The Weariness of a Frontrunner

[NHI]

After the September 22nd Debate in Florida, Rick Perry's campaign effectively ended, unofficially. With the third straight poor debate performance many began to look past Perry in favor of other candidates.

Romney regained his lead in the polls with Perry falling to a second and in some instances being overtaken by Huntsman. However October 1st, 2011 the GOP field got a massive shakeup. To a large crowd gathered in Florida Gov. Chris Christie shocked the country by announcing his intention to run for President in 2012!

"Believe me, I wasn't planning on running for president. I didn't want to, but I see that this country is hurting, we need real leadership and by getting that leadership we need someone who can defeat Pres. Obama and looking at the likes of Romney, Perry and Bachmann and all of the other characters I don't think anyone of them is capable of taking on the president and winning. So it is with great reluctance, but with a desire to see this country revive and prosper,  I declare to you the people of New Jersey and the people of America, I am running for President of the United States."

Christie Jumps In!

[NHI]

It seemed with Chris Christie's entrance into the race, Perry was effectively sidelined, and it was a two man race between Romney and Christie.

Polling:
Romney: 26%
Christie: 25%

Krauthammer: This is a race between Christie and Romney now. There has been this clash to find the alternative to Romney. Perry couldn't do it. Bachmann couldn't do it. Christie and Romney are both from the northeast, but Christie has come out swinging and I think Romney will find it a bit more difficult to go up against Christie. He's not a Perry and his attacks will be harder to deflect.

Wallace: I think there has been many alternatives to Romney in this race. It'll be interesting to see how Christie does. He is doing well, only behind one point.

Krauthammer: At this point Perry or Bachmann could win Iowa and it won't make any difference. New Hampshire is the state to watch, Romney has kept a lead, but with Christie now in the race we'll have to wait and see. The question though will be who is the most electable. The last poll I saw had Romney beating Obama, with Christie trailing him.

Polling: Obama vs. Romney
Romney 48%
Obama 44%

Obama vs. Christie
Obama 49%
Christie 43%

Morris: Iowa seems to be up in the air right now. You have Romney holding a narrow lead, but Christie is right behind him with Herman Cain coming in a close third.

O'Reilly: I think the nomination is still Romney's, but it's only October, so we shall see. Thank you Dick Morris...

Iowa:
Romney: 26%
Christie: 21%
Cain:      17%

Christie on the stump in New Hampshire, the same day as Mitt Romney and Cain visit the state.

"We've got to get this country working again, otherwise we're in the dump and that's it. I'm going to put the experience that I have to work in Washington. I'm tired of the politicians, I'm tired of the soundbites. It's time for an honest conversation in America, the America people are ready for it. Social Security is a ponzi scheme, yes, but how are we going to fix it, Gov. Perry, or Gov. Romney, or Rep. Bachmann? Let's put everything on the table. Means testing, raising the retirement age, or putting the money into your hands so you can invest it, because maybe you know how to deal with it better than the government can."

[NHI]

The first debate to include Chris Christie was one of the most memorable. With Christie dominating much of the questions, the pundits declared him the winner, and the true challenger to Mitt Romney.

"Governor, I cannot make heads or tails out your health care plan. You want to get rid of Obamacare, but yet you supported a mandate in your state; the mandate is the heart of Obamacare.

"Now Governor as you know states are different. What works for one is certainly not going to work in another."

"Then do you support what you did in Massachusetts in this campaign governor?"

"I'm not running for governor of Massachusetts."

"No, you're running for president, and we need to know where you stand when it comes to health care mandates and the repeal of Obamacare."

center][/center]
"I have said many times over that if I am elected President I will repeal Obamacare, I'm not going to back down from that. As for the mandate in Massachusetts, that was the solution we came up with, it was a state solution to a state problem."

