2008 Presidential Election: Game Thread

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: Ralph NADER DROPS OUT PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Ralph Nader drops out of Presidential Race
Cites Health Reasons
Endorsement: "America could do worse than with Howard Dean; as long as he stays true to his principles like he did as Governor of Vermont"

Ralph Nader ended his Green Party bid for the Presidency, citing health reasons and endorsed Howard Dean for President. Nader's departure opens up the general election race, which already includes a libertarian bid by Minnesota Senator Jesse Ventura and an Independent bid by Michael Bloomberg. Some pundits see Nader's departure as a blessing to Democrats, given the success of Dennis Kucinich in 2004 and his name recognition Nader looked poised to mount a serious third party challenge. His exit looks to remake the race in a similar fashion to last year. The two main parties, with two third party challenges.

General Election Polling: November 2008

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 35% (+5)

(D) Hillary Clinton: 30%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 23%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 7%
Undecied: 6%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 35% (+6)

(D) Howard Dean:  29%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 24%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 7%
Undecied: 5%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 36% (+5)

(D)  Evan Bayh: 31%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 20%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 8%
Undecied: 5%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 34% (+6)

(D) John Kerry: 28%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 24%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 9%
Undecied: 5%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 36% (+5)

(D) Blanche Lincoln: 31%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 18%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 9%
Undecied: 7%

General Election Poll: Two-Person Race

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+6)

(D) Hillary Clinton: 45%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+5)

(D) Blanche Lincoln: 46%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+6)

(D) Evan Bayh: 45%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+8)

(D) Howard Dean: 44%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+7)

(D) John Kerry: 44%

Polling Averages:

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 35.2% (+5.4)

Democrats: 29.8%

(I) Michael Bloomberg: 21.8%
(L) Jesse Ventura: 8.0%
Undecided: 5.2%

(R) Rudy Giuliani: 51.2% (+6.4)

Democrats: 44.8%

Undecided: 4.0%

Battleground States:

Ohio: Won by Giuliani +1.1% (Tossup)

New York: Won by Giuliani +4.3% (Tossup)

Montana: Won by Johnson +0.7% (Lean Giuliani)

Wisconsin: Won by Giuliani +0.9% (Tossup)

Colorado: Won by Biden +0.1% (Tossup)

Washington: Won by Kucinich +1.5% (Tossup)

Minnesota: Won by Johnson +3.7% (Tossup)

Missouri: Won by Giuliani +2.7% (Tossup)

Iowa: Won by Biden +1.2% (Tossup)

Oregon: Won by Biden +2.5% (Tossup)

Florida: Won by Giuliani +1.5% (Tossup)

Nevada: Won by Biden +1.0% (Tossup)

Kentucky: Won by Biden +1.1% (Tossup)

Connecticut: Won by Giuliani +2.3% (Tossup)

Arkansas: Won by Biden +0.6% (Lean Giuliani)

Pennsylvania: Won by Biden +1.4% (Lean Democrat)

New Jersey: Won by Giuliani +2.7% (Tossup)

[NHI]

Yes, we can push it off one more day.

[NHI]

Reminder this round will close tonight at 11:59 pm EST

[NHI]

Super Tuesday: 2008 Polls (Republican)

Alabama:

Rudy Giuliani: 57%
Mark Sanford: 37%
Undecided: 6%

Alaska:

Rudy Giuliani: 56%
Mark Sanford: 39%
Undecided: 5%

Arizona:

Rudy Giuliani: 66%
Mark Sanford: 29%
Undecided: 5%

Arkansas:

Rudy Giuliani: 58%
Mark Sanford: 35%
Undecided: 7%

California:

Rudy Giuliani: 71%
Mark Sanford: 20%
Undecided: 9%

Colorado:

Rudy Giuliani: 63%
Mark Sanford: 25%
Undecided: 12%

Connecticut:

Rudy Giuliani: 80%
Mark Sanford: 12%
Undecided: 8%

Delaware:

Rudy Giuliani: 70%
Mark Sanford: 19%
Undecided: 11%

Illinois:

