2008 Presidential Election: Game Thread

[NHI]

January 30-Feburay 5, 2008

The race for the Democratic Nomination is heating up, as the candidates venture into the Sunshine State for the all-important Florida primary. At this point all three remaining candidates have won a primary, and Florida is seen as the make or break for the candidates, in terms of determining credibility into Super Tuesday. Evan Bayh held a narrow lead over Lincoln and Clinton, but both have been pouring all their resources and efforts into the state.

Ahead of the primary there was some controversy over a Clinton Campaign ad that highlighted both Clinton and Lincoln and the historic nature of their candidacies. White House Press Secretary David Muir commented on the ad, saying 'it made no sense' and that it was likely to help Bayh. The Clinton campaign rebutted Muir's comment.

Florida Primary: 1% Reported (185 Primary Delegates)

Evan Bayh: 44.9%

Hillary Clinton: 28.0%
Blanche Lincoln: 26.1%

Florida Primary: 15% Reported

Evan Bayh: 41.1%
Hillary Clinton: 29.5%
Blanche Lincoln: 28.4%

Florida Primary: 29% Reported

Evan Bayh: 40.0%

Blanche Lincoln: 30.0%
Hillary Clinton: 29.1%

Florida Primary: 44% Reported

Evan Bayh: 38.8%
Blanche Lincoln: 31.5%
Hillary Clinton: 28.9%

PROJECTION: √ Hillary Clinton Projected to Finish 3rd in FL Primary

Florida Primary: 56% Reported

Evan Bayh: 38.6%

Blanche Lincoln: 32.0%

Hillary Clinton: 28.6%

Florida Primary: 66% Reported

Evan Bayh: 38.2%

Blanche Lincoln: 32.4%
Hillary Clinton: 28.0%

Florida Primary: 73% Reported

Evan Bayh: 37.7%

Blanche Lincoln: 32.9%

Hillary Clinton: 27.7%

PROJECTION: √ Evan Bayh Wins FL Primary

Florida Primary: 100% Reported

√ Evan Bayh: 37.5% (81)

Blanche Lincoln: 33.5% (70)
Hillary Clinton: 27.9% (34)

Delegate Count: Democrats

Evan Bayh: 145

Blanche Lincoln: 132 (*152 w/ Dean's Delegates)

Hillary Clinton: 90

Howard Dean: 20

Super Tuesday Polls:

Alabama: Lincoln +13
Lincoln: 41%
Evan Bayh: 28%
Bayh: 26%

Alaska: Tied
Clinton: 33%
Bayh: 33%
Lincoln: 30%

American Samoa: Clinton+5
Clinton: 36%
Bayh: 31%
Lincoln: 30%

Arizona: Bayh +2
Bayh: 35%
Lincoln: 33%
Clinton: 30%

Arkansas: Lincoln+18
Lincoln: 49%
Clinton: 31%
Bayh:    16%

California: Tied
Clinton: 34%
Bayh: 34%
Lincoln: 29%

Colorado: Bayh+5
Bayh: 37%
Clinton: 32%
Lincoln: 31%

Connecticut: Clinton+4
Clinton: 38%
Bayh: 34%
Lincoln: 25%

Delaware: Bayh+7
Bayh: 37%
Lincoln: 30%
Clinton:: 29%

Georgia: Lincoln+8
Lincoln: 38%
Clinton: 30%
Bayh: 28%

Idaho: Clinton+2
Clinton: 40%
Bayh:   38%
Lincoln: 19%

Illinois: Bayh+1
Bayh 33%
Clinton:   32%
Lincoln: 31%

Indiana: Bayh+37
Bayh: 68%
Clinton: 16%
Lincoln: 13%

Massachusetts: Clinton+2
Clinton: 35%
Bayh:   33%
Lincoln: 29%

Minnesota: Bayh +3
Bayh: 37%
Lincoln: 34%
Clinton: 25%

Missouri: Lincoln+6
Lincoln: 37%
Bayh: 31%
Clinton: 27%

New Jersey: Clinton+20
Clinton: 49%
Bayh:   29%
Lincoln: 19%

New Mexico: Bayh+4
Bayh: 33%
Lincoln: 29%
Clinton: 28%

New York: Clinton+44
Clinton: 64%
Bayh:   20%
Lincoln: 13%

North Dakota: Lincoln+6
Lincoln: 38%
Bayh: 32%
Clinton: 22%

Oklahoma: Lincoln+12
Lincoln: 40%
Clinton: 28%
Bayh: 26%

Tennessee: Lincon+7
Lincoln: 37%
Clinton: 30%
Bayh: 26%

Utah: Bayh+5
Bayh: 37%
Clinton: 32%
Lincoln: 26%

This Next Round will Last Until Monday at 11:59pm EST
Also for Super Tuesday it will be Winner Takes All for Delegate Allocation.