Who do you want to be the Republican Nominee? (Tea Party Republicans)
Christie: 56%
Romney: 34%

Who do you want to be the Republican Nominee? (Standard Republicans)
Christie: 43%
Romney: 36%

Who do you want to be the Republican Nominee? (Independents)
Romney: 52%
Christie: 38%

The only concerns that plagued Republicans was Christie's more aggressive nature, and many felt that it could become his achilles heel were he to win the nomination. When pressed on it, he dismissed it saying, "The American people want honesty and they want leaders who will tell it to them how it is, not how it isn't."

Romney vs. Obama:
Romney 47%
Obama 44%

Christie vs. Obama:
Christie 45%
Obama 44%

[NHI]

IOWA

The Iowa Caucuses were of great focus, with the media figuring it would Christie polling out a narrow win, with Romney coming in a close second. However in a primary season such as the 2012 one, what was expected to be normal and expected was hardly so.

Herman Cain wins Iowa!

Cain managed to come up from behind and triumph over both Christie and Romney. Christie came in a distant second, with Romney a far off third. The victory shook up the race dramatically and had a major impact as the campaign shifted to New Hampshire.

"This win is only the beginning. America is finally starting to wake up and tonight we can say it began in Iowa!"

Results:
Cain: 45.5%
Christie: 16.3%
Romney: 12.2%
Perry: 11.9%
Bachmann: 6.3%
Huntsman: 2.0%
Santorum: 2.0%
Gingrich: 1.8%

Following Iowa Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum dropped out of the race, while Rick Perry who came in fourth behind Romney lagged onto the Granite State. Huntsman and Gingrich threw their support behind Romney, while Bachmann and Santorum remained neutral, saying that they would support the eventual nominee.

I think people underestimate Herman Cain. With such a split between Romney and Christie, because essentially they are fighting over the same voters, Cain could come up and sweep away with the nomination. Perry's campaign is finished, Bachmann was finished a long time ago. The race is now between these three. Romney will probably narrowly take New Hampshire, but Christie could take it, and if he does Romney's done.
However if Romney stays on course and does win then it's going to be the battle for South Carolina, and if Cain can do well there then he's in a good position for Florida."

New Hampshire

Despite a strong effort by Christie, Romney managed to pull out a win in the Granite State, but by a much closer margin.

Romney on the night of the New Hampshire primary, having scored a victory of 34% to Christie's 32%.

Following New Hampshire Perry who placed fourth dropped out and threw his support around Chris Christie, saying, "He is the one who can draw the contrast with Obama. He can win."

South Carolina Polling:
Cain: 33%
Christie: 32%
Romney: 28%

Polling:
Obama vs. Romney:
Romney 45%
Obama 44%

Obama vs. Christie:
Christie 46%
Obama 43%

Obama vs. Cain:
Obama 45%
Cain 40%

[NHI]

I originally had a part that focused on Ron Paul after Iowa, it involved him suspending his bid for the nomination, but I decided leave it out. Just note that Ron Paul has ended his bid for the nomination at this point in the timeline. The focus is on: Romney, Cain, and Christie.

[NHI]

Florida

The South Carolina Primary produced another victory for Herman Cain, but closer than expected. However, much of the media declared Romney the real winner of the primary, due to his strong third place finish, when originally he was expected to have a distant third finish.

Christie in South Carolina, after coming in a strong second to Cain.

South Carolina:
Cain: 33.1%
Christie: 32.6%
Romney: 31.9%

The day also saw primaries in Arizona and Michigan, both of which were won solidly by Romney, leaving Christie a distant second in both cases. Now, despite Cain's second win, Romney and Christie were still the frontrunners for the nomination and as they headed into Florida, Romney hoped to stop Christie, there, who seemed to be putting all his eggs in that basket.

"It's funny, the man has won zero states and yet is acting like the nominee? We'll in American no one is heir to anything, especially in American Politics."

Romney
Cain

Florida

Despite a strong effort, Christie would loose another key state to Mitt Romney, Christie reached a point in the campaign where he wondered if it was worth it anymore.
He managed to carry his state of New Jersey during a trio of caucuses, but Romney and Cain collected the other two.

