Sanders would have won (user search)
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  Sanders would have won (search mode)
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Author Topic: Sanders would have won  (Read 2253 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,908


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: November 09, 2016, 04:54:01 AM »

Definitely. Bernie would have won the Presidency and coattailed in a Democratic Senate. I don't know about the House though.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,908


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2016, 04:58:51 AM »

Bernie would have played better in Michigan and Wisconsin, but he would have been a bad fit for Virginia.

The thing about Virginia is that success there is so uncorrelated with the other swing states.  Kaine was a big mistake.

Virginia wasn't going to be a great state for Trump anyways, but even you give him, Bernie makes up for it by winning most of the Great Lakes states.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,908


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2016, 09:30:43 PM »

It is hard to say. We do know that key elements of Sanders-ism didn't do well. In Colorado single-payer healthcare (essentially Sanders-care and something Sanders endorsed and campaigned for) was defeated by 60 points. And in California Sanders campaigned hard for Prop 51 to lower drug pricing (by setting CA prices to US VA pricing) lost by 8 points. California did pass a non-binding law against Citizens United (another signature Sanders issue) but that passed by less than 5% (significantly under-performing Clinton in CA).   

Proposition voting tends to go differently than partisan races, though. In 1998, California's Prop. 227 got 61% of the vote, and then last night Prop. 58 repealed much of it with 72% of the vote. You can't explain that with some simple partisan model.
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