[NHI]

Clinton Suspends Campaign -- Endorses Blanche Lincoln

The race for the Democratic Nomination is down to Evan Bayh and Blanche Lincoln. Hillary Clinton ended her bid and endorsed Lincoln after the New York Senator placed third in Florida. Bayh, who won he Florida Primary has been gaining momentum in recent weeks and with a head-to-head matchup the race should get very interesting. Pundits believe Bayh will need to offer a strong contrast with Lincoln and define his candidacy and why he is the best bet for the Democrats in defeating President Giuliani.

Lincoln has seen her stock rise recently and now being the only female candidate in the race there will be some strong efforts to nominate her; the trick for her will be winning over the Democratic base.

Giuliani: 49%

Bayh: 47%

Giuliani: 49%

Lincoln: 46%

[NHI]

Democratic Nomination Poll: January 30, 2008 (Bayh +6

Evan Bayh: 44%
Blanche Lincoln: 38%
Undecided: 18%

Super Tuesday Polls:

Alabama: Lincoln +13
Lincoln: 50%
Evan Bayh: 37%

Alaska: Lincoln +1
Lincoln: 43%
Bayh:    42%

American Samoa: Bayh +3
Bayh: 41%
Lincoln: 38%

Arizona: Bayh +1
Bayh: 44%
Lincoln: 43%

Arkansas: Lincoln+34
Lincoln: 64%
Bayh:    30%

California: Bayh+4
Bayh: 46%
Lincoln: 42%

Colorado: Bayh+1
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 46%

Connecticut: Bayh+2
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 45%

Delaware: Bayh+7
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 40%

Georgia: Lincoln+9
Lincoln: 49%
Bayh: 40%

Idaho: Lincoln+1
Lincoln: 46%
Bayh:  45%

Illinois: Bayh +2
Bayh: 46%
Lincoln: 44%

Indiana: Bayh+46
Bayh: 69%
Lincoln: 23%

Massachusetts: Tied
Bayh:   43%
Lincoln: 43%

Minnesota: Bayh +2
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 45%

Missouri: Lincoln+7
Lincoln: 47
Bayh: 40%

New Jersey: Bayh +3
Bayh:   46%
Lincoln: 43%

New Mexico: Bayh+3
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 44%

New York: Tied
Bayh: 45%
Lincoln: 45%

North Dakota: Lincoln+8
Lincoln: 49%
Bayh: 41%

Oklahoma: Lincoln+14
Lincoln: 50%
Bayh: 36%

Tennessee: Lincon+10
Lincoln: 49%
Bayh: 39%

Utah: Bayh+5
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 43%

[NHI]

OOC: I'll echo RNG and ask what are the states in the first Super Tuesday? All of these?

Oh yes, sorry.
All are Super Tuesday I

[NHI]

Gallup Tracking Poll: January 30, 2008

Rudy Giuliani: 44% (+2)

Blanche Lincoln: 42%

Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Jesse Ventura: 2%

Rudy Giuliani: 44% (+1)

Evan Bayh: 43%

Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Jesse Ventura: 2%

Average: R+1.5

Rudy Giuliani: 44.0%

Generic Democrat: 42.5%

Michael Bloomberg: 5.0%
Jesse Ventura: 2.0%

[NHI]

OOC: Is 2/5 the first Super Tuesday?

Yes it is

[NHI]

Gallup Tracking Poll: Democratic Nomination (Bayh +3)

Evan Bayh: 45%

Blanche Lincoln: 42%

[NHI]

I'm really serious about this. I'm feeling well, but my laptop now isn't. I have no options but to get it repaired. Can this be extended until Tuesday, 11:59 AM EST?

Completely understandable, this is a bigger one anyway - so I'll push it to Tuesday at 11:59pm. EST.

Best,
NHI

[NHI]

Blanche or Evan?

