Absurd

[NHI]

2016

...

"For the United States of America, the best is yet to come."
-- President Barack Obama, Election Night 2012

"...And we are now ready to project Bernie Sanders, has won the New Hampshire Primary. 77 percent of the vote reported, Senator Sanders will defeat Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the First in the Nation Primary."

√ Projected Winner: Bernie Sanders 42%,  Defeats Hillary Clinton

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats (77% Reported)

√ Bernie Sanders: 42.2%

Hillary Clinton: 37.2%
Martin O'Malley: 10.9%
Jim Webb: 6.7%
Lincoln Chaffee: 1.6%
Other: 1.4%

"...We cannot report a winner on the Republican side. Now with 71 percent reported, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, continues to hold onto his narrow lead, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie running a strong second and Senator Marco Rubio finishing a distant third place..."

Too Close to Call: Paul 26%  Christie: 24%

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans (71% Reported)

Rand Paul: 26.7%

Chris Christie: 24.4%
Marco Rubio: 15.0%
Scott Walker: 9.7%
Jeb Bush: 6.2%
Rick Santorum: 6.0%
Lindsey Graham: 4.4%
George Pataki: 3.8%
John Kasich: 2.7%
Other: 1.3%
Carly Fiorina: 1.0%

LIVE: Senator Sanders' Victory Speech from Hanover, NH

"...Tonight! Tonight, we've done some rather extraordinary and it is because of the people in this room, not just the people in this room. People across this state by the thousands, from the cities of Manchester and Portsmouth and Concord to the little towns of Colebrook and Hampton and Exeter. Tonight, we've a clear and unapologetic message to the establishment class and the billionaire class on Wall Street. You cannot buy an election, Wall Street does not decide the outcome of election, Main Street does and tonight the people have spoken and the people have won...Now has I've said throughout this campaign this election is not about Bernie Sanders - it's not about Hillary Clinton, it is about all of you, it is about the middle class and what kind of country we can have and build together, where there is equality for all, not some, -- for all. The working people of this country have been forgotten about. They've been abandon, their voices are no longer heard, well America is waking up, we're hearing the voices again and they're saying, enough is enough, it is time to take our country back and it started tonight right here in New Hampshire!"

Absurd
~ The 2016 Election ~

[NHI]

1. Things Fall Apart

"...Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is our projected winner in the Iowa Caucus."

√ Projected Winner: Sen. Rick Santorum 21%  Marco Rubio: 18%

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans (86% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 21.5%
Marco Rubio: 18.4%
Scott Walker: 13.0%
Rand Paul: 11.9%
Ted Cruz: 7.4%
Ben Carson: 6.6%
Chris Christie: 5.9%
Jeb Bush: 5.3%
Rick Perry: 3.3%
Carly Fiorinia: 2.9%
John Kasich: 1.0%
Lindsey Graham: 1.0%
Other: 0.8%
Bob Ehrlich: 0.8%
George Pataki: 0.4%

Rick Santorum, trumped early favorite to win Iowa, Scott Walker. The 2012 winner, relied on his support from Evangelicals to push him over the top to win the Caucus state. Iowa '08 winner Mike Huckabee ended his campaign in the fall of 2015, after poor fundraising and polling and endorsed Santorum, giving him a clear shot at taking the state and it paid off. Still, a win with only 21% in a crowded field was hardly seen as running away with it. Santorum faced stiff competition from Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who in the wake of Jeb Bush's crumbling campaign attempted to assume the mantle as the establishment pick. Scott Walker, (equally admired by those in the establishment) tried to assume the conservative mantle, but his campaign's overconfidence in Iowa betrayed them and Santorum's come from behind strategy paid off and now the Republican field is completely turned on its head, going into New Hampshire.

Santorum, the runner up to 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, hoped the Republican Party's orthodoxy of going with the previous runner up would help him find a path to the nomination, coupled with winning Iowa, he felt his chances were golden, but the Republican Party of 2016 was not the party of the past and Santorum, even after winning Iowa found himself struggling with support in New Hampshire and beyond. Despite, Santorum's come from behind victory the media dubbed Rubio, the big winner coming out Iowa and Walker the loser. The Wisconsin Governor staked his whole primary campaign on Iowa and a dismal third place showing gave him very few options.

Long shots and fringe candidates found their way to the exit doors after Iowa. Dr. Ben Carson, announced he was dropping out during his concession speech, but did not endorse a candidate. Former Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich dropped out the day after Iowa and endorsed Marco Rubio. Texas Senator and conservative firebrand, hoped a strong showing in Iowa would revive his sagging Presidential campaign, but his fifth place showing behind Rand Paul dashed any hopes of a comeback. After months of fundraising struggles the Texas Senator called it quits and returned home to Texas. "We gave it our best, but in the end it was not enough."

"...We are now ready to project Hillary Clinton, win prevail in the Iowa Caucuses. The former Secretary of State will win the close contest here in Iowa."

√ Projected Winner: Hillary Clinton: 39%  Bernie Sanders: 34%

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats (81% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 39.7%
Bernie Sanders: 34.2%
Martin O'Malley: 12.9%
Jim Webb: 8.9%
Lincoln Chaffee: 2.4%
Other: 1.9%

Hillary Clinton, was seen as the Democratic favorite to win the nomination and the general election. The former Secretary of State had the fundraising advantage, the name recognition advantage and political advantage that most believed she would win the nomination in a cakewalk. However, a rough start to campaign, coupled with increasing questions over her time as Secretary of State, the Clinton Foundation and her own trustworthiness gave her opponents, particularly Bernie Sanders and opening. The Vermont Senator, launched his long shot bid against all odds, but in the wake of what the media dubbed "The Clinton Crumble" Bernie Sanders looked to pick up the pieces and position himself as Clinton's one and only competitor.

Martin O'Malley, for all the hype surrounding his campaign failed to catch fire and even though he scored a few points in his debates with Clinton, including a knock against political dynasties, he was largely written by the media and Democratic voters and his campaign struggled to find its footing as 2016 dawned.

Bernie Sanders looked to get to Clinton's left on issues of trade, campaign finance and Wall Street reform. Elizabeth Warren's decision not to run created an opening for Sanders to assume the populist mantle, or as he spoke on the campaign trail, "I am here to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic party," Sanders could not compete with Clinton with money, but he could challenge her on ideas and enthusiasm. Polls showed a close race heading into Iowa and the thought of many in the media was if Sanders had another week, he could have won the Caucuses, still only losing by five points to Clinton was seen as a major victory his campaign and many in the media began to see Clinton's showing not merely as a crumble, but a potential and perhaps likely collapse.


Coming out of Iowa, Clinton saw a shrinking lead in New Hampshire. Bernie Sanders was ready for a fight. Senator Rand Paul was ready to tussle with Governor Chris Christie, who staked his entire campaign on a win in New Hampshire, a la John McCain. Scott Walker's goose appeared cooked. Jeb Bush, already was history. Marco Rubio looked to South Carolina and beyond. The public fastened their seat belts. The Election, had only just begun.

2. New Hampshire Stands with Rand and Bernie

"...New Hampshire has a history of toppling frontrunners and giving way to underdogs. We project Senator Rand Paul has now won the New Hampshire primary."

√ Projected Winner: Rand Paul 26%  Chris Christie: 24%

"Ihave a message, a message which is heard from coast to coast, starting in Iowa, now here in New Hampshire and soon to all fifty states and the message is loud and clear: We, are ready to take our country back!"

Post Bridge-gate Chris Christe's chances of being the Republican nominee were always slim to none. The Governor once seen as the Republican Party's savior, was hindered by whispers of corruption and tainted by scandal. The New Jersey Governor, ran a small campaign, focusing squarely on New Hampshire. The state proved a successful stomping ground for John McCain in 2000 and 2008 and Christie believed his straight talk, tell it like it is personality would serve him well in New Hampshire and for a while it seemed to be working.

Jeb Bush could not escape the weight of his brother and family name, as well as his own shortcomings as a candidate. His unapologetic embrace of common core and immigration reform hurt him with the base and despite a stellar fundraising effort, Bush became defined early by the media and his opponents as an aloof candidate, running entirely on his family brand. During a debate Rand Paul lambasted the former Florida Governor as "an embodiment of everything the Republican Party is trying to shake itself of, war, family linage, cronyism." Tough words, but they hurt. The collapse of Bush, which began in earnest back in the spring of 2015, reached a climax in the late fall of 2015 and by Iowa Bush had fallen to single digits and continued to drop. He hope to recharge his campaign in Florida, but with poor showings in the important early states many doubted he could have a comeback.

Christie seized on Bush's collapse and concentrated his efforts on New Hampshire's independent nature and open primary status. Over the course of eight months Christie held over 100 town halls in the state, repeatedly calling New Hampshire, his "second home state." Some polls gave him a slight edge, but Paul had worked in building up a solid infrastructure in the state, taking what his father had done in both 2008 and 2012 and expanding it. Next to Christie he was the only candidate to make the most frequent stops in New Hampshire and it paid off. While close and narrow Paul won the first in the nation primary. Christie's presidential dream came to sad end, and New Hampshire once again proved itself to be a state that will surprise the nation - every four years.

No bigger surprise came when Hillary Clinton lost to Bernie Sanders, from neighboring Vermont. Polls showed Sanders closing in on Clinton, and her narrow win in Iowa hit that narrative home, but the Clinton campaign believed New Hampshire would pull through for them. It was the state that made Bill Clinton "The comeback kid" in 1992 and revived Hillary's own campaign after a stunning loss to Barack Obama in 2008. Clinton banked on New Hampshire and its long affinity with the Clinton's but the state had changed in eight years -- it had change in twenty-four years. Clinton suffered the political consequences of being denied victory in New Hampshire. She took the state for granted and came up short, enough to give Bernie Sanders the kind of momentum his campaign needed, underscoring that going out of New Hampshire the race for the Democratic nomination would be a two person contest. Clinton vs. Sanders.

