2008 Presidential Election: Game Thread

[NHI]

I will be out of town starting Friday evening unitl Tuesday evening.

I will push this to Wednesday evening. 11:59 pm set

[NHI]

OOC: By my account we are ending the turn on a Monday. Should I add 3/12?

Yes, please do.

[NHI]

Round 20: March 12-19, 2008

Delegate Count: Democrats (2,117 needed to be nominated)

Evan Bayh: 1,756 (Needs 361)

Blanche Lincoln: 1,747 (Needs 370)

Hillary Clinton: 90

Howard Dean: 20

The race for the Democratic nomination has been unlike any in recent memory. The strong contest between Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana and Former Senator and Vice Presidential Candidate Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas has produced passionate support and showed an energized Democratic Party. However, some have been wondering if the prolonged nature of the race will ultimately hurt the eventual nominee.

James Carville, a Clinton ally and backer of Hillary, originally expected Clinton to run away with the nomination and that the Republican primary would be the long slog. "It's turned around in a completely unexpected direction. I think we'll be fine, but we will need to unify around whoever wins the nomination.

In the North Carolina Primary Lincoln was the widely expected winner and while she did clinch the primary, Evan Bayh delivered a commendable showing, finishing with 48 percent of the vote; which can be attributed to a strong push in the final days.

In Pennsylvania, a neighboring midwest state, from Bayh's neck of the woods, went to the Indiana Senator rather convincingly. Bayh leaves the night with a narrow lead in the delegates and reestablished momentum for his campaign.

For the The Giuliani Reelection effort, the President sits on a a 51 percent approval rating and continues to lead either Democratic rivals by two to three points. Though, pundits predict a close race, especially once the Democratic nomination is settled.

North Carolina Primary: 144 Delegates

√ Blanche Lincoln: 51.87% (144)
Evan Bayh: 48.13%

Pennsylvania Primary: 197 Delegates

√ Evan Bayh: 52.80% (197)
Blanche Lincoln: 47.20%

March 19th Primaries:

West Virginia: Lean Lincoln

Democrats Abroad:

March 27th Primaries:

Kentucky: Tossup

Oregon: Lean Bayh

April 3rd: Primaries

Montana: Lean Bayh

This Round will close Monday at 11:59 pm EST

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS:

EVAN BAYH IS THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE

Senator Blanche Lincoln fought the good fight and came closer to winning a major party's nomination than any woman in history. Now, having ended her campaign Evan Bayh becomes the presumptive nominee for the Democrats. Bay will take on President Giuliani in what is already expected to be a closer race. The latest poll puts Bayh down by two points.

Giuliani: 49%
Bayh:     47%

[NHI]

A a Reminder: This round will close tonight.

[NHI]

Round 21: March 20-29, 2008

Delegate Count: Democrats (2,117 needed to be nominated)

Evan Bayh: 1,756 (Needs 361

Blanche Lincoln: 1,747 (Needs 370)

Hillary Clinton: 90

Howard Dean: 20

Top Headlines:

CNN: √ EVAN BAYH: PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE

New York Post: Bayh! Bayh! Blanche! IN Sen. Gets Dem. Nod

New York Times: BAYH Indiana Senator is Presumptive Nominee for the Democratic Party

March 19th Primaries:

West Virginia: √ Bayh: 64% Lincoln: 36%

Democrats Abroad: √ Bayh: 87% Lincoln: 13%

Now the presumptive nominee, Evan Bayh has three months before the Democratic convention to patch together his party after a long and some would say contentious primary battle. He is already making headlines over possible running mates, with Dennis Kucinich gaining traction. The Ohio Congressman would shore up Bayh's left flank and unite the Democratic base around his nomination. The disadvantage to Kucinich is him being a congressman, and that he ran on the Green Party ballot four years ago after losing the Democratic nomination, a move which some Democrats argue cost Joe Biden the election.

Regardless, Bayh now faces President Giuliani directly. Most polls continue to give the President a two to three point lead, even with the addition of the third party candidates. Libertarian Candidate Jesse Ventura made headlines this week as well, with the selection of Buddy Roemer as his running mate. The former Louisiana Governor and Democrat turned Republican is a seen as a bold and smart pick by Ventura, who looks to be competitive with the Democrat and Republican candidates. Given the success of Gary Johnson's campaign four years most pundits expect Ventura to at least meet, if not succeed that floor.

Michael Bloomberg, likely Independent Candidate still polls a distance third behind Bayh and Giuliani. Despite national name ID, Bloomberg has been largely invisible during the primary process, which can be attributed to his drop in the polls. Even if he campaigns at the level many expect him to, the final analysis is that the race will still ultimately come dow to a contest between Giuliani and Bayh.