When Democratic Primary voters head to the polls on Super Tuesday they are to pick from two candidates: Former Arkansas Senator and 2004 Vice Presidential Candidate Blanche Lincoln or Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Both could be identified as moderates; coming from traditionally Republican states, but currently they working to woo voters in a primary electorate that are more liberal than the one they will have to face come November. However, both seemed to have staked out a reasonable position in the sacred middle, a spot President Rudy Giuliani is currently hanging onto -- and a spot most politicians strive to reach, especially when it comes to running for the highest office in the land.

For Lincoln, the choice in her candidacy is twofold. First, the obvious, by the very nature of her candidacy she would be the first woman to lead a major party ticket with a serious shot at winning the White House. (Current polls put her in a close race with Giuliani). The second is not as obvious. Despite, foregoing a reelection run in Arkansas and embarking on an ultimately failed run as Vice President four years earlier Lincoln is a fighter. No one expected her to become a major player in the Democratic primary - let alone a serious contender, but as it is often seen in presidential primary general convention is often diminished or dismissed.

The challenge for Lincoln now is to hold onto her momentum and build on it.

Birch Evan Bayh, II comes from a powerful political family in Indiana. His father Birch Bayh, served as Senator from 1963-1981 and ran for President himself in 1976, but lost to eventual nominee and winner Jimmy Carter. The younger Bayh started his career serving as Secretary of State, before becoming Governor where he served for two terms, winning decisively both times. He would late serve in the Senate -- again winning by landslides. Bayh is considered a moderate Democrat -- or a Bluedog Democrat, as some have called it and is arguably more center-right than even his rival Blanche Lincoln. He tried to woo Democratic Primary and arguably successfully - given he has won both Michigan and Florida - but when self-identified liberals are asked about his candidacy the response is very much the same: "Nice, dependable, but no spark".

Bayh's perceived weakness in the primary may turn out to be his greatest strength in the general. Presenting himself as a competent, one who has both legislative and executive experience. Plus, hailing from a red state like Indiana does not hurt him either. But for Bayh his ability to stress substance and policy may prove useful. In a head to head match up against Giuliani he only trails the President by two points a margin that will likely shrink.

"Evan Bayh can stand on the same stage as President Giuliani and go toe-to-toe with him," Democratic Strategist Donna Brazile said in a comment. "He can check off the Presidential credentials. What remains if he can articulate a Democratic vision for America."

To defeat Giuliani, many pundits believe, will require talking about America's future and the candidate who can best articulate that vision will succeed. "It's very simple and it's often overstated or perhaps understated," said former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. "Elections are always about the future, but in this election most of all since things are going relatively well in the country, it won't be enough to say make this a referendum and reelect me, with a Democratic Party that's been out of power for nearly eight years they are going to really make a push for this one."

On February 5th, millions of votes will be cast and perhaps a clear winner will emerge. Four years ago, Super Tuesday produced a mixed result on the Democratic side, but affirmed Giuliani as the Republican nominee. A protracted primary many argue will likely hurt the Democrat's chances going into the fall. "They need to make their voices heard, but we cannot drag this thing out forever," Brazile said. "There's too much at stake."

Democratic Nomination Poll: PPP February 2008

Evan Bayh: 45%
Blanche Lincoln: 45%

General Election Poll: PPP February 2008

Rudy Giuliani: 48% (+2)

Evan Bayh: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (+3)

Blanche Lincoln: 46%

Four-way Race: PPP February 2008

Rudy Giuliani: 45%

Evan Bayh: 43%

Michael Bloomberg: 4%
Jesse Ventura: 2%

Rudy Giuliani: 44%

Blanche Lincoln: 42%

Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Jesse Ventura: 2%

[NHI]

Super Tuesday Polls: PPP February 1, 2008

Alabama: Lincoln +12
Lincoln: 51%
Evan Bayh: 39%

Alaska: Lincoln +1
Lincoln: 47%
Bayh:    46%

American Samoa: Bayh +3
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 44%