Dropouts after New Hampshire:
Republicans: George Pataki (endorsed Marco Rubio), John Kasich (did not endorse)
Democrats: Lincoln Chaffee (endorsed Bernie Sanders), Jim Webb (endorsed Hillary Clinton)

Gallup Democratic Primary Poll: Clinton: 44%  Sanders: 35% 

[NHI]

This is really, really, really good!

Thanks, I appreciate it!

[NHI]

3. Abandon Ship

Lindsey Graham ran for President to make National Security a top priority in the campaign -- and he also ran for President to go after Rand Paul. Throughout the primary season, leading up to the first vote Graham repeatedly blasted Paul for his foreign policy views, calling him "to the left of Barack Obama". During one heated exchange in New Hampshire, back in the fall of 2015 Graham attacked Paul for believing in "strength through appeasement," leading Paul to retort by saying, "Senator, your policy is to begin a third war in the middle east, and I would ask you how did the previous workout for us, not too well, if I might add."

Still Graham for all his bluster and bull was a long shot candidate, at best. Merely serving a purpose to go after Paul and divide the field in South Carolina. Despite, his perceived home court advantage Graham struggled to fend off Rubio and Walker in early polls. Graham and his campaign knew any success or failure rested on winning South Carolina, his home state. Prior to his collapse, Jeb Bush decided to write off South Carolina and instead focus on Iowa, New Hampshire and the states that would follow afterwards, though like the entire Bush campaign it would prove to be a rather huge mistake.

Coming out of New Hampshire, Chris Christie found his campaign off life support and fading. The once prominent and massive field had thinned down to only seven candidates, with Christie waffling about competing in South Carolina. Publicly, he vowed to fight on. His narrow second place finish to - Rand Paul showed his campaign had been revived and there was justification to at least try for the gold once more, but privately Christie and his campaign aides knew the race was over. They needed a win in New Hampshire, and despite Paul's narrow margin of victory, second was not first. Christie had bet the farm on New Hampshire and lost.

Santorum positioned himself as the true conservative in the race. A patron saint of the Evangelical wing, battled tested from the culture wars and ready to keep up the fight, especially following the Supreme Court's landmark decision over marriage equality, and he could also position himself as Republican who could take a populist fight against Hillary Clinton, in a way no other candidate could in the field. Santorum, the second place finisher and certain winner of the Iowa Caucuses in 2016 saw himself as the candidate who could run as the alternative to Marco Rubio, the all but inevitable establishment choice and Rand Paul, the libertarian.

Many in the press doubted Santorum having broad appeal, however, as the field began to shrink the impossibility of Santorum rising, began to be reevaluated. For whatever reason, Bush, like Christie remained in the fight after New Hampshire, hoping to make a strong showing in South Carolina, but by this point the pundits and Republican voters had written off him and his campaign. This left Walker, but his third place finish in Iowa crushed any dreams he might have had of winning the Republican nomination. He remained in the race after New Hampshire and arrived in South Carolina for a day of campaigning, but after one day back on the trail, returned home to Wisconsin, where he pulled the plug on his campaign. Walker, announced he would endorsing potentially after South Carolina and at the latest before the March 1st contests. Many were shocked over Walker's spectacular flop, but some political veterans surmised his campaign as "a flash in the pan, nothing more and nothing less."

No surprise Carly Fiorina ended her campaign for President after finishing last in New Hampshire. Out of six debates, during the primary, she appeared in three and failed to make the cut off for the next three. Her potential nomination was always unlikely, she merely served (or tried to) as a foil for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, the only other woman in the race for President. Her departure was with little fanfare or notice. She quietly endorsed Marco Rubio and strangely enough, at least for a few weeks was mentioned as a potential running mate for the eventual nominee, but that speculation too ended rather quickly.

In the end Graham, won his home state of South Carolina with 33 percent of the vote. Marco Rubio was the runner up with 25 percent. Graham, thanked his supporters in a primary night rally -- the high watermark of his campaign. He, in all actuality never expected to win. He did carry his home state, and while he would remain in the race for a few a little while longer, Graham had served his purpose and South Carolina, like in 2012 would prove irrelevant in selecting the eventual Republican nominee.

South Carolina Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Lindsey Graham: 33.6%
Marco Rubio: 25.4%
Rick Santorum: 14.8%
Rand Paul: 12.5%
Jeb Bush: 6.8%
Chris Christie: 5.8%
Other: 1.1%

Christie Steps Aside, Clears Way for Rubio

Christie's exit came as no surprise. He withdrew after his last place showing in South Carolina and endorsed Marco Rubio, another clear sign of the establishment's embrace of the Florida Senator. Christie's departure left Bush as the only-quasi establishment candidate, and many party elders even began to call on Bush to bow out gracefully, rather than to embarrass himself any further. Bush, his poll numbers shrinking, fundraising drying out, despite still sitting on a healthy campaign war chest, could have backed out and thrown his support behind the only plausible candidate, Marco Rubio, but he remained in the race, In a public statement, Bush announced he would be reevaluating his presidential campaign, but intended to campaign in Nevada and at the very least until the March 1st contests. As had been happening for months, no one gave his campaign a chance.

Bernie rattled the political establishment, with his still earth shaking defeat of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, of all place. To his campaign and to much in the media Hillary's slip in the Granite State caused many to wonder, if she can lose to him there, where else could she lose? After New Hampshire, came South Carolina, like John McCain in 2000, a site of political bad memories. Bill Clinton hated the state and its primary, never quite forgiving the Obama campaign and its surrogates for insinuating he, of all people was a racist. Though Hillary had been doing her best to mend fences in the state and hoped that after eight years she would be able to glide into the state and secure a healthy win.

Only three Democratic candidates arrived in South Carolina, after New Hampshire. Jim Webb and Lincoln Chaffee bid adieu and Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland Governor hoped to revive his campaign with a strong showing in the Palmetto State -- no one was betting on an O'Malley resurgence, or for that matter a surge at all. From the launch of his campaign in May 2015, he lagged behind Sanders and Clinton, generally garnering high single digits. His double digits showing in Iowa would be the best performance for his campaign.

Eight years after Barack Obama cleaned her clock by more than 20 points, Hillary made South Carolina, Clinton Country. She earned a nine point win over Bernie Sanders and reclaimed the narrative of a campaign on the ropes.

South Carolina Primary: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 48.7%
Bernie Sanders: 39.9%
Martin O'Malley: 10.6%
Other: 0.8%

Martin O'Malley would soon be gone, but Bernie Sanders would not be going anywhere fast, but at least for the moment Hillary Clinton was back on top and ready for the fight ahead with Sanders. "South Carolina knows I do not quit easily," Hillary told her supporters. "I keep getting up and fighting on."

Next stop was Nevada for the presidential candidates. A state Rand Paul banked on another win. The decision to preserve the state as a caucus, rather than become a primary was seen as an early roadblock for the Bush campaign and a boost for Rand Paul. The Kentucky Senator made a strong push in the state and it paid off, handsomely. He won the Nevada Caucuses with 39 percent of the vote, coming way ahead of Marco Rubio who finished second with only 24 percent of the vote.

Despite Bush's presence in the race, Marco Rubio was for all intents and purposes the establishment pick, but after his bruising defeat to Paul in Nevada, coupled by a less than stellar second place finish in South Carolina, many were beginning to question and openly doubt if Rubio had the chops necessary. His youth and vigor were seen as assets in the beginning, but as time wore on those assets were beginning to be seen as liabilities. One veteran Republican campaign operative believed, "Clinton would wipe the floor up with Rubio, hands down. He looks like a boy playing President, she looks like the President." Even in polling, Rubio struggle to maintain a clear lead or even establish a lead. Paul was a tenacious campaigner and intended to only grow his support, not shrink with it. With Rubio in trouble for the first in a long time and, certainly not for the last time, the words "Draft Romney" were uttered again, and again.

Nevada Caucuses: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 39.2%
Marco Rubio: 24.1%
Rick Santorum: 16.9%
Lindsey Graham: 9.5%
Jeb Bush: 8.7%
Other: 1.6%

[NHI]

3. Abandon Ship (Continued)

H[/i]illary Clinton, to her credit realized a mistake she made in 2008 was to write off the Caucuses, a decision which allowed Barack Obama to amass win after win, eventually toppling her inevitable candidacy. In 2016, she made sure to avoid such a crucial error, but still, Bernie Sanders was formidable opponent and unapologetic. Bernie, would not be HHS Secretary, and he certainly would not be VP. He was running with a mission, a man on a crusade, and he would not be stopped. His take no prisoners attitude paid off and while narrow he edged out Clinton in the Nevada Caucuses, which while the media dubbed a tie, Sanders declared himself two for two and tied with Mrs. Clinton.[/i]

Nevada Caucuses: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Bernie Sanders: 45.1%
Hillary Clinton: 44.0%
Martin O'Malley: 9.2%
Other: 0.8%

Hillary's campaign originally hoped New Hampshire was the one fluke. A mere showing by the Granite State that Democrats were not eager for a quick coronation. They got the message and campaigned hard in Nevada and South Carolina. It paid off in the latter and delivered a narrow loss in the former. It soon became clear, that may be New Hampshire was more than a fluke, may be New Hampshire represented something more. May be this race would not be a coronation, and may be there existed another Democratic nominee in 2016, other than Hillary Clinton.

