GA-6 Special election discussion thread (user search)
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  GA-6 Special election discussion thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-6 Special election discussion thread  (Read 259018 times)
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,095
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


« on: April 18, 2017, 08:56:52 PM »

So much for the #resistance.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,095
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2017, 12:59:56 PM »

So Spicer now got up an called this an "big loss" for the dems and repeated that "spent 8 million" lie. Quick question why is Trump keeping throwing bombs on stuff like this when by his own admission he needs dems for his infrastructure plan?
They'll look small and stupid if they vote down an infrastructure plan. What does it matter? He holds all the cards right now and you'll have to take them away  one by one before you can stop him on the infrastructure plan. He's gonna give your side just about everything they want because he happens to be basically a Democrat on infrastructure/related funding issues. He'll piss on you all the way to the bank until 2020, which is the next serious opportunity for a reset by Dems.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,095
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2017, 01:07:36 PM »

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.
I've watched hardcore Gingrich/Santorum voters jump to Romney in a heartbeat, usually starting with a caveat like "Mitt's a good guy" and ending with "but Reagan said never attack another Republican."

Uniting behind the nominee is a natural Republican tradition. I was attacked quite angrily on social media by some of these Republican grannies for voting for Gary Johnson in 2012, for example. Even hardcore Trump voters were against him mounting an independent campaign and were prepared to hold their nose again for Jeb if they had too. It really is quite fascinating how strong Reagan's legacy is among Republicans. It is a precedent-setter for future generations, I suspect.

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.


My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.
I'm certainly mistaken, but I for some reason remember that being exactly the case when Gingrich first ran. I might be confusing the maps though.
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