*Official Election 2005 Results Thread*

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Props 76-80 will go down hard.

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Props 76-80 will go down hard.

What do you think will happen to the other 3 (and I'm looking for what will HAPPEN, as opposed to what you WANT, jfern)?

Prop 74 should go down.  Prop 73 is hard to say. Prop 75 looks like it could pass. 

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None of the precincts in Los Angeles and San Francisco have been reported yet. All of these propositions are going to be defeated.

Prop 75 is the most worrisome, but you're right it doesn't look so bad when we look at the counties.



We can afford almost a 10 point swing from the 2004 Presidential result.

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Here's how Arnold's Props are doing

The ones that were his:

74 : teacher tenure - probably fail
75: union political one - hard to say
76: education spending - getting spanked
77: redistricting - definitely going down

Other's he supported:

73 : abortion - should fail
78: big pharma - getting spanked


77 was his main one.

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Has anyone said anything about CA - 48 ? How is that race going?

I don't think that's tonight.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Has anyone said anything about CA - 48 ? How is that race going?

I don't think that's tonight.

Wikipedia must be wrong then:

A special election will be held in the 48th Congressional District of California to choose a United States Representative to replace Republican Chris Cox, who resigned effective August 2, 2005, to become Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. A primary election was held on October 4, and the general election will take place on November 8.

Yep, it's wrong.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

73,74,75 are getting closer and closer.

  73 Y    Minor's Pregnancy          1,154,794  51.2   1,101,061  48.8  Map

  74 Y    Teacher Tenure             1,141,370  50.2   1,134,089  49.8  Map

  75 Y    Public Union Dues          1,224,055  53.9   1,047,255  46.1  Map

  76 N    Spending/Funding             966,882  42.6   1,302,433  57.4  Map

  77 N    Redistricting              1,026,741  45.6   1,221,869  54.4  Map

  78 N    Rx Drug Discounts            960,745  42.9   1,278,166  57.1  Map

  79 N    Rx Drug Rebates              848,879  38.1   1,376,016  61.9  Map

  80 N    Electric Regulation          761,345  34.8   1,423,324  65.2

Not really a surprise if you look at what was reporting. I expect 73 and 74 to go down, leaving only 1 of the 6 Propositions Arnold supported, Prop 75,  with a chance of passing.

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Virginia update:

Kaine won by almost 6 points.
Deed takes narrow lead in AG race.

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm

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Latest California update.

With 22.7% of the precincts (plus most absentee votes) reporting:

Prop 74 - teacher tenure NOW TRAILING
Prop 73 stays about the same at 51.2%
Prop 75 at 53.5%

http://vote2005.ss.ca.gov/Returns/prop/00.htm

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Sweet. The 3 closest Props are down to

73: 50.2% - the abortion Prop is close to flipping
74: 48.8% - the teach tenure Prop is looking toast
75: 52.4% - the union polical Prop has tightened, too close to call yet

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73 has flipped!

73 - parental notification for abortion at 49.8%
74 - teach tenure requiring 5 years at 48.7%

Only Prop now leading is
75 - union's have to get permission to use money for political campaigns at 52.0%

Good to see that Props 73,74,76,77, and 78 got some Arnoldmentum.

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It keeps getting better

Here's how Arnold's Props are doing:

73: 49.3%
74: 48.0%
75: 51.3%
76: 40.5%
77: 43.7%
78: 41.8%

Stick a fork in 74, and 73 looks like it's going down as well.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Jfern, do you think 75 will flip?

Hopefully it will, but I can't say for sure.

Interestly, the Props have been somewhat non-linear. Prop 74 was doing 0.8% better than Prop 73 for a while, now that they've both flipped, Prop 74 is doing 1.5% better.

Hmm...  well, mostly good news for the major races, particularly Virginia.  I'm hoping parental notification passes, and the San Francisco handgun ban fails, but I expect the opposite to happen for both.  Otherwise the California results are looking good.

We like our unrestricted abortion on demand.

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Fliers received in the mail count: 7

Glossies: 5

Breakdown:
Democratic: 3
Big Pharma pretending to be Democrat: 1
Big Pharma: 2
Arnold (strangely enough the only place it mentions him is "Paid for by Governor Schwarzenegger's California Recovery Team"): 1

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Well, a lot could still go either way.  I am hoping 74 stays down, but LA has just barely started counting, and for some reason the supposedly liberal LA times endorsed the darn thing. 

75 will probably be a nail biter til midnight or so, then gradually slip out of range.

Prop 74 should be going down. Prop 73 could concievably come back from behind, and obviously Prop 75 is the most likely to pass. LA Times said No to 73, but Yes to Prop 75. If Prop 75 passes, you can blame one of the most liberal media organizations in the country. Goes to show you how far right the media is.

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Prop 75 now closer than 73 or 74.

73: 49.1%
74: 47.4%
75: 50.5%

California is a disgrace to ever good person in this country.

Yeah, we're all extremists because we vote 60% no on Propositions like one that would cut education spending, which is already less than the national average, despite our high cost of living.

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Prop 75 now closer than 73 or 74.

73: 49.1%
74: 47.4%
75: 50.5%

California is a disgrace to ever good person in this country.

Yeah, we're all extremists because we vote 60% no on Propositions like one that would cut education spending, which is already less than the national average, despite our high cost of living.

I'm referring mostly to prop 73.

Yes, we remain in the same catagory as fellow extremist states ID, NM, and AK.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:USMinorAbortionLawsMap.png

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YES! ALL GOING DOWN!!!!

Props 73 (49.3%) and 75 (49.9%) are still close.

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Mississippi and North Dakota have it right, though it would preferable if the consent of the fetus/embryo about to be killed were also necessary.

Great, why don't you read some about your utopian world where abortion is illegal here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/10/31/19619/824

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Prop 75 was really close for a bit 1,979,365 to 1,979,524. That was 49.998% yes. Now it's down to 49.7% yes.

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Wow, if everything fails, this will have been quite an election. 8 Propositions, which fail, and 0 Candidates. Thanks for wasting $60 million of our money, Arnold.

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Interestingly, Democrats got pasted in VA state house races. With the GOP also taking the Lt Gov and AG race (though the latter will feature a recount), Kilgore's loss looks like a failure on his part, not some kind of massive anti-GOP groundswell.

Though the CA initiatives are struggling, the leftist efforts in Ohio were blasted.

Democrats are going to spin these various votes rather vigorously, but there is no "there" there. Heck, in VA the GOP did better in 2005 than in 2001, and in NJ Corzine was never expected to lose and not widely expected to face a close race. The props in CA are doing better than many polls indicated, though losing is losing.

Prop 73 was up in basically every poll, and Props 74 and 75 had been up in most. If only 1 of Arnold's 6 Propositions he supported pass, that'll be pretty bad. 0 would be even worse.

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But some are more important politically than others.

Also, bad news for Arnold does not equal some wider political meaning. Arnold is just one Governor, and he can't even run for President.

So if the 5th -7th largest economy in the world doesn't matter to you (depends on exchange rate), then why the hell are you posting about California?

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Kaine's victory backs up the argument that VA is probably the most likely southern state (excluding Florida) to go to the Democrats in the '08 presidential election.

If Warner is the nominee it might be the most winnable.
However, if he isn't, Missouri might be more winnable.

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Very weird, for a while Prop 75 was running about 4 points better than 73. Now they're almost equal, 49.4% and 49.6%. They could end up with almost the same vote totals.