[NHI]

4. The Long Haul

Hillary and Co. expected nominal challenges. They expected Bernie Sanders to be fun competition. They expected him to be gone by New Hampshire. They did not expect him to become stiff competition. They did not expect him to win New Hampshire. Hillary blitzed the twelve states voting on March 1st, with hefty ad buys and stops; many which included big delegate prizes. If Bernie wanted a fight, she would take it to him, but the MO of the Clinton campaign was not sudden death for the nomination, but all out destruction. An avalanche of money, burying the Sanders' campaign -- more actually blindsiding his campaign.

Yet Bernie was tenacious. He rose through from a small nobody to becoming a Mayor, and then a Congressman and ultimately a Senator, the longest serving Independent Senator to boot. He knew how to play the ground game. He knew how to organize. He may not have had Barack Obama's 2008 infrastructure, but he did have the passion of his supporters and he did have a message which resonated with many in the Democratic Party. Those who were at one point calling on Elizabeth Warren, found solace in Bernie Sanders.

The Warren run was something feared by the Clinton campaign from the start, and they made a conscious effort to neutralize her, by having Hillary get out ahead and stake position in the Elizabeth Warren wing of the party. Most doubted she would even run, but the thought of maybe terrified the Clinton Campaign and they considered her candidacy to be potent. When it became clear, that Elizabeth Warren would not run for President, feeling her position was best served in the United States Senate, both Clinton and Sanders courted her endorsement, yes even Martin O'Malley met with her in Boston - for five minutes.

Warren, the champion of the working class admired Bernie Sanders and while she ultimately chose to stay neutral and not endorse either candidate, many close to her believed she found Sanders to be an acceptable and even better alternative to Hillary Clinton.

Bernie knew he could never compete with Hillary on the money level, but that was not his schtick. He was running on ideas. He was running with a vision. He would take his message anywhere and to anyone who would listen -- and did they listen. Crowds swarmed the Vermont Senator. At a rally in Colorado, right before the vote an estimate 5,000 people attended to hear him speak. As Chuck Todd described it, "he's not someone to be ignored and the Clinton Campaign knows it."

On March 1st, twelve states casts their votes from Vermont to Texas, and Hillary Clinton walked away the big winner, carrying eight states and a lead in the delegates. But, Bernie Sanders, again defied expectations. He won four states, along with his home state of Vermont (which he carried with 62% of the vote to Clinton's 28%). He also won blowouts in both Colorado and Minnesota; defeating Clinton by over ten points in both states. He also took  Massachusetts, in a surprise upset, winning it 49% to 46%, and kept the margins close in Virginia of all places. Hillary carried the states 49% to 43%.

His momentum undeniable. His support growing. At his victory rally in Burlington, VT, he pledged to fight on and saw his strong showing in the contests as a clear sign that his campaign not only had wings, but had taken flight and was "soaring across this great land." Adding to his glee, the first Gallup poll after March 1st showed Sanders narrowed the margin between him and Clinton to only five points. 43% for Hillary, 38% for Bernie.

The media's story after March 1st was that Bernie was still in the race for the Democratic nomination, despite Clinton's big win, including impressive victories in Texas (56% to 37%). Clinton also won big across the south, in large parts thanks to strong turnout from African-Americans, a voting group the Clinton campaign was desperate to hang onto, in the waning Obama years. She scored victories in Alabama and North Carolina, both states which went heavily for Obama eight years prior, and Clinton won them handily. The Clinton camp was declaring victory, but they knew they were only saying it to themselves. Sure, Martin O'Malley pulled up shop, but Bernie remained in the race and already thoughts of a 2008 replay, going all the way to June danced in the campaign's collective heads.

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Four days later, on Saturday March 5th Louisiana and Maine held their respective caucuses. Eight years prior, Hillary lost both to Obama and Hillary blitzed the two states. Polls showed Louisiana would be the safest, so the campaign put up shop in Maine and put her all over the state from Portland to Augusta, to Kittery to Bangor. When the votes were counted on that Saturday Clinton prevailed easily in Louisiana, beating Sanders 59% to 39%, but the state of Maine eluded Hillary once more and Sanders scored one of his biggest wins in the primary race. While Clinton largely focused on the big cities, Sanders had been crisscrossing the entire state for months, almost as frequently as he did in New Hampshire and it paid off -- handsomely.

Maine Caucuses: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Bernie Sanders: 57.81%%
Hillary Clinton: 42.02%
Uncommitted: 0.24%
Other: 0.01%

"He's not going anywhere," a Clinton aide said off the record, following their loss to Sanders in Maine. "And that's the problem. "We can go the long haul, but we'd rather avoid it, if at all possible."

Even as Hillary dealt with their growing and persistent challenge of Bernie Sanders, Republicans faced their own hurdles. The field was down to only Rubio, Paul, Santorum, Graham and Bush. Bush, everyone knew was on his way out and even though he vowed to remain in until March 1st, many believed he would likely call it quits before any votes were cast. Even in the field Bush was a non-starter, that left Graham, the winner in South Carolina and neo-con in the race, Rubio the emerging establishment choice, who had yet to win a single contests, Santorum, the conservative populist firebrand, who defied the odds to win Iowa; again, and last, but not least the libertarian and GOP contrarian  Rand Paul, the winner of both New Hampshire and Nevada. Th field readied for a showdown on March 1st, one which see the long awaited exit of Jeb Bush and the further fracturing of the Republican Party.

Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Lindsey Graham

[NHI]

5. The Power of Paul

"Another win for Rand Paul!"

Rand Paul. The junior Senator from Kentucky. The libertarian candidate. The heir to the Ron Paul throne. The thorn to the Republican establishment. The rebel. Rand Paul entered the 2016 race an underdog, but certainly not a second rate underdog. Paul quickly proved in financing and in support he could compete with the Republican heavyweights and win places Republicans could only dream of winning. He bet his political life on New Hampshire and it paid off, setting him on a blazing path to take Nevada and on March 1st, despite an onslaught of money being spent against him, particularly from Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham, Paul emerged the winner on March 1st, carrying five of the ten voting states.

Colorado Caucuses: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 37.1%
Marco Rubio: 27.9%
Rick Santorum: 25.6%
Lindsey Graham: 7.9%
Other: 1.5%

Minnesota Caucuses: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 39.9%
Rick Santorum: 29.9%
Marco Rubio: 21.2%
Lindsey Graham: 6.1%
Other: 2.9%

Massachusetts Primary: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 46.5%
Marco Rubio: 29.9%
Lindsey Graham: 13.3%
Rick Santorum: 9.1%
Other: 1.1%

Vermont Primary: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 48.0%
Marco Rubio: 29.9%
Lindsey Graham: 8.1%
Rick Santorum: 6.4%
Other: 3.6%

Virginia Primary: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 32.2%
Marco Rubio: 31.9%
Rick Santorum: 18.1%
Lindsey Graham: 15.8%
Other: 3.0%

Rand Paul's winning edge came narrowly close and much of it hinged on Jeb Bush. Bush's candidacy sank faster than a ball and chain in a pool, but for namesake, for image sake, perhaps, he kept in the race, even as his chances dimmed more and more. He finished last in Nevada, but vowed to remain in the race through March 1st, but as the polls showed him increasingly dropping, he decided to abandon ship and reluctantly and perhaps bitterly accepted the inevitable and endorsed Marco Rubio on the eve of the vote.

Bush's delay no doubted hurt Rubio and denied him a potential sweep on March 1st. In the end Rubio only carried Tennessee (defeating Santorum, his closest competitor 35.0% to 33.9%) and Texas (37% for Rubio, 34% for Paul). Rick Santorum, performed better than expected, winning two states, Georgia (39% for Santorum, 35% for Rubio) and Oklahoma (41% for Santorum, 35% for Rubio). Lindsey Graham, even secured a second and final win of the primary season. In North Carolina, he narrowly prevailed over Rubio and Santorum, winning the state with only 30% of the vote. Rubio finished second with 29%.

Paul walked away the big winner of the night and the establishment shuttered at his surging campaign. Realizing he could go no further, Lindsey Graham ended his bid for the Presidency and backed Rubio immediately. While he could no longer offer slingshot attacks at Paul from inside the race, he continued on the outside and began his bid in earnest for Vice President.

The attacks on Paul continued from both Santorum and Rubio, the only two competitor left in the once massive Republican field. Rubio, the establishment choice, Paul the insurgent and Santorum the conservative crusader. From the outside, the likes of Peter King, John McCain, Kelly Ayotte and other piled on Paul, blasting his views on foreign policy as extreme and to the left of Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton. During a campaign stop in Louisiana, Marco Rubio even said, "I think America will be more unsafer and the world much more dangerous if Rand Paul were to win the nomination and the Presidency. We've seen uncertainty for the last seven years under Barack Obama, it could only be worse with a President Paul."

Paul wore the attacks like badge of honor and blasted the GOP establishment and remaining Republican rivals as being warmongers and fear stokers. While campaigning in Ohio, Paul blasted Rubio and Santorum by name, calling them out for being "out step with many people who have been turned off by the Republican Party over the years and being out of step with the greater country at large." Polls showed a tightening race, despite assuming the conservative mantle, as well as being the last man standing, Santorum polled third behind Paul, who kept it close with Rubio, who struggled to find his footing on uncertain ground, even as a groundswell of support and money came tumbling his way.

