin 21.2%

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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2014, 02:52:33 AM »

If there are two GOP candidates in the general for Controller in November, you can bet Perez is going to be eating some tough [inks] from the party.

If there are two, the California Democratic party needs to put their full forces behind repealing our idiotic top two system. The results are still early, but it's unsettling that 2 Republicans lead for the Controller race, and aren't far off from leading in CA-31 again.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2014, 03:06:20 AM »

Epic battle for 2nd place for CA Controller. The Democrats desperately need one of their candidates to secure a place on the November ballot.

   John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
604,225   21.6%
   Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
604,959   21.6%
   David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
611,382   21.8%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2014, 03:23:11 AM »

Perez looks like he might take 2nd. It's 91.9% reporting statewide versus 87.9% in his home term of Los Angeles. However,  there's probably a million uncounted absentees. I voted for Yee.

   John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
616,611   21.6%
   Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
613,739   21.5%
   David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
620,955   21.8%

Note that first place is obviously

Ashley Swearengin
(Party Preference: REP)
695,852   24.4%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2014, 03:31:47 AM »
« Edited: June 04, 2014, 03:36:00 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Perez looks like he might take 2nd. It's 91.9% reporting statewide versus 87.9% in his home term of Los Angeles. However,  there's probably a million uncounted absentees. I voted for Yee.

   John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
616,611   21.6%
   Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
613,739   21.5%
   David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
620,955   21.8%

Note that first place is obviously

Ashley Swearengin
(Party Preference: REP)
695,852   24.4%

With any luck those absentees will break Yee's way. I can live with Perez but only barely -- this whole race was just a huge power grab by him.

Agreed that Yee is the most qualified. Obviously with a possible million or so absentees, it will be still be too close to call this even once it hits 100% reporting.  However, I do think Perez is the most likely to win it. Here are the latest.

    John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)   624,843   
21.6%
    Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)   620,834   
21.5%
    David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)   625,674   
21.6%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2014, 04:20:40 AM »

With 98.8% reporting Perez takes 2nd as predicted. Los Angeles is 97.4% reporting.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)   634,112   
21.7%
    Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)   628,496   
21.5%
    David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)   633,074   
21.6%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2014, 03:00:25 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2014, 03:02:31 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Yep. Perez is still up with about 2400 with 100% in. Wow. And last night it looked like he would be the GOP's spoiler in this race.

I'm not sure this is over yet. Absentee ballots dropped of on election day are generally not counted right away.

Aren't the democrats the ones who put that system into place? It's hilarious they keep being screwed by it.

It was a Proposition. The Democrats and Arnold did refer it to the voters as part of Republican Abel Maldonado's extortion for voting for a budget. Too bad that the Proposition reducing the 2/3rds majority to simple for passing a budget didn't pass a little earlier. I think all 6 political parties opposed the Proposition.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2014, 10:07:20 PM »

Yep. Perez is still up with about 2400 with 100% in. Wow. And last night it looked like he would be the GOP's spoiler in this race.

I'm not sure this is over yet. Absentee ballots dropped of on election day are generally not counted right away.

Aren't the democrats the ones who put that system into place? It's hilarious they keep being screwed by it.

It was a Proposition. The Democrats and Arnold did refer it to the voters as part of Republican Abel Maldonado's extortion for voting for a budget. Too bad that the Proposition reducing the 2/3rds majority to simple for passing a budget didn't pass a little earlier. I think all 6 political parties opposed the Proposition.

I think it's probably safe to say that Perez will make the runoff. Don't absentees tend to favor Democrats?

Schwarzenegger and Maldonado were the only two people who publicly backed prop 14 in 2010 to chance the primary system. The legislature had to stomach sending the prop to the voters as part of a compromise to get the budget through. Basically everyone prayed it wouldn't pass, but it did 53-47ish.

I thought it still took a 2/3 majority to pass a budget? No reason to change that rule since the legislature's majorities tend to be so lopsided anyway.

Absentees favoring Democrats certainly wouldn't prevent Yee from taking second.

A different Proposition also passed in 2010 dropped it to a simple majority to pass a budget.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2014, 11:49:55 PM »

If there are two GOP candidates in the general for Controller in November, you can bet Perez is going to be eating some tough [inks] from the party.

If there are two, the California Democratic party needs to put their full forces behind repealing our idiotic top two system. The results are still early, but it's unsettling that 2 Republicans lead for the Controller race, and aren't far off from leading in CA-31 again.
Even if Perez/Yee sneak through, at the time of this post Perez's lead over Evans has reduced to 1924 votes. California needs to do its best to get rid of top two. It's just terrible election policy. Maybe we should do a popular referendum. My bet is that top two would die if it went up for a vote in 2016.