Arizona: Tied
Bayh: 46%
Lincoln: 46%

Arkansas: Lincoln+36
Lincoln: 66%
Bayh:    30%

California: Bayh+3
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 44%

Colorado: Tied
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 47%

Connecticut: Bayh+3
Bayh: 50%
Lincoln: 47%

Delaware: Bayh+8
Bayh: 50%
Lincoln: 42%

Georgia: Lincoln+10
Lincoln: 50%
Bayh: 40%

Idaho: Lincoln+3
Lincoln: 50%
Bayh:  47%

Illinois: Bayh +2
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 45%

Indiana: Bayh+49
Bayh: 73%
Lincoln: 24%

Massachusetts: Lincoln+1
Lincoln: 48%
Bayh:   47%

Minnesota: Bayh +2
Bayh: 48%
Lincoln: 46%

Missouri: Lincoln+6
Lincoln: 48%
Bayh: 42%

New Jersey: Bayh +2
Bayh:   48%
Lincoln: 46%

New Mexico: Bayh+2
Bayh: 46%
Lincoln: 44%

New York: Tied
Lincoln: 46%
Bayh:   46%

North Dakota: Lincoln+8
Lincoln: 50%
Bayh: 42%

Oklahoma: Lincoln+17
Lincoln: 53%
Bayh: 36%

Tennessee: Lincon+10
Lincoln: 51%
Bayh: 41%

Utah: Bayh+3
Bayh: 47%
Lincoln: 44%

[NHI]

Battleground States: Super Tuesday

Alaska:


PPP: Lincoln: 47% Bayh: 46%

Gallup: Lincoln: 48% Bayh: 47%

NBC/WSJ: Lincoln: 47% Bayh: 46%


Arizona:

PPP: Lincoln: 46% Bayh: 46%

Gallup: Lincoln: 47% Bayh: 46%

NBC/WSJ: Lincoln: 48% Bayh: 48%


California:

PPP: Bayh: 49% Lincoln: 46%

Gallup: Bayh: 48% Lincoln: 45%

NBC/WSJ:  Bayh: 47% LIncoln: 44%


Colorado:

PPP: Bayh: 47% Lincoln: 47%

Gallup: Bayh: 48% Lincoln: 47%

NBC/WSJ: Lincoln: 49% Bayh: 48%


Illinois:

PPP: Bayh: 47% Lincoln: 45%

Gallup: Bayh: 49% Lincoln: 45%

NBC/WSJ: BayH: 49% Lincoln: 46%


Massachusetts:

PPP: Lincoln: 48% Bayh: 47%

Gallup: Lincoln: 48% Bayh: 48%

NBC/WSJ: Lincoln: 47% Bayh: 47%


Minnesota:

PPP: Bayh: 48% Lincoln: 46%

Gallup: Bayh: 47% Lincoln: 45%

NBC/WSJ: Bayh: 48% Lincoln: 47%


New Jersey:

PPP: Bayh: 48% Lincoln: 46%

Gallup: Bayh: 50% Lincoln: 47%

NBC/WSJ: Bayh: 48% Lincoln: 47%


New Mexico:

PPP: Bayh: 48% Lincoln: 46%

Gallup: Bayh: 49% Lincoln: 46%

NBC/WSJ: Bayh: 48% Lincoln: 47%


New York:

PPP: Lincoln: 46% Bayh: 46%

Gallup: Lincoln: 47% Bayh: 47%

NBC/WSJ: Lincoln: 47% Bayh: 46%

Home state Polls:

Arkansas:

PPP: Lincoln: 66% Bayh: 30%

Gallup: Lincoln: 68% Bayh: 30%

NBC/WSJ: Lincoln: 67% Bayh: 31%


Indiana:

PPP: Bayh: 73% Lincoln: 24%

Gallup: Bayh: 75% Lincoln: 22%

NBC/WSJ: Bayh: 75% Lincoln: 24%

[NHI]

Will have next round posted by 12pm at latest. Doc didn't save and will need to retype.

I appreciate your patience.

NHI

[NHI]

Round 17: Super Tuesday February 6-12, 2008

Delegate Count: Democrats (2,117 needed to be nominated)

Evan Bayh: 1,007

Blanche Lincoln: 989

Hillary Clinton: 90

Howard Dean: 20

Super Tuesday Polls: Results

Alabama: 52 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 57% (31)
Evan Bayh: 43% (21)


Alaska: 13 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 52% ( 8 )
Bayh:    46% (5)


American Samoa: 3 Delegates
√ Bayh: 54% (2)
Lincoln: 46% (1)


Arkansas: 35 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 70% (35)
Bayh:    30%


Arizona: 56 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 50.81% (28)
Bayh: 49.19% (28)


California: 370 Delegates
√ Bayh: 52.00% (191)
Lincoln: 48.00% (179)


