Clinton: Polls Showing Sanders Could Beat Trump "Mean Nothing To Me" (user search)
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  Clinton: Polls Showing Sanders Could Beat Trump "Mean Nothing To Me" (search mode)
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Author Topic: Clinton: Polls Showing Sanders Could Beat Trump "Mean Nothing To Me"  (Read 1564 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,854


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: May 22, 2016, 05:50:45 PM »

Clinton herself was polling better than Obama after it was obvious that she lost the nomination in 2008 and Republicans stopped attacking her.

No

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Democratic_nominee_vs._Republican_nominee_2
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,854


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2016, 06:04:34 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2016, 06:06:37 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »


The final two polls in that link both show her doing better. And that also overlaps with the mid May/late May/early June state polls I linked to that showed her doing better.

Sorry jfern, she was objectively polling better in the final few weeks of the race.

That's some serious cherry-picking. The last 2 have her doing 1 and 4 points better. The previous 2 have Obama doing 9 and 6 points better. The average of the May polls was a slight Obama advantage. There were some polls where she did better, and some where Obama did better, which is very different from now, where every poll shows Bernie doing better.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,854


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2016, 06:12:29 PM »


The final two polls in that link both show her doing better. And that also overlaps with the mid May/late May/early June state polls I linked to that showed her doing better.

Sorry jfern, she was objectively polling better in the final few weeks of the race.

That's some serious cherry-picking. The last 2 have her doing 1 and 4 points better. The previous 2 have Obama doing 9 and 6 points better. The average of the May polls was a slight Obama advantage.

Dude, you actually have to look at the field dates. Maybe Obama was doing better in early May, who cares? My point is that she was objectively doing better in mid to late May and early June, as the totality of the sparse national polls (and the much more abundant state polls) showed.

It really varied poll to poll who did better. It's really dishonest to claim that there was much difference once averaged.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,854


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2016, 06:18:49 PM »

Hillary lied about there being no negative ads against Bernie.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/22/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-wrong-negative-ads-bernie-sanders/
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,854


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2016, 06:34:02 PM »

So really, if anything, Hillary and the DNC have been relatively magnanimous and exceedingly kind.

How can you be that tone deaf?
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,854


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2016, 06:37:51 PM »

Oh I know, I'm not saying she needs to right now.  Just that I want to see it.  I'm hungry for some good old fashioned Clinton war games, the inclusive mother-bird Hillary is boring.

Lately I've been wondering what the fallout would be if she literally said "f-ck you" to Trump's face. Honestly, I see few downsides.

Imagine if, at the first debate, Trump straight-up calls her an enabler and woman-hater for being angry at her husband's mistresses.

"I've only said this to one other person: my husband. It was in a moment of real anguish. I cannot explain the feelings of betrayal and anger I felt when I found out my husband had been cheating on me and disrespecting me the way he was. I hope no one has to feel that, but those women who have sadly been in the same situation know exactly what I mean. And for you, Donald Trump, womanizer extraordinaire, to stand here and lecture me for simply having these feelings...  I'll say it again: F-ck you. You would be an insult to the office of the presidency."

BOOM.

One can dream. Purple heart

I think we've seen enough of crazy angry Hillary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC4Pvm6Oj4A
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,854


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2016, 12:15:37 AM »


The final two polls in that link both show her doing better. And that also overlaps with the mid May/late May/early June state polls I linked to that showed her doing better.

Sorry jfern, she was objectively polling better in the final few weeks of the race.

That's some serious cherry-picking. The last 2 have her doing 1 and 4 points better. The previous 2 have Obama doing 9 and 6 points better. The average of the May polls was a slight Obama advantage.

Dude, you actually have to look at the field dates. Maybe Obama was doing better in early May, who cares? My point is that she was objectively doing better in mid to late May and early June, as the totality of the sparse national polls (and the much more abundant state polls) showed.

It really varied poll to poll who did better. It's really dishonest to claim that there was much difference once averaged.

Okay, I guess I have to do this...

Let's look at polls conducted in the final 2 weeks of the race, and who performed better. The only two national polls had her doing 4 points and 1 point better, but there was an abundance of state polls during this time.

State polls:
ME: Tie
NY: C+1
OH: C+8

CO: O+9
FL: C+16
MO: C+5
NC: C+14

UT: O+10
VA: O+1

CA: C+5
FL: C+11
NV: C+11
OH: C+11
PA: C+7

MS: O+4
CT: O+14

NH: C+5
PA: C+9

AZ: O+4
CA: O+4
NE: O+2

NV: C+10
MT: O+3
MN: Tie
KY: C+34
MS: O+4
CA: Tie
NY: C+11
WA: O+1
LA: C+2
MA: C+17
CT: C+3



Here it is in map form:



Looks pretty decisive to me. The person performing far better in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina vs. the person performing far better in Colorado and a hair better in Virginia. Hmm...who was more electable?!

Were there really that many state polls in 2 weeks? Or were those the latest poll, even if it was from a year before?
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,854


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2016, 12:25:58 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2016, 12:28:53 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »


The final two polls in that link both show her doing better. And that also overlaps with the mid May/late May/early June state polls I linked to that showed her doing better.

Sorry jfern, she was objectively polling better in the final few weeks of the race.

That's some serious cherry-picking. The last 2 have her doing 1 and 4 points better. The previous 2 have Obama doing 9 and 6 points better. The average of the May polls was a slight Obama advantage.

Dude, you actually have to look at the field dates. Maybe Obama was doing better in early May, who cares? My point is that she was objectively doing better in mid to late May and early June, as the totality of the sparse national polls (and the much more abundant state polls) showed.

It really varied poll to poll who did better. It's really dishonest to claim that there was much difference once averaged.

Okay, I guess I have to do this...

Let's look at polls conducted in the final 2 weeks of the race, and who performed better. The only two national polls had her doing 4 points and 1 point better, but there was an abundance of state polls during this time.

State polls:
ME: Tie
NY: C+1
OH: C+8

CO: O+9
FL: C+16
MO: C+5
NC: C+14

UT: O+10
VA: O+1

CA: C+5
FL: C+11
NV: C+11
OH: C+11
PA: C+7

MS: O+4
CT: O+14

NH: C+5
PA: C+9

AZ: O+4
CA: O+4
NE: O+2

NV: C+10
MT: O+3
MN: Tie
KY: C+34
MS: O+4
CA: Tie
NY: C+11
WA: O+1
LA: C+2
MA: C+17
CT: C+3



Here it is in map form:



Looks pretty decisive to me. The person performing far better in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina vs. the person performing far better in Colorado and a hair better in Virginia. Hmm...who was more electable?!

Were there really that many state polls in 2 weeks? Or were those the latest poll, even if it was from a year before?

The most recent Connecticut was March and Louisiana was April. The most recent NC poll had McCain up 3 over both of them. I'm sure I can find many more issues with those numbers.

One thing to note about those Electoral Vote maps. McCain has 190 weak or strong against Hillary but only 175 against Obama. There were a ridiculous amount of barely GOP states for Obama, and he won all of them except SC.
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