Rudy Giuliani: 59%
Mark Sanford: 29%
Undecided: 12%

Massachusetts:

Rudy Giuliani: 69%
Mark Sanford: 19%
Undecided: 12%

Minnesota:

Rudy Giuliani: 59%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 13%

Montana:

Rudy Giuliani: 57%
Mark Sanford: 33%
Undecided: 10%

New Jersey:

Rudy Giuliani: 74%
Mark Sanford: 17%
Undecided: 9%

New York:

Rudy Giuliani: 80%
Mark Sanford: 12%
Undecided: 8%

North Dakota:

Rudy Giuliani: 55%
Mark Sanford: 36%
Undecided: 9%

Oklahoma:

Rudy Giuliani: 54%
Mark Sanford: 37%
Undecided: 9%

Tennessee:

Rudy Giuliani: 54%
Mark Sanford: 38%
Undecided: 8%

Utah:

Rudy Giuliani: 61%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 11%

West Virginia:

Rudy Giuliani: 59%
Mark Sanford: 33%
Undecided: 8%

[NHI]

Super Tuesday: 2008 Polls (Democrat)

Alabama:

Blanche Lincoln: 27%
Hillary Clinton: 19%
Evan Bayh: 18%
Howard Dean: 12%
John Kerry; 9%
Undecided: 15%

Alaska:

Hillary Clinton: 20%
Howard Dean: 19%
Evan Bayh: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 14%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 17%

Arizona:

Hillary Clinton: 20%
Evan Bayh: 20%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Howard Dean: 17%
John Kerry: 14%
Undecided: 11%

Arkansas:

Blanche Lincoln: 28%
Hillary Clinton: 25%
Evan Bayh: 16%
Howard Dean: 14%
John Kerry: 7%
Undecided: 10%

California:

Howard Dean: 19%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 15%
John Kerry: 14%
Undecided: 16%

Colorado:

Howard Dean: 21%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 16%
John Kerry: 14%
Undecided: 12%

Connecticut:

Hillary Clinton: 21%
John Kerry: 20%
Howard Dean: 17%
Evan Bayh: 16%
Blanche Lincoln: 12%
Undecided: 14%

Delaware:

Evan Bahy: 20%
Hillary Clinton: 18%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Howard Dean: 17%
John Kerry: 14%
Undecided: 13%

Idaho:

Hillary Clinton: 20%
Blanche Lincoln: 20%
Evan Bayh: 17%
Howard Dean: 16%
John Kerry: 11%
Undecided: 16%

Illinois:

Evan Bayh: 23%
Blanche Lincoln: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
Howard Dean: 16%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 12%

Massachusetts:

John Kerry: 59%
Hillary Clinton: 10%
Howard Dean: 9%
Evan Bayh: 7%
Blanche Lincoln: 5%
Undecided: 10%

Minnesota:

Evan Bayh: 23%
Howard Dean: 20%
Hillary Clinton: 18%
Blanche Lincoln: 16%
John Kerry: 10%
Undecided: 13%

Missouri:

Blanche Lincoln: 29%
Hillary Clinton: 19%
Evan Bayh: 16%
Howard Dean: 14%
John Kerry: 10%
Undecided: 12%

New Jersey:

Hillary Clinton: 39%
Evan Bayh: 17%
Howard Dean: 15%
Blanche Lincoln: 12%
John Kerry: 7%
Undecided: 10%

New York:

Hillary Clinton: 57%
Evan Bayh: 13%
Howard Dean: 9%
Blanche Lincoln: 7%
John Kerry: 5%
Undecided: 9%

North Dakota:

Evan Bayh: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 19%
Howard Dean: 17%
Hillary Clinton: 15%
John Kerry: 11%
Undecided: 10%

Oklahoma:

Blanche Lincoln: 26%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
Evan Bayh: 16%
Howard Dean: 13%
John Kerry: 10%
Undecided: 15%

Tennessee:

Blanche Lincoln: 25%
Hilary Clinton: 20%
Evan Bayh: 18%
Howard Dean: 14%
John Kerry: 10%
Undecided: 13%

Utah:

Hillary Clinton: 24%
Howard Dean: 20%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
Evan Bayh: 15%
John Kerry: 10%
Undecided: 14%

----
Additional: Georgia (R +D)

Georgia: (Republican)

Rudy Giuliani: 58%
Mark Sanford: 30%
Undecided: 12%

Georgia: (Democrat)

Blanche Lincoln: 24%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
Evan Bayh: 17%
Howard Dean: 14%
John Kerry: 12%
Undecided: 13%

[NHI]

Round Six: December 2-8, 2007

The Wind-Down

The primary campaign is heading into it's final stretch before the first contests in Iowa. Less than month away and it is a coin toss in Iowa. Evan Bayh, Blanche Lincoln and Howard Dean are the three favorites going into the contest and the trio are the candidates making the headlines and building momentum. All three have delivered strong debate performances and have laid the groundwork for success in the caucuses.

Evan Bayh is out with a new series of ad highlighting his time in the Senate career and experience, with each one running with a recurring theme: Leadership. The ads are running in all the major states. For the first time the Indiana Democrat has topped the poll for Democratic primary voter's first preference, followed by Lincoln and Dean who tie and Clinton in a close third.

Dean is boning up in his foreign policy credentials, meeting with world leaders, as well as visiting Iraq. He took the week of traditional campaigning and many credit it as a smart move for the Vermont Governor, who lacks in the foreign policy area.

Iowa is going to be the test for all three. Bayh has slightly moved up to first, with Dean close behind. Lincoln and Clinton follow with third and fourth respectively. For Clinton, her focus should be on New Hampshire, Michigan and Florida, where she strengths lie and she has found success in the past.

While Dean, Bayh and Lincoln are the ones creating the headlines as of late Hillary Clinton is not to be counted out just yet. The New York Democrat seems to have regained her footing and found her voice. She is actively making her way to all the early states, proving that she is very much still in this race and talking with sources close to the campaign, they are fully prepared for victory and believe Clinton is in the underdog position and will come from behind.

John Kerry is still a contender in the Democratic race, with his best shot at shaking up the primary by winning New Hampshire. All pundits and sources close to the campaign have declared it the be and end all for the Kerry campaign. He must win New Hampshire to be viable and remain in the race.

On the Republican side President Giuliani still enjoys relatively high approval ratings for an incumbent (52 percent). Meanwhile, he continues to dominate in his primary with South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, though Sanford is making some headway in Iowa, but more significantly in South Carolina, his home state. Analyst believe for Sanford to have legitimacy he must perform better than expected in either Iowa or New Hampshire and all out win South Carolina. It's a tall order with a little under a month to go.

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: December 2004

Evan Bayh: 19%
Howard Dean:  18%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 15%

Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2004

Rudy Giuliani: 61%
Mark Sanford: 29%
Undecided: 10%

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Preference Poll: December 2007

Evan Bayh: 21%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
John Kerry: 14%
Undecided: 10%

Iowa Republican Caucuses Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 60%
Mark Sanford: 33%
Undecided: 7%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

John Kerry: 19%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
Howard Dean: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 15%
Undecided:  13%

New Hampshire Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 66%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 6%

Nevada Democratic Caucuses Preference Poll: December 2007

Howard Dean: 21%
Evan Bayh: 20%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 11%

Nevada Republican Caucuses Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 67%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 4%

South Carolina Democratic Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Blanche Lincoln: 26%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Howard Dean: 14%
John Kerry: 12%
Undecided: 10%

South Carolina Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 51%
Mark Sanford: 45%
Undecided: 4%

Michigan Democratic Primary Poll: Preference Poll: December 2007

Evan Bayh: 24%
Howard Dean: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 16%
John Kerry: 12%
Undecided: 13%

Michigan Republican Primary Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 69%
Mark Sanford: 27%
Undecided: 4%