Colorado: 53 Delegates
√ Bayh: 51.74% (29)
Lincoln: 48.26% (24)


Connecticut: 48 Delegates
√ Bayh: 56% (29)
Lincoln: 43% (19)


Delaware: 15 Delegates
√ Bayh: 52% (9)
Lincoln: 48% (6)


Georgia: 87 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 58% (53)
Bayh: 42% (34)


Idaho: 18 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 54% (11)
Bayh: 46% (7)


Illinois: 153 Delegates
√ Bayh: 51.00% (78)
Lincoln: 49.00% (75)


Indiana: 72 Delegates
√ Bayh: 76% (72)
Lincoln: 24%


Massachusetts: 93 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 51.24% (50)
Bayh: 48.76%  (43)


Missouri: 72 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 53% (38)
Bayh: 47% (34)


Minnesota: 72 Delegates
√ Bayh: 53% (38)
Lincoln: 47% (34)


North Dakota: 13 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 54% (9)
Bayh: 46%% (4)


New Jersey: 107 Delegates
√ Bayh: 51.04% (56)
Lincoln: 48.96% (51)


New Mexico: 26 Delegates
√ Bayh: 51% (14)
Lincoln: 48% (12)


New York: 232 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 50.99% (117)
Bayh: 49.01% (115)


Oklahoma: 38 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 60% (24)
Bayh: 40% (14)


Tennessee: 68 Delegates
√ Lincoln: 55% (38)
Bayh: 45% (30)


Utah: 23 Delegates
√ Bayh: 55% (14)
Lincoln: 45% (9)

Super Tuesday: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Evan Bayh holds a slim leads in the delegates, Blanche Lincoln trails by a mere 18 votes. 2,117 delegates are needed to be nominated at the convention. Bayh is 1,110 delegates short, and Lincoln is 1,128 delegates shy of the nomination. The results of Super Tuesday is considered a draw at best. Lincoln walked away with twelve wins, many in the important states of Massachusetts and New York, while Bayh walked away with California, though by the narrowest of margins.

The result of no clear winner in the Democratic primary means the race will continue, with the next set of contest coming on February 12.

Upcoming February 12th: Contest Polls 185 Delegates

Louisiana Primary: 56 Delegates

Lincoln: 54%
Bayh: 43%

Nebraska Caucuses: 24 Delegates

Lincoln: 51%
Bayh: 47%

U.S. Virgin Islands Primary: 3 Delegates

Bayh: 52%
Lincoln: 45%

Washington Caucuses: 78 Delegates

Bayh: 49%
Lincoln: 45%

Maine Caucuses: 24 Delegates

Bayh: 48%
Lincoln: 47%

[NHI]

LINCOLN & BAYH TIED IN LATEST CNN POLL

Democratic Primary Poll: February 6, 2008 (CNN POLL)

Blanche Lincoln: 47%
Evan Bayh: 47%

GIULIANI HOLDS ONTO NARROW LEADS IN CNN POLL

General Election Poll: February 6, 2008 (CNN POLL)

Rudy Giuliani: 49% (+2)

Evan Bayh: 47%

Rudy Giuliani: 48% (+2)

Blanche Lincoln: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 45% (+1)

Evan Bayh: 44%

Michael Bloomberg: 4%
Jesse Ventura: 2%

Rudy Giuliani: 44% (+1)

Blanche Lincoln: 43%

Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Jesse Ventura: 3%

[NHI]

Reminder: Forgot to post this:

This round will close on Tuesday at 11:59pm EST

[NHI]

Can we get the results tonight? Since everyone got their posts in on time?

Yes, absolutely.

[NHI]

I will be posting it, now.

[NHI]

Round 18: February 13-9, 2008

Delegate Count: Democrats (2,117 needed to be nominated)

Evan Bayh: 1,092 (14 States Won) Needs 1,025

Blanche Lincoln: 1,089 (13 States Won) Needs 1,028

Hillary Clinton: 90

Howard Dean: 20

Louisiana Primary: 56 Delegates

√ Lincoln: 58% (37)
Bayh: 42% (19)

Nebraska Caucuses: 24 Delegates

√ Lincoln: 52% (14)
Bayh: 48% (10)

U.S. Virgin Islands Primary: 3 Delegates

√ Bayh: 54% (2)
Lincoln: 46% (1)

Washington Caucuses: 78 Delegates

√ Bayh: 50.08 (39)
Lincoln: 49.92% (39)