Unsurprisngly 2012 Republican nominee and Republican statesman Mitt Romney rallied around Marco Rubio and endorsed his candidacy after months of sitting on the sidelines. He reportedly planned to endorsed Bush from the start, but as his candidacy floundered and flamed out, Romney withdrew and watched the field, keeping an eye on Rubio and Chris Christie, before his dream ended too. Romney's backing of Rubio was the final seal of approval from the establishment and the Florida Senator was ready to go the distance. Santorum cried foul, saying "once again the establishment and elites are trying to select the nominee." Paul joined in the jeers, only in his remarks saying, "it has been clear for sometime that Marco Rubio is the choice of party elders and political bosses, while our campaign is one of the grassroots and people. The election is a choice between the status quo and continuing with it, or breaking from it and starting something new. I believe the American people are ready to try something new. To make a fresh start. I am confident we will prevail and come July we will have a united party ready to take on Hillary Clinton or whomever the Democrats decide to nominate."

On March 5th, the Republicans held contests in three states: Wyoming, Maine and Louisiana. Marco Rubio hoped to emerge the victory in at least two of the three states, setting him up big for the states like Ohio on March 8th, but it was not to be the case. Santorum was the favorite in Wyoming (he beat Rubio 44% to 30%), and in Louisiana (he won 40% to 36%). Santorum, kept hope alive for the conservative Evangelical wing of the party and vowed to press on. "We've got the momentum," he declared in New Orleans.

In Maine, like it was Sanders Country for Bernie, Paul proved to have what it takes to win Maine. He carried the Caucuses easily, beating both Santorum and Rubio by 10 and 15 points respectively. Rubio continued to struggled, a curse which had befallen many of the GOP candidates in '16. In a normal primary, Paul and Santorum would be swept up and left behind stranded in the dust, but '16, and it had been seen on both the left and right was anything but a normal year.

Rand Paul: 230
Rick Santorum: 163
Marco Rubio: 194
Lindsey Graham: 30

[NHI]

6. The Center Holds

"Enough is enough! We are handing this election to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. It is time to rally behind the clear, consensus candidate and elect Marco Rubio as our nominee."

The backing of Marco Rubio by Ohio Governor John Kasich, was seen as a big boost for his campaign heading into the Ohio primary. Rubio had been struggling for weeks as the newly minted Republican frontrunner and needed a big win, but in the state of Ohio Rick Santorum was running strong. He nearly took the state from Mitt Romney and a victory would have likely have derailed his campaign and put Santorum on the path to the nomination. Four years hence, a loss for Rubio in Ohio would be the end of his campaign once and for all.

The problem wasn't only in Ohio, but neighboring Michigan, where Santorum was running far ahead of Rubio. Rubio touched down in the state and spent the final leg of the campaign before the vote crisscrossing back and forth. The focus on Rubio and Santorum in the midwest heartland put Rand Paul out of the spotlight. He polls numbers dwindled in both states, and running low on fiances he took to campaigning in the Hawaii and Kansas Caucuses, but the focus on the two other candidates drowned out Paul and on March 8th, he won only Hawaii. Paul did perform better in Michigan and narrowly lost the state.

Rubio was often talked about as the savior of the Republican Party. His young visage, coupled with Cuban roots made him an almost tailored made candidate for a party looking to redefine itself for a new generation and new century. Rubio was powerful on the stump and could deliver a speech, but overall he proved a lousy campaigner. He entered the race with great expectations, but then took a backseat, as Jeb Bush and Scott Walker battled out for the frontrunner status. The slow decline and decay of both the Bush and Walker campaigns projected Rubio into center stage, but the GOP's golden boy seemed unprepared for his sudden place as the defacto leader of the party. He struggled to keep his campaign operation together, during the battle of looking to win over Republican voters, while at the same time keeping one eye on the Democrats and the general election. It was a disaster to say the least.

Santorum's return in Iowa and come from behind strategy he had been playing all along paid off. He asserted himself as the conservative populist in the race, while also making the strong pitch that as the runner up in 2012, he was next in line for the nomination. A strong fight persisted between the two campaigns over Ohio and Michigan, but Santorum, better equipped to talk economic populism, while preaching conservative values seemed to pay off and once again the former Pennsylvania Senator surprised his opponents and the pundits.

March 8th Vote:

Ohio Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 36.8%
Marco Rubio: 34.0%
Rand Paul: 28.9%
Other: 0.2%

Michigan Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 35.5%
Rand Paul: 33.9%
Marco Rubio: 30.1%
Other: 0.5%

Kansas Caucus: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 39.5%
Marco Rubio: 33.9%
Rand Paul: 26.3%
Other: 0.3%

Alabama Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 41.2%
Marco Rubio: 37.7%
Rand Paul: 20.4%
Other: 0.7%

Mississippi Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Marco Rubio: 40.0%
Rick Santorum: 39.4%
Rand Paul: 20.3%
Other: 0.3%

Hawaii Caucus: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 49.1%
Marco Rubio: 29.8%
Rick Santorum: 21.0%
Other: 0.1%

Paul had one thing going for him after March 8th, he was not Marco Rubio and despite his surge the Republican Party seemed unlikely to nominate Rick Santorum. Paul had hoped for a better showing, but his campaign pressed on, instead looking to Missouri and Illinois the following week and Puerto Rico a few days later. As for Marco Rubio, having only narrowly prevailed in Mississippi and lost everywhere else, there was very little justification for a further continuation of his candidacy. Party insiders remarked, "if he's losing to Rick Santorum and Rand Paul, how do you think he is going to fare against Hillary or Sanders?" The fear that Rubio, while charismatic was still wet behind the ears and flashbacks of his infamous water bottle incident kept reoccurring over and over. The party was in trouble -- there was no clear nominee and with it too late for a draft movement, the prospects of a brokered convention seemed more plausible than ever!

Rand Paul: 276

Rick Santorum: 273

Marco Rubio: 261

Gallup Republican Primary Poll: March 11, 2016

Marco Rubio: 33%
Rick Santorum: 31%
Rand Paul: 30%
Undecided: 6%

Gallup General Election Poll: March 11, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 46% (+5)

Marco Rubio: 41%

Bernie Sanders: 44%
Marco Rubio: 45% (+1)

Hillary Clinton: 47% (+6)
Rick Santorum: 41%

Bernie Sanders: 44% (+1)
Rick Santorum: 43%

Hillary Clinton: 46% (+1)
Rand Paul: 45%

Bernie Sanders: 45%
Rand Paul: 45%

[NHI]

7. No Prisoners

"Bernie Sanders will win big tonight!"

"This campaign has been growing from city to city, town to town, state to state. It is a message that resonates with middle income and working families. It is a winning message and it is why we have succeeded tonight and it is why we're going to win!"

Hillary Clinton knew she was in trouble. Exit polls in Michigan and Ohio showed her narrowly ahead or tied with Bernie Sanders. Days before most polls showed her with a clear lead, but it was not the case as the votes came in. Panic set in on the Clinton campaign as an avalanche of Sanders support toppled their way, pushing and crushing what infrastructure and months of groundwork they left in the states. When the dust settled, the campaign team looked each other, dazed and confused. "Did Bernie Sanders really do that?" The better question, was "How?"

Ohio Primary: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 50.01%
Bernie Sanders: 49.68%
Other: 0.31%

Michigan Primary: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Bernie Sander: 50.87%

Hillary Clinton: 48.55%
Other: 0.58%

The almost loss in Ohio showed Sanders had staying power, but Michigan was bigger problem and headline of the night. Sanders relentlessly went after Clinton for being indecisive on the issue of trade, as well as drawing focus to her record as Secretary of State, especially the sale of a Michigan company to China, which was overseen during her tenure. The effort by Sanders paid off and Clinton stumbled.

The former Secretary of State, did head into March 9th, with some dignity. She prevailed in Mississippi and Hawaii, but the defeats in Michigan and near loss in Ohio burned her. Already, many in the media wrote off her candidacy as being at an end. The momentum belonged to Sanders and no matter how unlikely or implausible it seemed, Hillary Clinton appeared to be on the verge of a second primary loss to an insurgent candidate.  The Sanders campaign basked in the glow of its growing support and new found momentum. He prevailed in the Kansas, beating Clinton 54% to 45%. In the Clinton campaign, gloom, despair, but also focus. They treated Sanders with kid gloves up until that point, but no longer. As Clinton supposedly said to an adviser following the March 8th,

"Destroy him." -- Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

[NHI]

8. Her Time

Hillary Clinton is anything, if not a fighter. Her fortitude during the 2008 Primaries earned her supporters and admirers from both sides of the aisle. She earned the respect of rival, then Senator and future President Barack Obama. Tenacious. Hard nosed and driven. Hillary showed she could go the distance in 2008 and in the wake of Bernie Sanders, another insurgent liberal candidate, he was determined to go even further, though this time remain the last one standing. Following her bruising bash with Bernie on March 8th, Clinton recovered and won Puerto Rico (61% to 39%) and she assailed Sanders heading into the vote on March 15th, drawing comparison to 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who before he secured the nomination buried fellow challengers Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in a barrage of ad buys, outpacing his Republican rivals 3-1.

Sanders had momentum after Michigan and was closing strong in both Florida and Illinois, but Hillary was not going to let him gain another inch.

"She's in the fight of her life." -- Chuck Todd

"...now or never for Hillary Rodham Clinton. This is big." -- Chris Matthews

"She is going as hard against him as she did against Barack Obama in '08." -- Joe Scarborough

Hillary's trump card, or strongest hand was electability. She blasted Sanders as a "shouter" and presented herself as a "doer". She served as Secretary of State, he served comfortably in the Senate. "When has Senator Sanders led? I've led and I will lead."

Out spent and outpaced, Sanders remained unchanged. "I have never run a never ad and I never will." He relied on grassroots support, hoping to spurn Clinton that way. "Money does not buy elections. It buys influence and corrupts our elections." While polls showed a tight race in both Florida and Illinois, when the votes were in and counted, Clinton emerged the victor. She was back in control, at least for the moment.