Florida Democratic Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Blanche Lincoln: 23%
Hillary Clinton: 19%
Evan Bahy: 18%
Howard Dean: 15%
John Kerry: 14%
Undecided: 11%

Florida Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 60%
Mark Sanford: 32%
Undecided: 8%

Maine Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 77%
Mark Sanford: 19%
Undecided: 4%

Wyoming Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 52%
Mark Sanford: 42%
Undecided: 6%

--
This round will close Friday at 11:59 pm EST

[NHI]

Reminder this round closes tonight at 11:59 pm est

[NHI]

Round 7: December 9-15, 2007

Less than a month before the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary and the candidates are continuing to make their case. Hillary Clinton is trying to reassert herself as a major candidate in the race, with trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. Clinton also attended a Pearl Harbor Memorial in Hawaii.

This week Al Gore went up on the air with an ad supporting Howard Dean. Gore's endorsement is big boost to the Dean campaign as he look to rally support in Iowa, which is seen to be an important state for Dean in terms of testing his viability as a candidate. Currently, Dean is in a three-way race with Blanche Lincoln and Evan Bayh. Both Bayh and Lincoln are playing strong for the state and with an upcoming debate taking place it will be an opportunity for each of the candidates to distinguish themselves.

John Kerry is still a factor in the race, spending his campaign resources and time in New Hampshire, but recent polls have shown him slip, with Bayh, Dean and Clinton gaining and gaining strong. The debate will be an opportunity for Kerry to reemerge.

Polls on the Democratic side show Bayh and Dean still locked for first, with Clinton and Lincoln battling out for second. Kerry polls up the rear. Most pundits believe the results of the Iowa Caucuses will shape the rest o the primary process going forward. "The winner will instantly become the front runner, and who finishes second and third will be in the top tier." -- Chris Matthews.

On the Republican side President Giuliani is holding strong, though polls continue to show a tightening in South Carolina, but Mark Sanford still has some ground to make up in Iowa, where he needs to make a strong showing to be considered a viable challenger to Giuliani.

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: December 2004

Evan Bayh: 19%
Howard Dean:  19%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 14%

Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2004

Rudy Giuliani: 61%
Mark Sanford: 30%
Undecided: 9%

Iowa Democratic Caucuses Preference Poll: December 2007

Evan Bayh: 20%
Howard Dean: 20%
Blanche Lincoln: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 18%
John Kerry: 14%
Undecided: 9%

Iowa Republican Caucuses Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 61%
Mark Sanford: 34%
Undecided: 5%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Howard Dean: 19%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 18%
John Kerry: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 15%
Undecided:  12%

New Hampshire Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 65%
Mark Sanford: 29%
Undecided: 6%

Nevada Democratic Caucuses Preference Poll: December 2007

Howard Dean: 20%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 18%
John Kerry: 12%
Undecided: 11%

Nevada Republican Caucuses Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 68%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 3%

South Carolina Democratic Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Blanche Lincoln: 27%
Hillary Clinton: 21%
Evan Bayh: 18%
Howard Dean: 15%
John Kerry: 11%
Undecided: 9%

South Carolina Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 52%
Mark Sanford: 45%
Undecided: 3%

Michigan Democratic Primary Poll: Preference Poll: December 2007

Evan Bayh: 25%
Howard Dean: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 18%
Blanche Lincoln: 16%
John Kerry: 12%
Undecided: 10%

Michigan Republican Primary Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 67%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 5%

Florida Democratic Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Blanche Lincoln: 23%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
Evan Bayh: 18%
Howard Dean: 16%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 10%

Florida Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 60%
Mark Sanford: 33%
Undecided: 7%

Maine Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 78%
Mark Sanford: 19%
Undecided: 3%

Wyoming Republican Primary Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 53%
Mark Sanford: 42%
Undecided: 5%

Debate: Greenville, South Carolina

During this debate the candidates will be able to ask questions of each other.

Senator Clinton: What are the options for ensuring that Iran does not achieve its goal of obtaining a nuclear weapon?

Senator Lincoln: There has been a lot of talk about healthcare reform, how do you make it happen, even with a divided Congress?

