Over 600,000 jobs created in July alone! (user search)
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  Over 600,000 jobs created in July alone! (search mode)
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Author Topic: Over 600,000 jobs created in July alone!  (Read 7156 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,879


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: August 07, 2004, 10:32:54 PM »

The Household survey is
1. Much less reliable than the Establishment survey - Economists don't look at it
2. It shows many fewer jobs created so far this year than the Establishment survey
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,879


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2004, 10:38:36 PM »

You can't just pick whichever numbers you like best each month.

The more reliable Establishmnt number shows 1,267,000 jobs this year.

The less reliable Household number shows 1,179,000 jobs this year.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,879


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2004, 01:23:45 AM »



Self-employment is "surging?"  I doubt it.  With the vast productivity increases, self-employed workers have been unable to compete with larger coorportations, thus resulting in their elimination.  You cannot simply look at job numbers you don't like, and then say "self-employment is surging!"

Defarge,

Actually, there was an increase of nearly 1 MILLION people in 2003 who called themselves self-employed for the first time, and that figure is expected to be even higher in 2004. Here's a link that isn't ecxactly a right wing organization talking about the massive increases in this category.

http://www.centrists.org/pages/2003/09/28_guest_econ.html
Let me include some anectodal evidence as well. My wife is self employed and would be counted as unemployed for most of the previous three years. This year has been almost as good as the some of the late 90's. She's active in her professional organization, and things are picking up for others as well.

One reason in her profession is that as companies star to expand, they first pick up free lance workers for projects. This keeps labor and especially benefit costs down. If a particalr project becomes permanent, the firm will feel more confident in hiring a full-time employee. iterestingly, even after this occurs, free lancers do well, as long as the business is expanding.

Is she trying to find a job? If not, she's not counted as unemployed.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,879


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2004, 07:37:11 AM »

I posted this in the other forum

we are creating jobs alright but all overseas...


Some time ago, we decoupled Gold from the dollar. It seemed to be the best thing to do. A shortage of liquidity was the reason for the crash of 1929 the reasoning went.  We still remember the crash of 1987 and the bear market in 2000 which might reassert itself in the coming months.

The crashes havent gone away and neither have the recessions. What we are happily choking on is the ability to print dollars without any relation to anything.  

The dollar has declined 20% or more in value in the last three years vs the Euro. Do you think our surfiet of Dollars has anything to do with it. We have a 500 billion dollar a year trade deficit. We have this paper dollar buying Goods and is used as a defacto global trading medium. Countries hoard dollars as most of the world trade is conducted in Dollars.

With the dollar dropping 20% vs the major currencies it might cause other nations to pick a more stable currency, which at the moment seems the euro.  The Dollar is artificially supported by the buyers of our Government debt, (they are the countries with a trade surplus China and Japan). Could this entire situation unravel?

In every recent testimony before congress and the Senate Alan Greenspan he has warned of the high level of deficit financing.

You may ask, what has this got to do with the elections in November. To which I will state that a vote for either Democrats or Republicans will maintain the status quo.  I have heard arguments that it has been that way for the last 50 years, what difference does it make now. Economic disaster of any great magnitude take time to develop. When laws of economics are flouted consistently, corrective measures occur. This disaster which is looming is going to be worse than 1929. At least in 1929 we had Gold as our harbor of wealth, now we will have nothing just some empty pols promise who has cashed in and will be vacationing in the Swiss Alps, while John Q public wonders what happened.

If you need to take evasive action, it is not after the disaster occurs but rather in the times of action that are presented to you like the elections this year. The earlier we start to treat the disease the better the chances of it not being as painful.

The writing is there on the wall...

People start to seriously start looking at Libertarian candidate Badnarik who is our best hope of getting us out of this mess.
 


1. Do you really think Badnarik has any chance of winning?
2. Does he have crazy ideas, like privitizing sidewalks and roads?

Anyways, I'd say the situation is possibly the worst since the Great Depression, but I can't imagine something actually comperable to the Great Depression.  There's a big difference between worst since the Great Depression and the Great Depression.
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,879


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2004, 10:29:36 PM »


 I think this thread shows how so called conservatives react to talking points every bit as much as they blame liberals for,  much like the expected 15 point post conventyion bounce for Kerry, those expectations source from a low level Bush campaign offical. It has become monkey see, monkey do.

  All the more reason why I will wash my hands of the GOP untill the neo-cons are ejected.

The average convention bounce for both incumbent and challenger is 6 points.

http://www.gallup.com/content/login.aspx?ci=2704
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,879


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2004, 05:22:03 AM »

This is hilarious. These are the people STILL talking about WMDs, even though France, Russia, the UN, and Clinton all said the same thing? We know Hussein had WMD programs, including an active nuclear program, but he was 'no threat.' Some people are still trying to say Iraq had no ties to terrorists!

When facts are the enemy's talking points, I guess that says something about your side of the argument.

They won't listen. Believe me. Every other nation around the world has terrorist cells but somehow Iraq is exempt. Roll Eyes

So we are supposed to invade every country that has terrorists in it.  I think the lie that Cheney was trying to sell the American people was not that their were or were not terrorists in Iraq but that the Iraqui government was coordinating with Al Queda and Usama Bin Laden and was linked to the 9/11 bombings.  That is what the lie was.

But lets break away from that StatesRights.  I have a question for you; Do you think that their are more or less terrorists in the world now as opposed to right before 9/11.

Time to invade ourselves. Sad
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