Illinois: Democratic Primary (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 51.8%
Bernie Sanders: 48.1%
Other: 0.1%

Florida: Democratic Primary (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 52.8%
Bernie Sanders: 46.9%
Other: 0.3%

Missouri: Democratic Primary (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 60.1%

Bernie Sanders: 39.8%
Other: 0.1%

Democratic Primary Poll: March 17, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Bernie Sanders: 40%

General Election Poll: March 17, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 47% (+6)

Marco Rubio: 41%

Hillary Clinton: 46% (+1)
Rand Paul: 45%

Hillary Clinton: 47% (+7)
Rick Santorum: 40%

Bernie Sanders: 45%
Marco Rubio: 46% (+1)

Bernie Sanders: 45%
Rand Paul: 46% (+1)

Bernie Sanders: 45% (+3)
Rick Santorum: 42%

"I'm being outspent, but our message is not fading and our support is not waning. I don't say this lightly. I would consider running as an independent in the general election, if I was unconvinced about our potential nominee's positions and views were reflective of our party and of the American people nationally." -- Bernie Sanders, on Meet The Press

[NHI]

9. Victory, Thy Name is Paul

Rand Paul knew in a crowded field he could break through the ranks and emerge as the nominee. In a jumbled and crowded field, his strategy appeared to be working. Candidates rose and fell. Frontrunner after frontrunner was anointed, then dethroned. Paul remained a constant. A consistent presence, working on growing his small band of conservative libertarians, while doing his best to pick up support from the likes of Ted Cruz and beyond. He scored three major victories which furthered cemented his ballooning status. He breezed past Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum in Alaska, winning with 48% of the vote. In Arizona, Paul edged out Rubio in a close contest, winning with 42% of the vote, to Rubio's 39% and in Illinois!

Rubio did score with victory, Utah. He won the contest with 44% of the vote. Santorum finished second with 34%. He had won a few weeks prior his home state of Florida, but by a closer margin than expected. Rubio: 46%, Paul: 32%, Santorum: 21%.

In the aftermath of double loss in Alaska and Arizona, Rubio's chances dimmed and many Republicans, who feared a brokered convention not only would damaged the party, but result in Rand Paul as the nominee, quietly and quickly began calling for a new candidate to enter the race before it was too late. Paul Ryan was batted around as a potential savior, as was John Thune. Even Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who had backed Rubio from the start began expressing doubts over the party's chances and even joked, "I'd jump in the race at this point." Republicans were panicking.

One week later, Rick Santorum was in the spotlight again, winning the Idaho Caucus with 40% of the vote. Rubio, not surprisingly finished third with only 25%. Rand Paul scored another win by taking the North Dakota caucus with a bruising 50% of the vote. Santorum finished second with 27% of the vote. Rubio limped out March, behind in delegates and the winner of only four states. His hope of any success lied in April, but with his poll numbers dropping Rubio looked poised for another bad month and very likely -- the end of his presidential bid.

Maryland delivered Rubio a big win at the start of April. He won the state with 43% of the vote. Paul finished second with only 34%. Washington, DC's primary went for Paul easily and the real fight was in Wisconsin. Santorum had spent the most time in the state of any candidates, and was hoping for a win. The endorsement of Walker was believed to help Rubio, but in the end he lost the primary and finished third. Paul finished a close second behind Santorum, who won the primary with 41% of the vote.

The next contests would not be until near the end of April. New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware. Santorum had a shot in Pennsylvania, while the rest were up for grabs. Paul focused extensively on the rich delegate state of New York, a state Rubio needed if he were to keep going.

Rick Santorum kept his presidential dream alive, by winning his home state of Pennsylvania. It would be his only win and strong finish of the night. The rest of the evening belong to Rubio and Paul. The Florida Senator won Delaware easily with 44% of the vote, but had a hard time closing the deal in Connecticut. He, ultimately won the state, but with a meager 39% of the vote; Paul finished second with 38%. Paul scored a win in Rhode Island, effectively making him the winner in all of New England - sans Connecticut. The real of the night, however was over New York.

Rubio had a slight advantage in money, but Paul boasted about having a better ground game. The polls showed a tight race from the start and by election night the race was too close to call. Rubio and Paul traded leads back and forth, shifting from 40 to 41% of the vote, but never higher. The networks projected Rubio the winner at 12:34 AM with 40.63% of the vote, but the AP refused to call the race, as Paul narrowly trailed in second with 40.59%. As Rubio prepared to declare victory and assume his position as the prohibitive frontrunner for the nomination, the major networks retracted their projection of New York and at 1:17 AM the AP declared that Marco Rubio had not won the primary, after all and that Rand Paul would narrowly prevail, with 40.64% of the vote. Rubio would finish second with 40.61%.

Paul's continued rise and Rubio' massive fall meant only one thing: a brokered convention was likely. The dream of all political pundits and Democrats. A nightmare for party officials and the candidates. Paul cruised out of the Empire State, in a New York State of mind and headed into May the frontrunner in the forthcoming states. His win in Washington, the following Saturday after New York further cemented his newly minted status.

Rubio vowed to remain in the race, until at least the first of May. Perhaps a stumble by Paul, or a win by Santorum in Indiana, would shake the race up again. It would not be the case. A few weeks later Marco Rubio was routed by Paul by 10 points. The Kentucky Senator won the primary easily, over his two remaining rivals (45%-35%-19%). The calendar was growing short and the biggest contests (California and New Jersey) would not be until June, and with Rubio's campaign on life support -- at best, the Florida Senator began to look at his options, none of which were positive.

Rand Paul: 581 of 1,144

Marco Rubio: 451 of 1,144
Rick Santorum: 420 of 1,144
452 Delegates remaining

Gallup Tracking Poll: Republican Nomination (May 5, 2016)

Rand Paul: 44%
Marco Rubio: 33%
Rick Santorum: 20%
Undecided: 3%

[NHI]

10. A Clinton State of Mind

Hillary Clinton was going to be the Democratic nominee, come hell or high water. The presumptive favorite in 2008 saw her hopes dashed by a rising upstart, named Barack Obama. 2016 lacked a rising upstart. The field did have Bernie Sanders, a favorite of the liberal populists, but he lacked the magic of Obama and funds to compete against Hillary. Hillary saw the leftward shift of the party and embraced it. Sure, Sanders pulled a few surprises against Clinton. He bested her in New Hampshire; a victory which kept his campaign alive. He carried a few key victories along the way and even as his three-state thumping in Florida, Illinois and Missouri, Bernie came back and defeated Clinton decisively in Wisconsin (56% to 44%).

Pennslyvania was seen as the make-or-break state for Bernie. A win there would prolong the Democratic primary and perhaps breach a floor fight at the convention. A loss, would cripple his campaign, effectively for good and cement Clinton in a strong status. Bernie played hard in the Keystone State, but in the end, Clinton won, just as she had eight years earlier and beat Bernie in a landslide (60% - 39%). Bernie won one more contests, after Pennsylvania; Oregon (50 to 49%), but his campaign for the lack of a better word, was over.

Believing it right to stay in and "finish what we started", Bernie Sanders did not drop out, but his campaign effectively ceased to exists. Clinton became the presumptive nominee in early May, as the Republican battered themselves senseless. Bernie officially, left the race in June, after California voted. He did not release his delegates as was expected, but any hopes of him being the Democratic nominee were put to rest. Now the decision remained over whether or not to run as an independent. Many of his supporters and staunchest advocates urged him to run third party, fearing Clinton would ignore the base of the party in the general, but Bernie realizing that while his campaign was over, the cause he championed was far from over.

The heart of the party may well have been with Bernie, but its head lied with Hillary, and for a party looking to capture a near unprecedented third term, Hillary offered the best shot at victory. Some felt the party should go for broke. The Republicans were royally divided and likely royally screwed in November, so the thought among Sanders' supporters was that the Democrats should take a chance on Bernie, but again, it would not be the case.

"I will not play a spoiler. I will not give the Republicans the White House for four to eight years. It would be politically irresponsible and suicide for America." -- Bernie Sanders.

√ Hillary Clinton: 57.50%

Bernie Sanders: 40.49%
Other: 2.01%

Bernie would offer an endorsement of Hillary, which reminded many pundits of John McCain's backing of George Bush in 2000. When pushed, Bernie fully declared, "Yes, I support Hillary Clinton to be the nominee and will urge people to vote for her to be the next President."

Her Time: 2016

[NHI]

11. Crushing Finale

Rand Paul held a lead in delegates. In the count of states won. His support among Republican voters as the top choice for the nomination. However, there was still uncertainty and lack of satisfaction over the prospects of a Rand Paul nomination. Jeb Bush, plausible. Scott Walker, plausible. Marco Rubio, plausible. Rick Santorum, somewhat plausible. Rand Paul, no way. But, Rand Paul was a man on a mission and to him, to tell with protocol, to hell with tradition. Essentially, to hell with the GOP.

Rand Paul readied his troops, but Rick Santorum was not finished yet. In May, he won West Virginia and Nebraska, easily trumping Paul and Marco Rubio and soon breezed past Rubio for second place in the delegate count. Rubio, struggled to put points on the board. The nomination was never going to be wrapped up in time, but at least some momentum would help his cause going into the convention, but the GOP golden boy continued to struggled and falter. Paul easily won his home state of Kentucky with 75 percent of the vote and won Oregon in a blowout as well (55%, Rubio: 31%, Santorum: 13%).

Santorum returned with another in later in May, narrowly edging out Rubio to win Arkansas (39%, Rubio: 34%, Paul: 26%). By June, Santorum had eclipsed Rubio for second place in most national polls, but his prospects for any big wins looked slim. Paul emerged the big winner, carrying the mega-rich delegate states of California and New Jersey over Rubio, as well as Montana and New Mexico. Santorum won only South Dakota.