Senator Kerry: Why should Democrats nominate you instead your opponents?

Governor Dean: If you become President, and you are dealing with a divided Congress, how do you bring both sides together?

Senator Bayh: The question over the federal government's role in Education continues to come up. Is this an area where more government is needed or less?

This round will close on Wednesday at 11:59 pm EST

[NHI]

Can I have 10 endorsements for this round? Since that I didn't put up an endorsement list last round

Yes, that's fine.

[NHI]

General Election Polling: December 2007

Two-way Race:

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+6)

Hillary Clinton: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+6)

Blanche Lincoln: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+8)

John Kerry: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+5)

Evan Bayh: 46%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+7)

Howard Dean: 44%

Four-way Race:

Rudy Giuliani: 34% (+5)

Hillary Clinton: 29%

Michael Bloomberg: 20%

Jesse Ventura: 11%

Rudy Giuliani: 32% (+6)

Hillary Clinton: 26%

Michael Bloomberg: 23%

Jesse Ventura: 12%

Rudy Giuliani: 34% (+7)

John Kerry: 26%

Michael Bloomberg: 24%

Jesse Ventura: 11%

Rudy Giuliani: 35% (+4)

Evan Bayh: 31%

Michael Bloomberg: 20%

Jesse Ventura: 10%

Rudy Giuliani: 33% (+7)

Howard Dean: 26%

Michael Bloomberg: 21%

Jesse Ventura: 13%

Average: Two-way Race: Giuliani +6.4

Rudy Giuliani: 51.2%

Democrat: 44.8%

Average: Four-way Race: Giuliani +6

Rudy Giuliani: 33.4%

Democrat: 27.4%

Michael Bloomberg: 21.6%

Jesse Ventura: 11.4%

The latest round of polls are somewhat telling. First, Rudy Giuliani is generally running about where he was at the start of the year. He leads his Democratic rivals on average by six points. This new polls show Evan Bayh as the strongest challenger to Giuliani. In head-to-head match ups Bayh trails by five, whereas in a four way race he trails by one four. John  Kerry does the worst against the President, trailing him by eight points in both polls. In the four-way race Jesse Ventura has seen his numbers rise slightly, while Michael Bloomberg has remained relatively consistent, hovering around twenty-one percent.

[NHI]

It closes tomorrow night.

[NHI]

It closes tomorrow night.

Please extend it

I will move it to tomorrow night 11:59 pm est

[NHI]

OOC: I thought it would be unfair to pose any questions, given that the turn ended last night.

NHI extended it to tonight, if I'm not misunderstanding things.

It ends tonight, I did extend it.

[NHI]

Round 8: December 16-26, 2007

Less than a month to go before the Iowa Caucuses and the race for the Democratic Nomination is anyone's game. The candidates participated in what will likely be their final debate before the caucuses and pundits agreed it was a lively debate. First, Hillary Clinton faced criticism over his vote for the Iraq War in 2002. The question came from Howard Dean, a strong and fierce opponent and critic of the war, but Clinton came through with a strong response that while may not win her a lot of praise in a Democratic primary, it certainly played well with a general electorate.

Senator Lincoln was also on the hot seat, facing a question regarding her decision to step down from the Senate, but the Arkansas Democrat rebuffed the question from Senator Clinton. Howard Dean was seen as one of the winner's of the debate, delivering a commanding debate performance and presenting himself a what now appears to be: the man to beat in Iowa. Dean has seen his poll numbers increase dramatically after the debate.

Evan Bayh, also delivered a strong performance, which is likely to help him here in Iowa. He is also hoping that his presence from nearby Indiana may help close the deal with a win over Dean. Still Blanche Lincoln and Hillary Clinton are not to be discounted, after both delivering strong debate performances, both women cannot be counted out just yet.

John Kerry's performance was regarded as fair, and his numbers have not moved much in Iowa, though the candidate is continue to make a play for the New Hampshire. Kerry went up with a series of ad, targeting the all important first in the nation primary. Pundits agree New Hampshire is a must win state for John Kerry.