Maine Caucuses: 24 Delegates

√ Bayh: 54% (15)
Lincoln: 46% (9)

The result of February 12th's contests produced an even closer result than Super Tuesday. Blanche Lincoln and Evan Bayh are separated by only three delegates, underscoring the competitive nature of this Democratic Primary. Both candidates have won impressive victories, amassed tremendous support, but some in Democratic circles are wondering if the prolonged primary will hurt the party's chances to defeat President Giuliani. Recent polls have showed a close race between both Bayh and Lincoln against the President, but one Democratic party official, who refused to go on the record, said "the longer the primary goes on, the more support Giuliani build and the harder it will be to take him down. The polls give both candidates a clear window of defeating him and that's wonderful, but we don't want to look back in late November and think what could have been. Let's look at what can be. It's time for the candidates to rally."

Both candidate have not commented on the remark, but have given the impression they intend to press on. The upcoming contests on February 19th will be the candidate's next chance to close the deal. 456 delegates are at stake, leading some to call it Super Tuesday Part II.

February 19th Contests: Gallup Polling

District of Columbia: 39 Delegates

Lincoln: 50%
Bayh: 49%

Hawaii: 29 Delegates

Bayh: 51%
Lincoln: 45%

Maryland: 98 Delegates

Bayh: 49%
Lincoln: 47%

Virginia: 101 Delegates

Lincoln: 49%
Bayh: 45%

Vermont: 23 Delegates

Lincoln: 51%
Bayh: 45%

Wisconsin: 92 Delegates

Bayh: 50%
Lincoln: 43%

Rhode Island: 33 Delegates

Bayh: 50%
Lincoln: 47%

Mississippi: 41 Delegates

Lincoln: 57%
Bayh: 40%

Democratic Nomination: Gallup Poll

Lincoln: 48%
Bayh: 47%

General Election: Gallup Poll (Giuliani +2)

Giuliani: 50%
Lincoln: 48%

Giuliani: 49%

Bayh: 47%

Average: Giuliani +2

Giuliani: 49.5%

Generic Democrat: 47.5%

President Giuliani Approval Rating: February 12, 2008

Approve: 50%

Disapprove: 44%
Undecided/No Opinion: 6%

Senator Evan Bayh Favorability Rating: February 12, 2008

Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 42%
Undecided/No Opinion: 11%

Senator Blanche Lincoln Favorability Rating: February 12, 2008

Favorable: 48%

Unfavorable: 43%

Undecided/No Opinion: 10%

To Democrats: What is more important a candidate closest to your beliefs or one who can win?

One who Can Win: 52%

Closest to Beliefs: 45%

Who is the strongest Candidate to take on President Giuliani?

Blanche Lincoln: 48%

Evan Bayh: 47%

Support Among Self-Identified Liberals:

Blanche Lincoln: 49%

Evan Bayh: 46%

Support Among Self-Identified Moderates:

Evan Bayh: 50%

Blanche Lincoln: 47%

Upcoming Contests: March 5, 2008

Texas Primary: Tossup
Kansas Caucuses: Lean Lincoln
South Dakota Primary: Lean Lincoln
Ohio Primary: Lean Bayh
Wyoming Caucuses: Solid Lincoln
Puerto Rico Primary: Solid Bayh

March 11, 2008
North Carolina Primary: Solid Lincoln
Pennsylvania Primary: Tossup

March 19, 2008
West Virginia: Solid Lincoln
Democrats Abroad

March 27, 2008
Kentucky: Lean Lincoln
Oregon: Lean Bayh

April 3, 2008
Montana: Tossup

Democratic National Convention: June 16-19, 2008 (Denver, CO)
Republican National Convention: June 23-26, 2008 (St. Paul, MN)

Giuliani: 234

Generic Democrat: 211

Tossup: 93

This Round will close on 11/30/14 at 11:59 pm EST
Great job thus far everyone and Happy Thanksgiving!

[NHI]

FYI:

Going forward the contests will be winner take-all for delegates.