Christie decided to put all his stock in Super Tuesday. By now he was polling either evenly with Romney or trailed narrowly. Many pundits speculated that with the money still coming in many conservatives were not warming to the nomination of Mitt Romney.

"He's got a firewall and if he can damage Romney enough he'll be able to carry on."

Super Tuesday

The results of Super Tuesday favored Mitt Romney who won the majority of the states, only losing Vermont, Oklahoma,  Texas and Virginia to Christie. The endorsement of Bob McDonnell sealed the deal for Christie in Virginia, but Romney pulled very close.

Cain's campaign ended on Super Tuesday and he threw his support behind Romney, calling him, "The Next President of these United States!"

Romney
Cain
Christie

Christie still remained in the race and challenged Romney to the March 13th primary and caucuses.

Lucky 13

Christie attacked Romney continuously in the days leading up the primaries, criticizing him on Romneycare and his flip flops over the years. Romney rebutted against Christie and labeled him as a political opportunist. Nevertheless Christie managed to steal some states away from Romney.

Christie took Mississippi and Alabama, while Romney took Hawaii. The two remained locked in the polls and Christie proclaimed the Illinois primary would decide the nomination. With a hefty lead over Romney, the campaign downplayed expectations, saying that they will fight until there is a clear nominee.

By a clear upset, Romney managed to beat Christie in Illinois, sending his campaign into panic mode.

Illinois:
Romney: 50.2%
Christie: 47.7%

The recurring theme from voters was, "Romney is the most electable." Following the endorsement of Bobby Jindal Romney managed to win the Louisiana primary and the following week took Maryland and the District of Columbia.

Christie still remained in the race, despite the momentum that was clearly building on Romney's side. With their campaign cash dwindling Christie focused on winning the series of states on April 24th that included New York and Pennsylvania.

The other primaries included Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island, all of which went to Romney, along with Pennsylvania, with New York narrowly going for Christie.

New York:
Christie: 49.5%
Romney: 48.8%

Christie claimed victory on election night, and a few weeks later took Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina  and Indiana all from Romney. Yet a week later Romney bounced back with wins in Oregon and Nebraska.

Christie and Romney would split the results on May 22nd, with Romney taking Kentucky and Christie Arkansas. The series of comebacks for Christie was labeled the Christie Momentum.

The June 5th Primaries seemed to be the tie breaker with California being the most fought over state. Most polls had Christie with a narrow lead over Romney, but the former governor was determined to beat him.

On June 5th, Romney carried Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, while California's results hung in the balance. Most pundits declared that if Romney carried the state the nomination was his, and there was already discussion about a Romney/Christie ticket. Finally at 3:40 AM California was called for Mitt Romney and effectively he became the presumptive nominee.

California:
Romney: 50.0%
Christie: 49.1%

Christie conceded defeat and the speculation began about his possibility as Vice-President.

[NHI]

Projected: Romney vs. Obama Map.

Romney 215
Obama 196

Tossups

OH:
Romney 48%
Obama 48%

PA:
Obama49%
Romney 48%

VA:
Romney 49%
Obama 48%

NV:
Romney 47%
Obama 47%

NM:
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

WI:
Obama 48%
Romney 47%

MI:
Romney 48%
Obama 48%

AZ:
Romney 50%
Obama 47%

NC:
Romney 49%
Obama 46%

Romney vs. Obama:
Romney 48%
Obama 47%

[NHI]

The Ticket?

Christie offered his full endorsement of Mitt Romney for President of The United States, but ruled himself out as a Vice Presidential pick. Romney stated a pick would be announced by the end of June.

The list of possible candidates continued to grow by the day. With the tea party faction still weary of Romney, he was encouraged to select someone that would balance the ticket and calm the nerves of the tea party.

The Choice

What was seen as inevitable and as the perfect fit, Mitt Romney selected Marco Rubio as his running mate. The pick was received with overwhelming praise!

The Dream Team

Romney vs. Obama:
Romney 49%
Obama 45%

The eventual Republican Convention was a success, with Rubio's speech being one of the highlights and Romney hitting it out of the park on the final night.