Rand Paul: 930 of 1,144 (22 States carried + DC & Guam) 39.01% of the vote.

Rick Santorum: 540 of 1,144 (17 States carried) 29.89% of the vote.

Marco Rubio: 485 of 1,144 (8 States carried + American Samoa, Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands) 23.89% of the vote.

Lindsey Graham: 30 of 1,144 (2 States carried) 4.09% of the vote.

Other: 3.12%

For the first time in sixty-four years there was to be a brokered convention for a party's nomination. Rand Paul was only two-hundred votes shy of claiming of the nomination, but Santorum and Rubio were not backing down without a fight, and the Republican Party seemed more than reluctant to hand the party reins over to Rand Paul.

[NHI]

12. The Convention Day 1

"I think the nomination of Rand Paul would be suicide for the Republican Party and the country." -- John McCain

"Republicans have not been this split since Barry Goldwater, back in 1964, when the conservatives took over the convention and he became the nominee." -- Chuck Todd

Rand Paul, reveled in the political dysfunction. He was ahead in the delegates. He was ahead in states won. The nomination belong rightfully, to him. Republicans, however, were not about to turn over the nomination to anybody, especially after two bruising electoral losses to Barack Obama and the prospects of a third, concerned many over the thought that if Hillary Clinton did win the Republican Party would cease to exist. To many, the nomination of Rand Paul would only hasten that end.

The challnege was the remaining candidates. Marco Rubio, the once GOP golden boy and Rick Santorum lacked the political muscle to be declared winners on the first ballot. Even Rand Paul did not have that luxury. GOP chairman Priebus was irate. He was not about to let the Republican Party's inner turmoil and convention fight be broadcast on the nightly news and cable networks, in a time when the party needed to unite around a single candidate and take on Hillary Clinton. Day One was mired in political squabbles, without a result. No candidate was going to emerge the winner on the first ballot.

Rand Paul asserted his claim to the nomination. He had won the most states and nearly the majority of delegates to be nominated. He cajoled his fellow Republicans to step aside, but neither Santorum nor Rubio budged an inch.

The Rubio people looked to Santorum to release his delegates in support of Rubio, thereby putting him ahead of Paul in the delegate count and within spitting distance of the Republican nomination. However, Santorum, who had made an astonishing political resurrection, starting with his win in Iowa and then topping his wins in 2012, did not look to step aside, at least without a good reason. He, after all was second in the delegate count. He had won more states than Rubio. He was the one who should be asking Rubio to release his delegates. Deadlocked, the vote was poised to go on.

The lack of a clear or acceptable winner in the primary, forced many Republicans to call on, Mitt Romney once again, as the savior. His name was touted around through the primary process, an even DRAFT MITT movement started in the wake of Jeb Bush's collapse and Marco Rubio's stumbles, but Romney remained on the sidelines and seemed unlikely to step forward, unless it would be a certainty that he would win the Republican nomination, on the first ballot.

The first ballot was looking to produce no winner and the Republican Party began scrambling for another candidate, a dark horse perhaps. Paul Ryan? No. Mitch Daniels? Not a chance. Even, Chris Christie, a 2016 Presidential candidate flirted publicly with the idea of running from the convention floor. "I believe if we had enough momentum we could surprise everyone." It did not happen.

[NHI]

13. The Candidate

Republican Nomination: 1st ballot (2,286 Total Delegates)

Rand Paul: 930

Rick Santorum: 540
Marco Rubio: 485
Lindsey Graham: 30

The first ballot, as expected delivered no candidate with a majority of the vote, thereby opening a free-for-all. Lindsey Graham openly through his support behind Marco Rubio, calling him the strongest candidate and much "better than a President Paul". Still, Rick Santorum remained in the race, while some of his delegates flocked to both the Paul and Rubio camps. However, with the convention divided and a nominee unlikely to be produced on the second ballot, panic set in and GOP leaders began making the rounds to try and find a candidate to emerge 'from the floor'. John Thune's name was constantly batted around as a potential consensus pick. He even met with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie over the potential of forming a unity ticket, but not much came about of it.

Mitt Romney's name resurfaced time and again, but the former Massachusetts Governor ruled himself out as the candidate, even though this was the scenario he had been privately hoping for; regrettably there was not enough momentum and the delegates were all evenly divided between the three candidates.

http://nation.foxnews.com/sites/nation.foxnews.com/files/styles/story_624_300/public/rick_santorum_marco_rubio_636.jpg

Adraft candidate did emerge, finally in the wee hours of the second day. Paul Ryan, the 2012 Vice Presidential nominee and Wisconsin Congressman was touted as the savior of the party and the only candidate that could unite the party. Ryan, did not publicly accept, nor reject the DRAFT movement and thus his name was placed into nomination, along with Rubio, Paul and Santorum on the second ballot.

Political pundits gleamed over the GOP convention. A true brokered convention for the first time in decades; a convention which drew similarities to the Fictional Democratic Convention on the popular TV series, the West Wing; where Democrats went into their conventions without a clear choice for the nominee.

With Ryan's name on the ballot, the second vote was set to begin. Deals were made. Rooms filled with smokes. Balloons hung, ready to drop. Still, it remained unclear who would emerge the nominee on the second ballot...The entrance of Paul Ryan's name on the second ballot, was likely to shakeup the convention, though if in a good way remained to be seen.

Republican National Convention Presidential Nomination Vote: Second Ballot

Marco Rubio: 765 (33.43%)
Rand Paul: 749 (32.79%)
Paul Ryan: 590 (25.80%)
Rick Santorum: 175 (7.65%)
Abstain: 7 (0.33%)

Rubio emerged the frontrunner on the second ballot; though by a meager margin. Paul Ryan's who never formally acknowledge or disavowed the draft movement finished third on the second ballot, but did enough to weaken Paul and cipher off enough votes. Rick Santorum, the runner up in the delegates during the primary finished last, seeing much of his support fleet between Rubio and Ryan. He announced his full support of Marco Rubio to be the nominee and encourage his delegates on the second ballot to support the Florida Senator.

The trouble lied with Paul. His supporters cried fowl. They blamed Paul Ryan for drawing away votes and planned a walkout of the convention. As the third ballot was set to begin, each of the remaining candidates, those being Rand Paul and Marco Rubio were given ten minutes only to address the delegates and make their case for nomination.

Paul blasted the GOP establishment; Rubio pledged unity and went after HRC.

Republican National Convention Presidential Nomination Vote: Third Ballot

√ Marco Rubio: 1,441 (63.00%)

Rand Paul: 839 (36.70%)
Abstain: 6 (0.30%)

The Republican Nominee

Rubio originally looked to bring Paul into the fold; with even talk of the Vice Presidency, but the talks never made it off the ground. Paul insisted his name be placed in nomination; emboldened by having won the most states and majority of the delegates during the primaries. The final tally put Rubio well over the top to be the nominee and he selected fellow Ohio Governor and 2016 competitor John Kasich to be his running mate.

Disheartened, Paul refused to appear on stage with Rubio, in order to project an image of a united party. Instead, he bucked tradition, calling the whole process, "absurd" during an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper. He blasted the Republican Party for "following the orders of the hawks and the neocons" and "playing it safe with a nominee". Paul boldly predicted the ticket of Rubio/Kasich would lose to Hillary Clinton. "The Republicans have lost their way, once more." Paul lamented about the Libertarian Convention having come and gone two months ago, even going so far as to say, "I wish I could have had my name placed in nomination there; I'm quite confident I'd have won the first ballot, rather than have the nomination stolen from me."

When asked if Paul had any plans to endorse or appear with Rubio, he declined to answer. When asked if he would consider running as a third party, Paul blasted the idea, saying "it's too late and too hard to get on the ballot, but there are other ways of having influence."

Gallup Tracking Poll: July 22, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Marco Rubio: 36%
Undecided/Other: 14%

[NHI]

14. The VP

"While the Republicans are stuck talking about yesterday, we can't stop thinking about tomorrow." -- Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton reached the near pinnacle of her political career. All her hard work. Her dreams. Her ambitions. She was finally accepting the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. The Clinton Campaign ran a tight ship during the party's four day convention in Philadelphia. Chelsea would speak on the first night. Bernie Sanders would give the keynote address. The Vice Presidential nominee would speak on the third night, both Presidents Clinton, Obama and Hillary would speak on the last night.

The search for Hillary's VP began in earnest once the nomination was officially wrapped up, but the Clinton people, as well as Hillary herself began thinking as far back as the spring of 2015, just who the right candidate would be. All the usual suspects were mentioned, HUD Secretary Julian Castro, though while impressive and helpful with the Hispanic vote, Hillary believed he was not tested enough and could prove to be a Quasi-Sarah Palin. Next was Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, a respectable choice from a key state, but also a safe choice. There was Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, from the all-important state of Ohio, but not a particularly inspiring pick.

Sanders was mentioned once in conversation, but the campaign never seriously considered the idea, just as they never seriously considered Elizabeth Warren. Martin O'Malley's name appeared again and again, both in campaign circles and on the punditry tables, but Clinton despised O'Malley for running against her in 2016 and felt his tenure in Maryland was overrated and would be a drag on the ticket.

A long shot and deeply polarizing choice, but a favorite of the beltway crowd was Former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, the 2012 Republican candidate for President. Huntsman, a moderate had broken from his party after the 2012 election on a number of issues including gay marriage, and become heavily involved in the No Labels Movement; the nonpartisan non-ideological group aimed at putting country before label (and had endorsed Hillary as their respective choice for President). Huntsman, during his ambassadorship and after praised the former Secretary of State as a capable and remarkable woman. However, it seemed like such a farfetched dream ticket, but one in which Clinton was at least willing to consider. He brought enhanced foreign policy credentials. He was pragmatic, sensible and moderate and would be great at taking on the fringe elements that entangled the Republican Party, still it was getting him to yes, and that was the problem. He did not reject the idea, but he did not embrace it either.