[NHI]

Yes:

Round will close on Monday 12/1/14 at 11:59pm EST

[NHI]

Round 19: February 20-28, 2008

February 19th Contests; Democratic Primary

Delegate Count: Democrats (2,117 needed to be nominated)

Evan Bayh: 1,344 (Needs 733)

Blanche Lincoln: 1,293 (Needs 824)

Hillary Clinton: 90

Howard Dean: 20

February 19th Contests:

District of Columbia: 39 Delegates

√ Lincoln: 50.59% (39)
Bayh: 49.41%

Hawaii: 29 Delegates

√ Bayh: 53% (29)
Lincoln: 47%

Maryland: 98 Delegates

√ Bayh: 51.04% (98)
Lincoln: 48.96%

Virginia: 101 Delegates

√ Lincoln: 52.89% (101)
Bayh: 47.11%

Vermont: 23 Delegates

√ Lincoln: 54% (23)
Bayh: 46%

Wisconsin: 92 Delegates

√ Bayh: 52.01% (92)
Lincoln: 47.99%

Rhode Island: 33 Delegates

√ Bayh: 52% (33)
Lincoln: 48%

Mississippi: 41 Delegates

√ Lincoln: 58% (41)
Bayh: 41%

Upcoming Contests: March 5, 2008 (535 Delegates at stake)
Texas Primary: Tossup (228 Delegates)
Kansas Caucuses: Lean Lincoln (41 Delegates)
South Dakota Primary: Lean Lincoln (23 Delegates)
Ohio Primary: Lean Bayh (162 Delegates)
Wyoming Caucuses: Solid Lincoln (18)
Puerto Rico Primary: Solid Bayh (63)

Blanche Lincoln and Evan Bayh nearly split the contests on Tuesday night, further prolonging the Democratic fight which will head into at least March 5th, where the biggest chunks of states are at play. The race has taken a bit of a negative turn with Senator Bayh criticizing Senator Lincoln. This frivolity is expected to continue. Some pundits on the left believe Bayh's decision to go negative will hurt his chances and help Lincoln, who has seen her numbers rise in a recent Gallup poll.
However, the Democratic Primary was downplayed with the news involving President Giuliani's health. While traveling in Africa, the President became ill. In the mean time the Vice President has assumed the role of Acting President, while the President recovers. The President is expected to make a full recovery and as a result has seen a groundswell of support, both at home and in the polls, where pundits have predicted a increasingly tight race between Giuliani and either of his Democratic rivals.

As for the Democrats, the candidates will debate in Cleveland, Ohio for a debate on February 28th. The debate will cover domestic and foreign policy and will be the candidates' last chance ahead of the March 5th contests.

Pres. Giuliani Approval Ratings: February 19, 2008

Approve: 54%

Disapprove: 41%

Undecided/No Opinion: 5%

General Election: Gallup Poll

Rudy Giuliani: 51%

Blanche Lincoln: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 51%

Evan Bayh: 45%

Gallup: Democratic Primary Poll

Blanche Lincoln: 48%
Evan Bayh: 46%
Undecided: 6%

Debate: Cleveland, Ohio

To Senator Lincoln: Senator, you've proposed a series of new programs, one specifically at confronting poverty, as it will likely come up if you are the Democratic nominee, how do you propose paying for this and other programs and do you do it without raising taxes?

To Senator Bayh: Senator Bayh, similar question: who's winning the war on poverty?

To Senator Lincoln: The campaign has taken a negative turn lately, so lets hope we can clear the air tonight, but Senator Lincoln, what are the major differences between you and Senator Bayh?

To Senator Bayh: Same question Senator, what are the differences between the two of you?

To Senator Lincoln: What is success with the War on Terror?

To Senator Bayh: Senator, do you agree with the President's recent decision on a timetable to bring the troops home?

Now, you will have an opportunity to ask questions of each other.

Closing Statements:


This round will close on Saturday at 11:59pm EST

[NHI]

Really need an extension. Lot's of work to do before doing this.

Yes, can do. I was going to extend it anyway, I've some work that needs to be finished over the weekend. How about we push to Tuesday night?

