I fluctuate on this a bit, not being enamored with either candidate of course but certainly hoping for a Democratic victory, I do feel the election is ours to lose.
My 'gut' is that Donald Trump is too much an idiot, too much of a risk, and has alienated enough people that he cannot recover.
But my gut is also telling me that Hillary Clinton has a remarkable capacity to blow it, due to her complacency and inability to properly read the electorate. She is too secretive for her own good (I understand that she distrusts the press, but she does need to work on developing a better relationship with the media, honestly) and because she is really going to win this by sheer virtue of "not being Donald Trump", she has room for error, but it is not unlimited.
We will have to wait and see how the general election campaigns play out. Neither candidate is perceived as honest or sincere, but Clinton has more room to 'pivot' than Trump, who is a clown, and could be provoked into making at least three or four contradictory statements just by discussing an issue on which he is uninformed - something that will happen numerous times over the coming months. Clinton's biggest job is fixing the understanding that she is the "status quo" candidate. She (and Obama) will need to admit that the economy is not perfect, that the standard of living has declined for people outside of the top incomes, and that people have every right to be upset after over 35 years of prioritizing defense and voodoo economics over entitlements and infrastructure, to put that in the simplest possible way. But it looks like Clinton doesn't understand why she is going to win this election. She is so determined to maintain the Order of Things that even universal health care is not likely to be a goal once elected; she is unwilling to tackle climate change by implementing a carbon tax; she has no plan to address systemic poverty; she wants to keep the death penalty and criminal penalties for cannabis. She can differentiate herself from Trump, and prove him to be the 'establishment' candidate, if she runs on these sorts of ideas. But the likelihood is that she will not.
According to Hillary, women can't be establishment. Her only anti-establishment appeals will be useless identity politics like that.