The campaign finally settled on a shortlist that did include: Kaine, Brown, Huntsman, New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich, Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.

A Clinton-Huntsman ticket, the fantasy of the beltway crowd.

Hillary planned to announced her pick right at the start of the convention, to maximize the energy and enthusiasm. The stage was set. The Democrats were ready. Hillary made her announcement, and it was sure to shakeup the convention.[/i]

Gallup Tracking Poll:

Clinton: 50%

Rubio/Kasich: 38%

[NHI]

15. The Next Vice President?

"I announce my selection of Jon Huntsman to be the next Vice President of the United States." -- Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton announces Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman as her pick.

Absurd. Unprecedented. Bold. Uncanny. Crazy. Divisive. Significant, were just a few of the words lobbied around as Hillary Clinton made her selection of Jon Huntsman, Former Utah Governor, Ambassador to China and -- a Republican to say the least, as her running mate for Vice President. Immediately, some Democrats began fret, especially given the face Huntsman was still a registered Republican, even if a liberal one.

Clinton made her introduction of Huntsman during a press conference, on the day of the vote for Vice President. The Former Utah Governor admitted the selection was unorthodox, but also brave. He praised Clinton for going against political winds and having the courage to party country before label. Clinton affirmed that her selection of the former Republican Utah Governor was done twofold. First, because of his immense qualifications for the jobs and the experience and gravitas he brought to the ticket and to a potential administration, and second to illustrate how far the Republican party had shifted to the right.

"Governor Huntsman's positions were once the norm in the Republican Party, now he is the odd man out, the party has left him and millions of other Republicans behind in their full on embrace of the Tea Party and extreme elements."

Huntsman, added when asked about his party registration, saying he had no intention of changing his registration. "I'm a Republican, always have been, but I've been a forgotten one. A Republican left behind by my party."

The Clinton's were prepared for a possible convention fight. Some Democrats were threatening to walk, or at the very least propose another candidate from the floor, but the DNC looked to avoid the battles of the Republicans, just a few weeks earlier. The Democrats were determined to be professional and to hold the party together. Many Democrats privately and openly asked and talked about Huntsman changing his party registration, or at the very least becoming an independent, but the Clinton Campaign stood by their choice and Huntsman remained firm in his decision.

Already the RNC blasted the choice of Huntsman. Governor Kasich called him a back stabber to the Republican Party and conservative values. The term RINO was thrown around like soft balls. RNC Chair Priebus lambasted Huntsman, on FOX's Fox and Friends, "Calling him a turn coat and a political opportunist." This kind of press was not what the Democrats wanted, but it was what the Clinton's were planning and expected.

Privately, Hillary was given assurances from Huntsman, that while they differed on some political and philosophical issues, he would be fully supportive of her agenda and administration and being willing and able to defend her and it. Huntsman agreed, and also his intention to make his candidacy about putting country first, and that this "unity ticket" would be a signal to Congress and to the country that it was time to put aside politics and get to work.

Tbeltway media was elated over the 'dream ticket'. The so-called unity ticket of a Democrat and Republican joining forces was the stuff of political dreams. Some, however wondered if Huntsman would make it through the conventions. Other commentators, including MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, while skeptical of Democrat's full embrace of the moderate Republican, did praise Clinton for "showing guts with the pick" and that while Clinton and Huntsman differed on a few issues, they shared the same view of the world and US foreign policy. He also called it both a political and presidential pick. "She's looking to shakeup the race, because she knows the GOP will eventually rally around Rubio and he's going to close the gap, and also, she is picking someone who is competent and could be President."

By the grace of God, Huntsman was going to be nominated at the Democratic convention, but still many Democrats were not too pleased with the selection, by Clinton, and some were openly calling for a nomination from the floor. Both Martin O'Malley and Tim Kaine names were mentioned as possibilities, but both dismissed the idea. A solution proposed by the Clinton campaign, in order to quell Democrats' anxiety was to have Huntsman speak before he was officially nominated, therefore giving Democrats a chance to hear him and hopefully close the deal.

Going out of order, Hillary Clinton was nominated for President first. Bernie Sanders' name was placed on the ballot, but he had already ended his bid and encouraged his delegates to back Hillary Clinton. Clinton won overwhelmingly on the first ballot, but Sanders, still managed to garner nearly 6 percent of the delegates.

Democratic Nomination for President of the United States: First Ballot

√ Hillary Clinton: 94.7%
Bernie Sanders: 5.2%
Other/Abstain: 0.1%

Huntsman used his speech to win over Democrats. While he criticized the Republican Party for abandoning the big tent and becoming beholden to the ideological right wing, he also used the speech to illustrate his political beliefs and how he had more in common with the Democrats than they might have realized.

"I am Eisenhower Republican. A type of Republican that does not exist anymore. See, I believe in balanced budgets. I believe in a strong defense. I believe in a government that works for all of our people. My party has lost its way. Republicans today are more concerned about refighting the culture wars, rather than lifting people out of poverty, or giving a tax break for the middle class. The Republican who I am today and have been all my life, is ironically enough more in common and more in line with the views and policies of the Democratic Party, than that of the Republican Party. Now what does that say? Both parties love America, there can be no dispute on that, but one party is about empowering America, while other wants to keep America back and I will not stand by and be apart of it."

"I'm a Republican. Hillary Clinton is a Democrat. Only in America, I know, but you know what, this ticket is so very much America and American and it is what this country needs now more than ever: Solutions, not partisanship. Leadership, not gridlock. Hope, not fear. Progress, not status quo. I hope to join the Secretary in making this country more prosperous and more secure. I am a Republican, yes, she is a Democrat, yes, but we love our country, we believe in this country's potential. We know the challenges we face can be met and conquered and a that a bright new day can begin for America. We simply need to start working again, working again together as one people and as one country..." -- excerpt from Jon Huntsman's speech


Needless, to say Jon Huntsman, a Republican was nominated to be the Vice Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party -- and the rest of the DNC, they say, well, was history...

Hillary Clinton becomes first woman to accept a major party's nomination for President.
"I am ready to lead on Day one: to rebuild this country and restore who we are."

[NHI]

16. The Fight for the Senate

Sen. Kelly Ayotte vs. Gov. Maggie Hassan was the most expensive and competitive race of the season.

While the Presidential Election ate up most the headlines, the other big race(s) of 2016 was the battle for the United States Senate. The House seemed poised to remain in the control of the Republicans, at least for another two years, the Senate however was up for grabs. The Republicans were defending more seats than the Democrats and many were in swing states or generally reliable blue states: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, Illinois, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The race in New Hampshire between incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte and incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan was seen as the epicenter for which party controlled the Senate starting in 2017. A win by Ayotte, meant likely Republican control, but a win by Hassan meant it was anybody's game. Polls consistently showed a close race between the two candidates. Ayotte was banking on ticket splitting, while Hassan hoped having Clinton at the stop would carry her across the finish line.

Tammy Duckworth, an early favorite in Illinois

Illinois' race was a tossup starting in 2011, when Mark Kirk took office, but he soon earned a strong reputation for bipartisanship and even sympathy in the wake of his stroke, but nevertheless, the seat once held by Barack Obama, in blue Illinois, was a state the Democrats were hoping to pickup and to do make it happen, Tammy Duckworth seemed the likely choice. Early on, some polls gave Kirk a slight edge over Duckworth, but a primary challenge from Joe Walsh cost him dearly. While Duckworth breezed through the primary, Kirk had to spend time and resources fighting back a fight from the right. He ultimately prevailed, winning with 65 percent of the vote, but the race had left his low on resources. Heading into the general election most polls put the race as too close to call.

Competitive Senate Races: Cook Political Report

Florida: Tossup (R) Bill McCollum: 47% (D) Patrick Murphy: 48%

Colorado: Lean D (D) Michael Bennett: 49% (R) Owen Hill: 45%

Illinois: Tossup (R) Mark Kirk: 47% (D) Tammy Duckworth: 47%

Nevada: Tossup (D) Catherine Cortez Masto: 48% (R) Adam Laxalt: 47%

New Hampshire: Tossup (R) Kelly Ayotte: 46% (D) Maggie Hassan: 46%

Pennsylvania: Lean R (R) Pat Toomey: 50% (D) Joe Sestak: 46%

Wisconsin: Tossup (R) Ron Johnson: 48% (D) Russ Feingold: 48%

[NHI]

17. It's a Generational Thing

Sen. Rubio campaigning in Iowa.

While Clinton sought to portray Rubio was inexperienced and wet behind the ears, the Rubio campaign continued their message, which they had started with at the beginning of the campaign: Hillary Clinton represents the past, Marco Rubio represents the future. The campaign believed the three debates would offer the biggest opportunity for a contrast. While the campaign would not come outright and say it, many on the team believed, the young, dynamic Rubio would upstage, the much older Hillary Clinton. Many were hoping for a defining moment, much like the Kennedy vs. Nixon debate.

Oddly enough, the 2016 election seemed to parallel the 1960 election. A vastly experienced candidate, facing a young, relatively inexperienced Senator, who after eight years of one administration pledged to 'get America moving again'. Rubio sought to capture the same lightning in the bottle that put JFK in the White House over Richard Nixon. The Clinton campaign acknowledged this parallel, but saw their blueprint for 2016 being more like 1988, in which a Vice President held onto the White House for a party's third consecutive term. The incredible feat was accomplished by portraying the young Democratic challenger as out of step with America and as a liberal. In this example, Clinton was George H.W. Bush, and Rubio was Michael Dukakis.