[NHI]

Upcoming Contests: March 5, 2008 (535 Delegates at stake)

Polling:

Texas Primary: Tossup (228 Delegates)
Lincoln: 47%
Bayh:    47%

Kansas Caucuses: Lean Lincoln (41 Delegates)
Lincoln: 50%
Bayh: 46%

South Dakota Primary: Lean Lincoln (23 Delegates)
Lincoln: 49%
Bayh: 45%

Ohio Primary: Lean Bayh (162 Delegates)
Bayh: 49%
Lincoln: 46%

Wyoming Caucuses: Solid Lincoln (18 Delegates)
Lincoln: 53%
Bayh: 44%

Puerto Rico Primary: Solid Bayh (63 Delegates)
Bayh: 55%
Lincoln: 44%

[NHI]

Round 20: March 6-11, 2008

Early Projections:

Kansas Caucuses: 41 Delegates

√ Blanche Lincoln: 53.81%
Evan Bayh: 46.19%

South Dakota Primary: 23 Delegates

√ Blanche Lincoln: 52.04%
Evan Bayh: 47.96%

Wyoming Caucuses: 18 Delegates

√ Blanche Lincoln: 54.00%
Evan Bayh: 46.00%

Puerto Rico: 63 Delegates

√ Evan Bayh: 55.84%

Blanche Lincoln: 44.16%

Later Projections:

TEXAS:

Texas: 228 Delegates (9:08pm EST) Too Close to Call

Blanche Lincoln: 52.41%
Evan Bayh: 47.59%

Texas: 228 Delegates (9:37pm EST) Too Close to Call

Blanche Lincoln: 51.20%
Evan Bayh: 48.80%

Texas: 228 Delegates (10:01pm EST) Too Close to Call

Blanche Lincoln: 51.19%
Evan Bayh: 48.81%

√ ELECTION PROJECTION: BLANCHE LINCOLN WINS TEXAS PRIMARY

Texas: 228 Delegates (10:59pm EST) Too Close to Call

√ Blanche Lincoln: 51.15%

Evan Bayh: 48.85%

OHIO:

Ohio Primary: 162 Delegates (7:31 pm est) Too Close to Call

Evan Bayh: 54.06%
Blanche Lincoln: 45.94%

Ohio Primary: 162 Delegates (8:09 pm est) Too Close to Call

Evan Bayh: 53.86%
Blanche Lincoln: 46.14%

Ohio Primary: 162 Delegates (8:59 pm est) Too Close to Call

Evan Bayh: 53.00%
Blanche Lincoln: 47.00%

√ Election Projection: Evan Bayh wins Ohio Primary

Ohio Primary: 162 Delegates (10:13 pm)

√ Evan Bayh: 52.63%
Blanche Lincoln: 47.37%

Delegate Count: Democrats (2,117 needed to be nominated)

Blanche Lincoln: 1,603 (Needs 514)

Evan Bayh: 1,559 (Needs 558)

Hillary Clinton: 90

Howard Dean: 20

A spirited debate between Senator Bayh and Lincoln in Cleveland, Ohio. According to Tim Russert, this was the debate to define the race. Both candidates delivered strong performances and remained on point throughout the ninety-minute debate. Initial polls showed a evenly divided split over who won the debate, but in the hours after the debate, especially in the state of Ohio, some momentum seemed to be shifting towards Senator Bayh. As a result the Indiana Senator walked away with a decisive victory in Ohio over Senator Lincoln.

The plus for Senator Lincoln is she now holds a narrow lead in the delegate count and scored the biggest win of night b carrying the Texas Primary, though by a closer margin than expected.

The campaign will now head to North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Polls put Lincoln ahead in North Carolina, making Pennsylvania the battleground. Both sides are going to claim to have momentum, but as we've seen throughout this race, neither candidate has been able to deliver a strong-knockout punch to the other. Perhaps the March 11th contests will do just that...

Some Democrats are growing weary over the prolonged nature of the contest and one Democrat in Congress, who refused to go on record fretted, "that if the primary lasts until June, we're going to on the losing end come November."

"What needs to happen is on March 11th, to effectively wrap this up, is one needs to either carry both and that'll finish it, or say if Bayh wins Pennsylvania along the same margin he won in Ohio and then finishes strong in North Carolina that could be enough to end this thing."

North Carolina Primary: 144 Delegates

Blanche Lincoln: 52%
Bayh: 45%

Pennsylvania Primary: 197 Delegates

Evan Bayh: 50%
Blanche Lincoln: 48%

Democratic Primary Poll: Gallup

Bayh: 49%
Lincoln: 47%

General Election Poll: Gallup (Avg: Giuliani+4.5)

Rudy Giuliani: 51%

Evan Bayh: 47%

Rudy Giuliani: 51%

Blanche Lincoln: 46%

This Round will close Monday at 11:59 pm EST

[NHI]

My apologies for jumping ahead. I mistakenly had written on my end that the previous round was for the March 5th results. I'm sorry for the confusion, the error was on my end.

- NHI