Hopefully it could be defeated. It passed on the June 2010 ballot. Strangely it got 53.74%, but passed in all but 3 counties, 2 of which were San Francisco and Orange.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_14_(2010)

If there are two GOP candidates in the general for Controller in November, you can bet Perez is going to be eating some tough [inks] from the party.

If there are two, the California Democratic party needs to put their full forces behind repealing our idiotic top two system. The results are still early, but it's unsettling that 2 Republicans lead for the Controller race, and aren't far off from leading in CA-31 again.
Even if Perez/Yee sneak through, at the time of this post Perez's lead over Evans has reduced to 1924 votes. California needs to do its best to get rid of top two. It's just terrible election policy. Maybe we should do a popular referendum. My bet is that top two would die if it went up for a vote in 2016.

The problem is not with top 2, it's with abysmal laziness of Democratic electorate to turn out in ANY elections, but few chosen. And i don't want to give a bunch of hyperpolarised (on the verge to being "crazy") "activists" in both major parties a right to decide who will be next Governor, Senator or Congressman. So, i am absolutely in favor of "top 2", which gives indies, who dislike both parties (like me), a much better choice.

LOL, 2 Republicans and no one else isn't much of a choice.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2014, 01:09:10 AM »

LOL, 2 Republicans and no one else isn't much of a choice.

Not a big one. But there was an ample choice in primary. Most people decided that 2 Republicans were the most deserving people in this paarticular district (in many other these were 2 Democrats). That's absolutely fine with me. What people like me got BEFORE: a pair of candidates, chosen by "activists", both of which they frequently despised, and voted for those, whom they hated least. Is THAT a choice?Huh

The turnout is really low in the primary. And you have at most 2 choices in November. I was forced to abstain in the 2012 Senate race for lack of a non horrible candidate.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2014, 01:44:30 AM »


This makes a lot of sense and thanks for good analysis. IMHO, the reason why hardliners like Donnelly win in the most liberal areas of the state (like Bay Area) is very simple - few remaining Republicans there (or, at least, active part of them) tend to be a "diehard" type, living in "homes attacked and besieged by enemy" - and vote correspondingly. Traditionally, many Bay Area Republicans (which were elected from area until 1990 or, in few cases, until app. 2000) were of very moderate, even openly progressive variety, but older of them are now dead, and for their children and grandchildren there is very little sense to stay Republican.

Sounds about right.

Exactly what i meant. And it's a pity - in the past this area supplied excellent and thoughtful Republican legislators anyone (even Democrats) could be proud of...

Bay area Democrats certainly go right-wing enough with noted anti-atheist bigot Eric Swallwell.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2014, 08:06:39 PM »

The second Republican is narrowly in second place for CA Controller now. Democratic turnout was poor, and that's very bad with the stupid top two system. It really needs to be repealed.

Current numbers.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
665,109   
21.6%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
660,103   
21.4%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
666,252   
21.6%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2014, 10:11:00 PM »

The second Republican is narrowly in second place for CA Controller now. Democratic turnout was poor, and that's very bad with the stupid top two system. It really needs to be repealed.

Current numbers.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
665,109   
21.6%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
660,103   
21.4%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
666,252   
21.6%

How many ballots are left to count?

About a million.

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2014, 12:27:00 AM »

The second Republican is narrowly in second place for CA Controller now. Democratic turnout was poor, and that's very bad with the stupid top two system. It really needs to be repealed.

Current numbers.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
665,109   
21.6%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
660,103   
21.4%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
666,252   
21.6%

How many ballots are left to count?

About a million.

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

Hopefully since LA (Perez territory) makes up the largest portion of uncounted ballots, they will come in strong for him. Or is that wishful thinking?

I wouldn't get too excited about Los Angeles. I think their share of outstanding ballots is less than their share of total ballots.

However, uncounted ballots tend to be a little more Democratic for other reasons.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2014, 09:11:00 PM »

The second Republican was leading earlier in the day

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
685,026   
21.6%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
679,144   
21.4%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
685,686   
21.6%

But now Perez leads again

   John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
725,557   
21.5%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
722,380   
21.5%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
722,832   
21.5%

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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2014, 01:04:23 AM »

The second Republican drops to 4th for the first time that I've noticed.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
732,688   
21.5%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
730,928   
21.5%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
729,091   
21.4%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2014, 09:55:58 PM »

Betty Yee retakes the lead for 2nd place for California Controller. All 6 permutations of the ordering have now occurred. Perez isn't far behind, but the good news is that the second Republican isn't looking too good any more.

John A. Pérez
(Party Preference: DEM)
751,340   
21.7%
Betty T. Yee
(Party Preference: DEM)
751,691   
21.7%
David Evans
(Party Preference: REP)
740,576   
21.3%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,907


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2014, 11:41:36 PM »

RIP anyone who was taking a shot for each county Teachout won. She's won almost 30.

RIP in peace Panda Express.

She's won half the counties, 31.
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