Romney: He one of the worst President in the history of this country, and has presided not over economic and American progression, but economic and American decline....I will go to work on Day one and begin the process to repeal and replace Obamacare. That is my priority, for it will destroy jobs and put this country deeper and deeper into the hands of nation's like China.... America needs to be fiscally sound, and strong, we will be that great country again my friends. For as Ronald Reagan constantly said to us, "America's best days still lie ahead." He believed in this country and brought it back. I believe in this country and we will bring her back. Believe again America, it is time..."

The Romney/Rubio came out of the convention with a staggering lead over Obama/Biden. The unemployment rate stood at 8.9% following the convention and American confidence was still at record lows. Romney hoped to capitalize on this.

267
196

[NHI]

Obama v. Romney
The first presidential debate took place in Missouri against the two contenders. By this point in the election cycle Romney and Obama were pretty much even in the polls, with some giving Romney a two point lead over the president.

The first question of the night was over the health care bill, that was still being debated in the Supreme Court.

Obama: I do believe the law will be upheld, because it is constitutional. It falls in line with the Commerce Clause, and aside from that look at Gov. Romney's health care law in Massachusetts. Frankly, that is the law which gave us the inspiration for what the GOP has dubbed Obamacare.

Romney: Now hold on Mr. President. There are a myriad of differences between my health care law and yours. Your's Mr. President is 2,074 pages, mine was 70 pages. Now if that isn't one major difference I don't know what is. Second, Mr. President if you liked my idea in Massachusetts, why didn't you give me a call? And, if you called I would have told you that applying what we did in our state on a national level would not work.

The conclusion of the debate was seen to have favored Romney who managed to avoid falling into Obama's attacks. He remained focused on his experience in the economy and how he would turn America around.

Obama vs. Romney:
Romney: 49%
Obama: 47%

In a dramatic and surprise result, the Supreme Court ruled the Mandate portion of the Health Care Law unconstitutional. The White House quickly fired back, stating that the decision was completely unfounded and they were extremely disappointed.

"Clearly this was a shock, but we're of the mindset that there has been so much negativity surrounding the law, in part due to the republicans and organizations involved in slandering it as a bad piece of law."

The Next President?

[NHI]

Election Night:

Obama:
Romney:

Good evening America and welcome to MSNBC Election Night Coverage. I'm Chris Matthews in New York along with Rachel Maddow, Lawrence O'Donnell and Andrea Mitchell at the election desk. Beginning tonight, it has all come down to this: Pres. Obama vs. the Republican challenger Mitt Romney and his running mate Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.

Maddow: MSNBC is ready to make it's first projection tonight. Gov. Mitt Romney will carry the state of Kentucky and Pres. Obama will carry Vermont. Both states as expected have gone for their prospective candidates.

59.9%-39.4%

60.0%-39.3%

Romney: 8
Obama: 3

[NHI]

Matthews: So as we look at the map going into tonight what should we be looking for?

Mitchell: Ohio is a bell weather state and if Romney can do well there then he should be looking for a victory tonight.

O'Donnell:The President is the underdog in this campaign and no one should dispute that fact. The President is running against a powerful candidate, he may not be the most appealing to every conservatives, but he is bringing in the independents.

Maddow: We need to interject, because MSNBC is calling South Carolina for Gov. Romney.

59.4%-40.0%

Matthews: Well, the old GOP strong holds are falling into line, but I want to see what goes on in the important states.

Maddow: MSNBC is also calling Indiana for Mr. Romney.

55.4%-44.2%

Matthews Well it is Romney with an early lead, but I don't know if this say anything.

Mitchell Indiana is the most important thus far. It was expected to go for Romney, but he is carrying the state by a somewhat decisive margin, so we will see how the rest of the night goes.
 

Romney 28
Obama 3

7:50
Maddow We are now turning to Tim Pawlenty, Governor thank you for joining us tonight.