2008: Battleground Map

Rudy Giuliani: 202

Evan Bayh: 180

This Round will close Monday at 11:59 pm EST
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! - NHI

[NHI]

Polling: March 20, 2008

Alabama: Safe Giuliani

Alaska: Tossup

Giuliani: 44%
Bayh: 39%
Ventura: 10%
Bloomberg: 3%

Arizona: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 45%
Bayh: 40%
Ventura: 4%
Bloomberg: 2%

Arkansas: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 48%
Bayh: 44%
Bloomberg: 3%
Ventura: 2%

California: Lean Bayh

Bayh: 43%
Giuliani: 38%
Bloomberg: 4%
Ventura: 2%

Colorado: Tossup

Giuliani: 43%
Bayh: 37%
Ventura: 6%
Bloomberg: 3%

Connecticut: Tossup

Giuliani: 45%
Bayh: 44%
Bloomberg: 6%
Ventura: 1%

Delaware: Lean Bayh

Bayh: 47%
Giuliani: 44%
Bloomberg: 3%
Ventura: 1%

District of Columbia: Safe Bayh

Florida: Tossup

Giuliani: 46%
Bayh: 42%
Ventura: 3%
Bloomberg: 3%

Georgia: Safe Giuliani

Hawaii: Safe Bayh

Idaho: Safe Giuliani

Illinois: Safe Bayh

Indiana: Tossup

Bayh: 48%
Giuliani: 44%
Bloomberg: 3%
Ventura: 2%

Iowa: Lean Bayh

Bayh: 46%
Giuliani: 39%
Ventura: 4%
Bloomberg: 2%

Kansas: Safe Giuliani

Kentucky: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 47%
Bayh: 43%
Ventura: 3%
Bloomberg: 2%

Louisiana: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 48%
Bayh: 41%
Ventura: 6%
Bloomberg: 2%

Maryland: Safe Bayh

Massachusetts: Safe Bayh

Michigan: Lean Bayh

Bayh: 50%
Giuliani: 45%
Bloomberg: 2%
Ventura: 1%

Minnesota: Tossup

Bayh: 39%
Giuliani: 37%
Ventura: 11%
Bloomberg: 4%

Mississippi: Safe Giuliani

Missouri: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 50%
Bayh: 46%
Ventura: 3%
Bloomberg: 1%

Maine: Tossup

Bayh: 48%
Giuliani: 45%
Bloomberg: 3%
Ventura: 2%

[NHI]

I'll give this an extension until tonight. Been under the weather.
Am wondering on candidates thoughts on moving up after two more rounds to the week before the dnc?

[NHI]

Round 22: March 30-April 6, 2008

Now the presumptive nominee, Evan Bayh has two months before the Democratic convention to unite his party with a winning ticket. After eight years, lost in the political woods the Democrats are desperate to return to power and are banking that the Indiana Senator can deliver them back the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Still, national polls give the edge to President Giuliani and even with the presence of Michael Bloomberg and Jesse Ventura, some pundits give the edge to Giuliani.

"It is early," said NBC's Tom Brokaw. "And there is a long way to go before November. I remember back when George Herbert Walker Bush looked liked he could not be beaten and then came out of nowhere this little Governor from Arkansas and thus we got President Clinton. But you have to remember and acknowledge the power of incumbency and Giuliani is still relatively popular and that help. If the economy holds steady and the world is relatively stable Giuliani is the odds on favorite, but we shouldn't discount Senator Bayh. He comes from a distinguished political family and no one expected he'd win the nomination and here he is..."

President Giuliani Approval Rating: April 6, 2008

Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 43%
Undecided: 6%

Gallup National Polling: April 2008 (Giuliani +4)

Pres. Giuliani: 50%
Sen. Bayh: 46%

NBC/WSJ Polling: April 2008 (Giuliani +3)

Pres. Giuliani: 49%
Sen. Bayh: 46%

Ohio: Polling: Tossup

Giuliani: 46%
Bayh: 43%
Ventura: 4%
Bloomberg: 2%

New Hampshire: Polling: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 45%

Bayh: 40%

Ventura: 6%
Bloomberg: 3%

New York: Polling: Tossup

Giuliani: 37%

Bayh: 33%

Bloomberg: 8%
Ventura: 1%

2008: Battleground Map

Rudy Giuliani: 202

Evan Bayh: 180

This Round will close Sunday at 11:59pm EST

I'm sorry for the delay in posting this round. I've been pretty sick the last few days, trying to get back on the mend.

[NHI]

Can we extend this?