On the Republican Primary, Rudy Giuliani continues to dominate, topping public opinion polls and all the early primary states against Mark Sanford. The only states of concern a week ago was South Carolina, where Giuliani only led narrowly, he has now opened up a comfortable lead over the South Carolina Governor.

As the holidays approach most Americans will be focusing on Christmas and spending time with families, which will only leave a few precious days before the first votes.

Democratic Nomination Preference Poll: December 2007

Howard Dean: 22%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
John Kerry: 13%
Undecided: 10%

Republican Nomination Preference Poll: December 2007

Rudy Giuliani: 64%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 8%

Iowa Caucuses Poll: Democrats

Howard Dean: 26%
Evan Bayh: 22%
Hillary Clinton: 18%
Blanche Lincoln: 18%
John Kerry: 11%
Undecided: 5%

Iowa Caucuses Poll: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 63%

Mark Sanford: 30%
Undecided: 7%

New Hampshire Primary Poll: Democrats

Evan Bayh: 20%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
Howard Dean: 20%
John Kerry: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 14%
Undecided: 7%

New Hampshire Primary Poll: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 68%
Mark Sanford: 27%
Undecided: 5%

South Carolina Primary Poll: Democrats

Blanche Lincoln: 26%
Hillary Clinton: 21%
Evan Bayh: 18%
Howard Dean: 18%
John Kerry: 9%
Undecided: 8%

South Carolina Primary Poll: Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 53%
Mark Sanford: 42%
Undecided: 5%

More Polls per requests.

This Round will close Monday at 8:59 pm Est

[NHI]

May we get an extension to midnight tonight, like when the rounds usually end?

In light of the holiday I will push the closing one day.

This round will close on Tuesday at 11:59 pm EST

[NHI]

Round Closes at Midnight.

[NHI]

Round 9: December 27, 2007 - January 1, 2008

The Countdown to...IOWA

It's, Iowa! Iowa! Iowa! The race to the caucuses is on and on the Democratic side the race is heating up. Howard Dean, the longtime frontrunner holds onto a narrow lead in the state, but it is now within the margin of error. Evan Bayh is polling second, with Hillary Clinton and Blanche Lincoln trading spots for third place. The Dean Campaign claims momentum going, but Bayh is looking for an upset and with an intense focus on the state the Indiana Senator maybe poised to shakeup the Democratic race.

In the final days the candidates will be crisscrossing the state, reaching out to last minute voters, hoping to bring out enough people for the caucuses. Four years ago, John Edwards was the favorite going into the caucuses and despite being sidelined in the hospital Edwards narrowly won the caucuses, but did not go onto win the nomination. Dean is looking to reverse that trend.

On the Republican side President Rudy Giuliani continues to hold onto a significant lead over Mark Sanford and by all account is poised for a win on January 3rd. However, the South Carolina Governor is focusing his efforts on what can only be described as a strong GOTV in both Iowa and South Carolina, where in the latter the polls have tightened.

In the final days all the candidates will be profiled in a 'Meet the Candidates Series' to give the caucuses giving voters a last minute chance to learn about the candidates.

Iowa Caucuses: Democratic Preference

Howard Dean: 25.0%
Evan Bayh: 23.7%
Hillary Clinton: 18.4%
Blanche Lincoln: 18.0%
John Kerry: 10.9%
Undecided: 4%

Iowa Caucuses: Republican Preference

Rudy Giuliani: 65%
Mark Sanford: 32%
Undecided: 3%

New Hampshire Primary: Democratic Preference

Evan Bayh: 20%
Howard Dean: 19%
Hillary Clinton: 19%
John Kerry: 18%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
Undecided: 8%

New Hampshire Primary: Republican Preference

Rudy Giuliani: 68%
Mark Sanford: 27%
Undecided: 5%

South Carolina Primary: Democratic Preference

Blanche Lincoln: 26%
Hillary Clinton: 21%
Evan Bayh: 18%
Howard Dean: 18%
John Kerry: 9%
Undecided: 8%