Pawlenty Thanks Rachel, glad to be here on this night.

Maddow: Well Governor Romney is doing well tonight. He has already taken West Virginia and Georgia and looks poised to take Ohio based on the data we received, what are your thoughts as the night progresses?

Pawlenty: I think Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States and on the simple but firm premise that Barack Obama has failed. He failed to lead this country, our economy is in the toilet, I mean you saw the latest unemployment figures for this month. It is a disgrace to this country and that is what this country is voting him out.

Maddow: Governor Pawlenty it is eight o'clock and we have some projections to make, but if you would stand by we'd love to get your response... MSNBC is now projecting in the presidential race the following states for Mr. Obama: Maine, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maine, New Jersey and the District of Columbia.

For Governor Romney we project: Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma and New Hampshire.

Romney 96
Obama 68

Matthews: Well there you have it. Romney still leading and has taken the old bell weather of New Hampshire, but I'm more surprised with Connecticut. New Hampshire has more moderate, business centric conservatives, but Connecticut is too close to call, your thoughts, Lawrence?

O'Donnell: I don't think Romney will end up taking the state, but this does show how close this election is and that Pres. Obama is in trouble if he can't keep a solidly democratic state.

Maddow: Sorry to intercut gentlemen, but MSNBC is now calling the state of Florida for Governor Mitt Romney.

52.4%-45.7%

Romney 125
Obama 68

Mitchell: Wow, that one's going to be tough to overcome.

Matthews: At this point he's got to keep Pennsylvania and North Carolina from slipping into the Romney column. Where does the polls stand with them, let's turn now to Chuck Todd.

Todd: Chris, looking at it right now. Romney is up in Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Three very important states. Virginia is leading Obama but it is narrow. Take a look at the map and it is not pretty for the president.

OHIO:

51.9%-45.7%

NORTH CAROLINA:

50.9%-46.8%

PENNSYLVANIA:

50.6%-47.7%

VIRGINIA:

49.3%-49.7%

Matthews: Chuck, going to have to cut you off as MSNBC is now calling Ohio for President Obama, excuse me Governor Mitt Romney.

Romney 143
Obama    68

O'Donnell: At this point Romney's lead seems almost insurmountable. He's up by almost one hundred delegates and has snatched away three of the prized states: New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida.

Maddow: Returning back to Governor Pawlenty, your thoughts on this projection?

Pawlenty: Two words: President-elect.

Maddow: Well said Governor, thank you for joining us.

9:00 Map Projection:

Romney227
Obama 118

[NHI]

Maddow: Welcome back and MSNBC can now project a win for Mitt Romney. We are able to project that President Obama, excuse me, Governor Mitt Romney will win Virginia.
 

50.6%47.9%

Matthews: Certainly that has got to be a great one for them to carry, but is it enough? Let's now turn to Joe Scarborough for analysis.

Scarborough: Virginia is a state that has been a state that's been leaning Obama the whole race and he lost it, and it's not even that close. Most polls indicated Obama would at least get fifty percent and Romney takes almost 51 percent.

Tim Pawlenty was on here tonight and said Romney will win, do you agree?
I think it's rather difficult Chris. He needs to get Michigan, Wisconsin and then sweep the north west, and I just don't see that happening. Romney is too far ahead.

Maddow: And as we intercut again, MSNBC is calling the state of Colorado for Governor Romney.

Romney: 255
Obama: 118

Scarborough: That's it.

Polling:
PA:
Romney: 51.4%
Obama: 47.5%

MI:
Romney: 50.9%
Obama: 48.6%

WI:
Romney: 50.0%
Obama: 49.3%

NM:
Romney: 49.9%
Obama: 48.7%

AZ:
Romney: 52.9%
Obama: 45.8%

Maddow: MSNBC is also calling Arizona for Governor Romney at this time as well. Governor Romney nows holds 266 delegates to Pres. Obama's 118.

O'Donnell: It will now come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan. Which one will put him over.

Matthews: Are we looking at a realignment Andrea?