I'll extend it to Monday, same time.

[NHI]

Round 23: April 7 -April 13, 2008

Excitement is building as Senator Bayh is set to announce his pick for Vice President, and with the start of the convention a little over two months away Democrats and Republicans are preparing for what will likely be a contentious fight for the White House. President Giuliani seems to be taking nothing for granted, traveling to the key states of Ohio and Florida, both which delivered for him in 2004. Senator Bayh spent the week visiting Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York, the latter two went for Giuliani four years ago and Bayh would certainly like to take those back into the Democratic column. The

Senator also made several appearance on the TV circuit, stopping by the Tonight Show where he sang "Happy Days are Here Again", as well as appearing on Saturday Night Live as the host. This move is by the Bayh Campaign is seen as an effort to make their candidate more relatable and self-depricating.  The Senator, while considered by many to be brilliant and well informed on policy has a reputation for being somewhat dull in the personality department. Only time will tell if this effort pays off.

Polls continue to show a tight race between Bayh and the President, but Giuliani continues to hold the advantage.

President Giuliani Approval Rating: April 10, 2008

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 42%
Undecided: 6%

Senator Bayh: Favorability Rating: April 10, 2008

Favorable: 46%

Unfavorable: 37%
No Opinion: 17%

Gallup National Polling: April 2008 (Giuliani +4)

Pres. Giuliani: 51%
Sen. Bayh: 47%

NBC/WSJ Polling: April 2008 (Giuliani +3)

Pres. Giuliani: 50%
Sen. Bayh: 47%

Florida: Polling: Tossup

Giuliani: 48%
Bayh: 43%
Bloomberg: 3%
Ventura: 2%

Wisconsin: Polling: Tossup

Giuliani: 46%

Bayh: 45%

Ventura: 4%
Bloomberg: 1%

Indiana: Polling: Tossup

Bayh: 49%

Giuliani: 44%

Ventura: 3%
Bloomberg: 2%

2008: Battleground Map

Rudy Giuliani: 202

Evan Bayh: 180

This Round will close Saturday at 11:59pm EST

[NHI]

SENATOR BAYH PICKS
BARACK OBAMA TO BE HIS VP
The Illinois Senator was elected in 2004.

[NHI]

Round 24: April 14-20, 2008

It's Obama! Evan Bayh announced Barack Obama will be the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee. The pick of the freshmen Senator who won his seat in 2004 has been seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party and not only is his selection historic -- it is seen as an ideal pick by Bayh as he looks to lock up his Democratic base and also play strong in the midwest.

Obama brings little baggage to the ticket, having only been in the Senate two years, however as a novice it does raise the question: Is he ready to be President? Only time will tell, but for now Bayh has seen a surge in the polls, running neck and neck with the President and receiving a boost of support over the historic pick.

However, the pick was not without some drama. Rumors began circulating that the Illinois Democrat would be the pick for VP for a few days, and reportedly Bayh's campaign refused to consider Rep. Dennis Kucinich, and blamed him for his role in Joe Biden's loss to Rudy Giuliani in 2004. Kucinich, ran and lost in the Democratic Primaries in 2004 and then ran on the Green Party ticket.

NBC/WSJ Poll: April 13, 2008 (Giuliani +1)

Giuliani: 49%

Bayh: 48%

Gallup Poll: April 13, 2008 (Giuliani +2)

Giuliani: 48%

Bayh: 46%[/center

Missouri Polling: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 47%

Bayh: 43%[/center

Ventura: 2%
Bloomberg: 1%

Kentucky Polling: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 47%

Bayh: 42%[/center

Ventura: 2%
Bloomberg: 1%

West Virginia Polling: Lean Giuliani

Giuliani: 49%

Bayh: 44%[/center

Ventura: 1%
Bloomberg: 0.5%

This round will close on Wednesday at 11:59pm EST

[NHI]

Latest Rounds of Polling

Gallup: Giuliani +2
R: 48%
D: 46%

NBC/WSJ: Tied
R: 47%
D: 47%

Rasmussen: Giuliani +4
R: 49%
D: 45%

CNN/Time: Giuliani +1
R: 47%
D: 46%

PPP: Bayh +1
D: 46%
R: 45%

[NHI]

Can we extend this round, until Thurs, 11:59 am?

Yes, no problem!

[NHI]

I'll give a final extension for this round until tomorrow at 11:59pm EST

[NHI]

I apologize for the game's decline, I do wish it was brought to my attention earlier, as I would have done something to improve the quality, but it seems now there is no interest in continuing.

If someone else wants to take over the game - fine, but I will no longer continue as the moderator.