South Carolina Primary: Republican Preference

Rudy Giuliani: 51%
Mark Sanford: 44%
Undecided: 5%

Nevada Caucuses: Democratic Preference

Howard Dean: 21%
Evan Bayh: 20%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
John Kerry: 11%
Undecided: 14%

Nevada Caucuses: Republican Preference

Rudy Giuliani: 63%
Mark Sanford: 30%
Undecided: 7%

Michigan Primary: Democratic Preference

Evan Bayh: 26%
Howard Dean: 23%
Hillary Clinton: 19%
Blanche Lincoln: 17%
John Kerry: 7%
Undecided: 8%

Michigan Primary: Republican Preference

Rudy Giuliani: 65%
Mark Sanford: 28%
Undecided: 7%

Florida Primary: Democratic Preference

Blanche Lincoln: 22%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
Evan Bayh: 19%
Howard Dean: 17%
John Kerry: 10%
Undecided: 12%

Florida Primary: Republican Preference

Rudy Giuliani: 63%
Mark Sanford: 27%
Undecided: 10%

This round will close Sunday at 11:59 pm EST
Please PM any information you'd like in the candidate profiles.

[NHI]

Two-way General Election Polls:

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)

Blanche Lincoln: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+5)

Evan Bayh: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 50% (+6)

Hillary Clinton: 44%

Rudy Giuliani: 51% (+6)

Howard Dean: 45%

Rudy Giuliani: 52% (+9)

John Kerry: 43%

Two-way Race Average: (R+6.2)

Rudy Giuliani: 50.6%

Democrat: 44.4%

Four-way: General Election Polls:

Rudy Giuliani: 34%

Blanche Lincoln: 30%

Michael Bloomberg: 18%
Jesse Ventura: 10%

Rudy Giuliani: 33%

Evan Bayh: 28%

Michael Bloomberg: 19%

Jesse Ventura: 10%

Rudy Giuliani: 33%

Hillary Clinton: 28%

Michael Bloomberg: 18%

Jesse Ventura: 9%

Rudy Giuliani: 35%

Howard Dean: 29%

Michael Bloomberg: 20%

Jesse Ventura: 11%

Rudy Giuliani: 38%

John Kerry: 27%

Michael Bloomberg: 18%
Jesse Ventura: 10%

Four-way Race: Average (R+6.2)

Rudy Giuliani: 34.6%

Democrat: 28.4%

Michael Bloomberg: 18.6%
Jesse Ventura: 12.5%

[NHI]

Battleground Polls: Two-way

Ohio: R+2
Republican: 49%
Democrat: 47%

Pennsylvania: D+4
Democrat: 50%
Republican: 46%

Florida: R+3
Republican: 50%
Democrat: 47%

Wisconsin: D+0.5
Democrat: 48.0%
Republican: 47.5%

Iowa: D+1
Democrat: 48%
Republican: 47%

New Hampshire: R+1.5
Republican: 49.0%
Democrat: 47.5%

Nevada: Tied
Republican: 48.01%
Democrat: 48.00%

California: D+9
Democrat: 51%
Republican: 42%

New York: R+3
Republican: 48%
Democrat: 45%

New Jersey: D+1
Democrat: 47%
Republican: 46%

Minnesota: D+3
Democrat: 48%
Republican: 45%

Colorado: R+4
Republican: 49%
Democrat: 45%

New Mexico: D+0.5
Democrat: 49.0%
Republican: 48.5%

Average Battleground States: D+0.43

Democrats: 47.73%
Republican: 47.30%

Key Senate Races: 2008

NH: R Incumbent (R+3)
John Sununu: 48%
Jeanne Shaheen: 45%

NC: R Incumbent (R+6)
Elizabeth Dole: 51%
Kay Hagan: 45%

MN: R Incumbent (R+1)
Norm Coleman: 48%
Al Franken: 47%

OR: R Incumbent (R+2)
Gordon Smith: 49%
Democrat: 47%

LA: D Incumbent (R+1)
John Neely Kennedy: 48%
Mary Landrieu: 47%

AK: R Incumbent (D+1)
Mark Begich: 46%
Ted Stevens: 45%

NH Senate Republican Primary: Sununu +12
John Sununu: 54%
Bob Smith: 42%

AK Senate Republican Primary: Palin +5
Sarah Palin: 50%
Ted Stevens: 45%

[NHI]

I agree on the symbolism - but I believe we should keep the deadline.

