Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[ATFFL]

Vorlon,

Will you be throwing in some more of your professional opinions?

[ATFFL]

A Liberal candidate in B.C (Abbotsford I think) has apparently tried to bribe the NDP candidate to drop out of the race

That is the sort of news they really need right now.  Are they actively looking for ways to shoot themselves in the foot now?  They've already unloaded a full clip and seem intent on reloading and putting another few rounds in.

I wonder how far they can fall at this point.  If this type of thing comes out in mor ethan one location, it could really kill the party.

[ATFFL]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

I don't really know why, but BC has come to have an amazing ability to utterly defy and even openly revolt against basically any trends emerging in the rest of Canada.  I'm almost 100% sure that if the Conservatives got, say, a 200-seat majority, BC would give every last seat to the Liberals.

You are obviously an idiot.  If the Conservaties had a 200 seat majority, BC would split between the Marxist-Leninst party, the Western Block Party, and the Bloc.

[ATFFL]

Is there any chance of party jumping to push the Conservatives to a majority if they are close?

[ATFFL]

New SC poll...

Con 42, Lib 24, NDP 17, BQ 12

Oh my.  This could be quite bloody.

As always though, these are just polls with a margin of error and a possible systemic bias.  It could be that there are a lot of people who will vote Liberal and are hiding it right now.

I can't check right now, but do these members put the Bloc in as the official opposition?

[ATFFL]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Or, if EVERYTHING goes our way - can you say official opposition?

That is a ton to ask for.  I mean, you would need the libs to finish collapsing and have the NDP pick up their ridings.  Otherwise you might have trouble beating the Bloc for official opposition. 

Though, if you do end up over the Libs and the Cons get a majority government, the next election could see the two parties fight it out to be the official left wing pary of Canada.

[ATFFL]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Or, if EVERYTHING goes our way - can you say official opposition?

That is a ton to ask for.  I mean, you would need the libs to finish collapsing and have the NDP pick up their ridings.  Otherwise you might have trouble beating the Bloc for official opposition. 

Though, if you do end up over the Libs and the Cons get a majority government, the next election could see the two parties fight it out to be the official left wing pary of Canada.

Of course, the result I would pay most to see is BQ 75, Tories 74, Grits 74, NDP 74, other 11.

I'll chip in to pay for that!

[ATFFL]

The Tories could have a decent amount of time in charge, 18-24 months or more, if things fall out that no one will want to have a quick election.  The Blac may not want one if it looks likely that the Libs will recover and regain some seats in Quebec.  This alone would be enough to keep the Cons in power.

The NDP may want to keep the status quo if they gain a lot of seats and think that the next election will see people return to the Libs to get the Cons out of power.

The Liberals may want to keep the Cons in power in the hopes that things fall apart and the country will turn back to them.  If things go the same or better, people may be less afraid of taking power from them in the future.

Harper's best bet is to play the other 3 against each other and offer just enough bones to keep them all happy enough for now. 

Of course, things could fall apart quickly.

[ATFFL]

The SES poll was amazing! I can't remember the last time I saw a poll with such precision and accuracy.

Final SES Numbers

CPC 36.4%
Lib 30.1%
NDP 17.4%
BQ 10.6%

Election Night Results

CPC 36.2%
Lib 30.2%
NDP 17.5%
BQ 10.5%

That is scary.  Just hope they do not go all Zogby on us and think their numbers create reality.

I agree that we will not see an election in the next 6 months.  Probably not until next year, at the earliest.  The Bloc may be more willing to cooperate since they do not want to risk the loss of more seats and lack the position to push for another referendum, something the Cons are unlikely to grant.  They may want to play nice with the CPC and try and woo the majority parties newly minted supporters.  The Bloc will need to get them back in the future.  The best way to grab them might be to play nice with the Cons and show their supporters they can vote Bloc and still support the Conservatives.  This might be too long term thinking for them, though.

The big question for the next few months: How ugly does the Lib leadership election get?