Mitchell: I don't know Chris. We thought that in 2008, but then the Tea Party Movement changed that course in 2010, and now it's looking that way in 2012. I think we are seeing the fourth change election in the last six years. In 2006 and 2008 the Democrats retook control of Washington, and 2010 the Republican came back and 2012 looks to be the same. The Republican also look poised to take control of the senate.

Matthews: Is this an embrace of Conservatism or will the republicans be thrown out in 2014 as well?

Scarborough: Chris, Chris. If the Republicans win big tonight I think it is a result of the Democrats and President Obama. 2010 was the start and this is the finish. If Romney and the Republicans are able to get the economy back on the right track and unemployment down then we're looking at a realignment not seen since Ronald Reagan.

O'Donnell: Joe, can Mitt Romney break 400 tonight?

Scarborough: You know Lawrence, a month ago I would have said no, even yesterday I would have said no, but looking at the results coming in I think it is a real possibility. If he does in fact break 400, then we will be feeling the effects of this election at least for the next decade.

Maddow: Sorry to interrupt this discussion boys, but I would not do this if it wasn't important. MSNBC is ready to make it's projection for the presidency. Based on a win in Pennsylvania Governor Mitt Romney will be the 45th President of the United States of America.
 

Willard Mitt Romney: 45th President of the United States

Romney: 286
Obama: 118

Matthews: And there you have it, wow. It came down to the economy and Romney beat him on it.

Maddow: Adding to the projection Governor Romney will also carry the state of New Mexico and Michigan, which will put him well over the needed number to be elected President.

Scarborough: With unemployment where it is, and the state of the country where it is I am not surprised by tonight. I think this is a realignment. Many of us in the media predicted a close, down to the wire race. It is 9:45 and we're calling the presidency.

Matthews: Romney ran a smart campaign, he hammered the president on the economy and the state of American confidence and that's why he is where is tonight. He did what Reagan did, though not as eloquently to Jimmy Carter. He painted him as the bearer of bad news and himself as the responsible one, a leader, and the president couldn't break that image.

Maddow: We have now learned that Pres. Obama has called Governor Romney and the president will be speaking at ten o'clock eastern standard time.

Mitchell: And hour before the polls close in the west, states like California, Oregon and Washington.

10:00

...We've come to the end of a long race America, the end of our journey and our place in the American story, but like many generations before us we know that more still lies ahead, America's best days still lie ahead. I thank you for your support, and I thank my family. I could not be here without you. Now may God Bless you, May God Bless President-Elect Romney and his family and may God Bless The United States of America.

Romney: 325
Obama: 118

11:00
Obama wins California, Hawaii. Oregon, Washington too close to call...

Mitt and Ann Romney waving to supporters in New Hampshire.

...Today we begin the next chapter in America. And in this chapter no more will unemployment weaken us, or will towering deficits cloud our horizons. America's best days still lie ahead, for one thing is always certain: We believe in America and we always will...

Final Results:

Romney: 362 (54.0%)
Obama: 177 (45.6%)

President Mitt Romney: 2013-

[NHI]

Romney's coattails were long enough to make major successes for the GOP.

Senatorial Map:

Gubernatorial Map:

The GOP also retained control of the House.

[NHI]

Romney Cabinet:
Vice President: Marco Rubio
Sec. of State: Jon Huntsman
Sec. of Treasury: Mitch Daniels
Sec. of Defense: David Patreaus
Attorney General: Rudy Giuliani
Sec. of Interior: Nikki Haley
Sec. of Agriculture: Evan Bayh
Sec. of Commerce: Herman Cain
Sec. of Labor: Kerry Healy
Sec. of Health and Human Services: Newt Gingrich
Sec. of Housing and Urban Development: Michele Bachman
Sec. of Transportation: Ray LaHood
Sec. of Energy: Samuel Bodman
Sec. of Education: Jeb Bush
Sec. of Veterans Affairs: Carol Shea Porter
Sec. of Homeland Security: Kim Holmes