[NHI]

Question:

Do you all want a mini-two day schedule? Or would you like me to go straight to the Caucus results (perhaps dividing into two parts)?

[NHI]

I would like the two-day schedule. We've done that with all the other games as far as I remember and they can make a difference.

That's what I thought...to be honest I couldn't quite remember what'd been done.

Thanks. ;-)

[NHI]

Hillary Clinton: Determination

Hillary Clinton was widely expected to win the Democratic Nomination four years ago. A strong and competent campaign was ultimately derailed by setbacks and missteps. Now four years hence she is taking nothing for granted! By keeping expectations to a minimum this time Clinton is working hard in Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping to sneak from behind and walk away with the win and be on the road to the nomination. It's a tall order, but Clinton is an unrelenting campaigner and after coming up short four years ago will give it her best not to let history repeat itself.

The Dean Factor

If asked who Howard Dean is, a person might respond with: who's that? Howard Dean entered the race as a dark horse candidate, but now is on the verge of winning the Iowa Caucuses. The Former Vermont Governor is feisty, passionate and energizing the Democratic Party base -- and may be the candidate Democrats are looking for this time around. Dean's strategy from the start has been: Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. A win there will propel him into national headlines and likely make him a strong competitor if not inevitable candidate for the nomination.

[NHI]

Round 10: January 2-3, 2008

Down to the wire before the Iowa Caucuses and the candidates are canvassing the state and making the final visits to all ninety-nine counties. The latest poll from the Des Moines Register show Howard Dean maintaining his narrow lead. Evan Bayh is coming in second with Hillary Clinton making a strong push for third, breaking nearly 20 percent in the poll. Lincoln comes up in a close fourth, but has been laying a strong ground game in Iowa and is expected by many to possibly be the surprise candidate.

Iowa Caucuses Democratic Preference Poll

Howard Dean: 23.7%

Evan Bayh: 21.8%
Hillary Clinton: 19.7%
Blanche Lincoln: 19.1%
John Kerry: 11.0%
Undecided: 4.7%

On the Republican side, barring a truly late surge by Governor Sanford, President Giuliani is fully expected to cruise to an easy and significant victory of his Republican challenger. The President and his team are confident with the polls numbers; even touting their internals which show Giuliani up by nearly forty points. The latest Des Moines Register Poll puts Giuliani ahead with a healthy lead.

That has not stopped Sanford, who continues to campaign across the state, saying to his supporters: The caucus is coming, ladies and gentlemen. My only question to you is: Are you ready? It's easy to be discouraged by a couple of polls, but what I see here on the ground shows a much different picture than what the pollsters are saying. Conservatives are motivated, and we're going to show President Giuliani and his cronies that you can't ignore us for much longer! We won't just exceed talking heads' expectations--we'll win this thing!"

Iowa Caucuses: Republican Preference Poll

Rudy Giuliani: 62.9%
Mark Sanford: 33.3%
Undecided: 3.8%

This Round will close Tuesday at 11:59 pm EST...results will begin on Wednesday Morning.

[NHI]

Lincoln: The Fighter

Blanche Lincoln, the 2004 Democratic nominee is proving herself to be a viable candidate. No former  losing Vice Presidential candidate has gone onto win the nomination let alone the election since 1932...with that candidate being FDR. Lincoln however is picking up support and gaining ground in the crucial state of Iowa which many see as the test to determine her longevity as a candidate. She's really surprised a lot of people with her superb ground game and strong debate performance. Political experts call her the wild card for the caucuses, and believe if she doesn't win, she'll very likely be in the top three.