Posted this in the Clawson thread. I met him a few months ago when he was thinking about running in a district on the east coast. Didn't strike me as an angry guy.
Speaking of FL-18, the district he previously considered, who do you think wins next week's crowded primary? My guess is Rebecca Negron, who has picked up endorsements from National Right to Life, Jeff Atwater, and others. She also seems to be the strongest general election candidate for the seat. Also, is Francis Rooney in FL-19 related to Tom Rooney from FL-17?
It'll either be Negron or Mast. Negron is the most likely winner. First of all, I interned for her consultant, who I won't name here (you can PM me if you want), a highly respected consultant who has a lot of success in state/local races (the whole Jeb thing didn't pan out, but that was fate) and an abundance of strong ties that have benefited Negron. The following is anecdotal of course, but I also spent a good bit of time in FL-18 over the summer and attended a lot of local GOP events. Negron isn't the favorite of the Tea Party wing, yet she is also viewed as acceptable and electable, so that combined with her establishment support should result in her winning the primary and the general itself.
Brian Mast is her only real threat from what I can tell. He has been promoted all over the various Tea Party Facebook pages in the area and has a lot of prominent support. He's competing for votes with Noelle Nikpour, who filed for the race and has since coasted on her meager amount of name recognition as a Fox personality. Nikpour has no infrastructure what so ever out there.
I'd probably hedge my bet on the following result. I won't guess the percentages.
1. Negron
2. Mast
3. Freeman
4. Domino
5. Kozell
6. Nikpour
Domino has a lot of name recognition and money, but he also is viewed as extremely past his prime. To quote one of my mentors from the area, "Carl has to take his ball and just go home. It's over." I like Domino, actually. I once had lunch with him at a GOP function when I was like 13 and he was very, very agreeable as a person but also completely bland as a candidate. His time has come and gone.
Freeman is the wildcard, as he has poured a lot of his own money into the race and I saw a lot of ads for him when I was back home (I am from the neighboring FL-22). But I think the district and the Treasure Coast/Palm Beach County area is more inclined to a Brian Mast guy with a respected war record and an inspiring life story.