The Republican primary had been long and bitter. The convention had been a free for all. The platform was a bedrock of extreme conservative principles and ideas. To Hillary, wrapping Rubio up as an extreme right-winger was the next phase of her three prong strategy to win the White House.

Because of the length and uncertainty of the Republican primary, the Clintons were not prepared for the eventual nominee of Rubio. Many believed, including the former President, that after finishing third overall, Rubio would not make it past the first ballot, let alone the convention. The Clinton Team began preparing for the possibility of a Paul nomination, though it was always deemed unlikely. They prayed for Rick Santorum, but knew it would be too good to be true. Believing Rubio was too damaged and bruised because of the primary the campaign discounted him and instead believed Republican would select a consensus candidate a la Mitt Romney.

Unlike Obama, who was able to define Romney early, while the 2012 GOP primary was still on going, Clinton had to contend with an insurgent challenge from Bernie Sanders, who took longer than expected to put away. However, once she wrapped up the nomination, she still lacked a GOP opponent, so the campaign made the decision to use much of its remaining funds to begin defining and reintroducing Hillary Clinton in the eyes of votes. Done were the big speeches and rallies. Clinton hit the house party circuit and held round tables and town halls across the country.

Hillary kicks off the the fall campaign with swings through Iowa, Ohio and Virginia.

Arisky bet by the campaign, which seemed to pay off. Coming out of the conventions and into the first round of the general election, Clinton was still way ahead, though she and her team expected the gap to close as Republicans united behind Rubio and focused their energies on winning back the White House after two losses.

"History was always running against Hillary. The third term of Barack Obama, which while she openly embraced, believing the country was moving more to the left, the Republican used it as a weight around her neck, hoping it would bring her down." -- Chuck Todd (9/18/16)

"Elections are always about the future." -- Sen. Rubio in Miami, FL

Clinton hoping for a comeback, campaign in NH with Gov. Hassan and Sen. Shaheen.

[NHI]

18. Ready to be President

"I know how tough this job is, I've seen up close and personal." -- Hillary Clinton

"This election is not about yesterday, it's about tomorrow." -- Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton began preparing for her 1st presidential debate in early June. She considered a wide net of challengers, evaluating their strengths and weakness. When it became clear that Rubio would emerge the victor, Hillary began studying up on the Florida Republican. Rubio, while charismatic on the stump, had proven an average debater at best during the primary. During one of the debates, which featured Donald Trump, Rubio was caught off guard by a remark by the Donald, which included a swipe at his hair and his record on immigration. Instead of responding, Rubio stared blankly off into the distance, reminding everyone of the water bottle incident. The matter resolved, when the moderator moved the debate along to another subject.

Rubio's plan from the start was to paint Clinton as a figure of the past, and no better example of that would be, when the two stood side-by-side during the debates. His strategy was simple, deflect and talk about the future.

"Senator Rubio talks about the future, but he has record and beliefs suggests he's trying to replicate the past with a social record found in the 1950s and an economic record of the 1920s." -- Hillary Clinton

"The Secretary has a truth problem. The American people want someone who will be honest and upfront with them, not duck and hide on issue after issue, or delete email after email." -- Marco Rubio


"...I'm not the youngest candidate in this race, but I do believe I have the experience and the readiness to be president on day one. This is not a job for on the job training. I intend to hit the ground running." -- Hillary Clinton


"The best America has always been one, which looks to the future and realizes there are great possibilities to be met and opportunities to be seized. That's the America I want to lead." -- Marco Rubio

The debates largely did not alter the race. Rubio seemed to show his strongest performance during the town hall debate, and he did manage to narrow the gap between he and Clinton. The Vice Presidential debates were as expected a draw, between John Kasich and Jon Huntsman. As Election Day neared, Clinton and Rubio crisscrossed the country targeting the states of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire and Iowa. Clinton was taking nothing for granted, polls showed her with a 3 to 4 point lead, but as expected most Republicans had rallied around Rubio, and she needed to ensure that not only she won over independents, but kept her own base in tact. The election would be all about turnout.

Pres. Obama campaigns with and on behalf of Hillary in Ohio, Virgina, North Carolina and Nevada.

Frm. Pres. Bill Clinton proves he's still a rock star, drawing large crowds in Ames, Iowa.

Former rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigns in NH for Clinton, calling a Rubio Presidency "dangerous" and "backwards".

Both Romney and Christie campaign for Rubio in Pennsylvania and Ohio. "Hillary Clinton is yesterday's old news. Let's turn the page for America!"

Republican VP John Kasich hopes Ohio can deliver for him again.

Jon Huntsman campaigns in Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Nevada.

The decision: Hillary vs. Marco

RCP Average: November 2016

Hillary Clinton: 49.0%

Marco Rubio: 46.9%

Undecided/Other: 4.1%

[NHI]

19. The Fight

National polls in 2012 showed a close race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but in the swing states the election was seen heading in Obama's direction. Four years later, most national polls put Hillary Clinton ahead of Marco Rubio, but in the swing states, polls painted a different and closer picture.

After Obama's crushing win over Romney, many Republicans believed there to be a Democratic lock on the White House. The party had fallen down the path of the Democrats of 1970s and 1980s. Successful at the Congressional level, but out of step and out of touch with the majority of Americans at the national level. Throughout much of the Obama second term that seemed to be the case, though time has a way of healing all wounds, and while Republicans still lagged behind Democrats in key demographics (women, Latinos, the young), in four years time they had made up considerable ground, even in the face of a divided and congested primary, which delivered a brokered convention.

In the swing states Clinton and Rubio were running neck and neck, much which was attributed to the rallying of Republicans. While, many conservatives were frustrated by the loss of Mitt Romney and longed for a 'true conservative' to emerge as the nominee in '16, the crowded field prevented such an event from occurring. As a result, Republicans were more concerned with winning back the White House; as many Republicans privately lamented, if they lost in '16 the party itself might be finished.

Smart money was on a Clinton win, though it was assumed with be a hollow win. Narrow in size and unlikely a result of winning back party control of Congress. For Republican hopefuls a victory by Rubio was seen as coming in one of two scenarios. A deadlocked election, which some pundits believed could happen, or in a blowout. Not many speculated such an election result, but if Rubio were to prevail outright, it would be as a referendum by the silent majority on the direction of America during the past eight years. Rubio was hoping for it to be realized.

Election Day. Team Hillary had been preparing for the day from the start of her campaign back in April 2015. Despite an unexpected primary challenge from Bernie Sanders, Hillary arrived confident and ready as she returned to New York, after making final stops in Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. Turnout was key. Her team relied on the Obama model, believing it was the key to delivering a third Democratic term, but she was taking nothing for granted. She worked her heart out, up until the very end. She finished in New Hampshire, originally planning on speaking only in Concord, but decided to make a swing through the northern party of the state and then down to the seacoast, where she ended with a final rally in Portsmouth.

Nate Silver: Election Prediction

√ Hillary Clinton: 285

Marco Rubio: 253

Tossup: CO, UT, IA, VA, NC, FL

Intrade Prediction:

√ Hillary Clinton: 276

Marco Rubio: 262

Tossup: OH, CO, VA

Larry Sabato Prediction:

Hillary Clinton: 269

Marco Rubio: 269
Tossup: IA, CO, VA, UT, OH

"Alright, let's go win this one." -- Hillary Clinton.

Results: Dixsvile Notch, NH (November 8, 2016)

√ Marco Rubio: 6 (60%)

Hillary Clinton: 4 (40%)

Results: Hart's Location, NH (November 8, 2016)

√ Hillary Clinton: 26 (78.8%)

Marco Rubio: 7 (21.2%)

New Hampshire: Presidential Election Results < 1% Counted

Hillary Clinton: 30 (69.8%)

Marco Rubio: 13 (30.2%)

[NHI]

Love this, though no way that putting Huntsman on the ticket would make Utah close. Maybe under 60%, but that's it.

I threw it in to truly be absurd. ;-)

should be an interesting election night....

[NHI]

20. Election Night 2016

The campaigns settled down. No more speeches. No more rallies. No more debates. The big moment had arrived. Election Night, in America. For Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio, the most important moment of their political careers was about to unfold; the election of the one who would be President.

Hillary Clinton: 0 (0%)

Marco Rubio: 0 (0%)

7:00 pm

"The usual states at this hour...Vermont, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Indiana. No surprises here." -- Rachel Maddow

PROJECTION: VERMONT

√ Hillary Clinton: 65.9% Marco Rubio: 33.5%

PROJECTION: SOUTH CAROLINA, INDIANA, KENTUCKY

√ Marco Rubio: 58.0% Hillary Clinton: 41.1%

√ Marco Rubio: 55.6% Hillary Clinton: 44.2%
√ Marco Rubio: 57.5% Hillary Clinton: 42.0%

Marco Rubio: 28 (51.1%)

Hillary Clinton: 3 (48.3%)

"Virginia and Georgia are too early to call. Georgia is expected to go for Rubio, though Clinton is performing at about the level of Barack Obama from four years ago." -- Rachel Maddow

"In Virginia, exit polls show a very close race between the Former Secretary of State and the Florida Senator." --- Rachel Maddow

VIRGINIA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS EXIT POLLS

Hillary Clinton: 51.3%

Marco Rubio: 48.2%

VIRGINIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: < 1% Counted (Too Close to Call!)

Marco Rubio: 56.7%

Hillary Clinton: 42.9%

7:30 pm

PROJECTION: WEST VIRGINIA

√ Marco Rubio: 58.2% Hillary Clinton: 41.6%

"West Virginia goes for Mr. Rubio tonight. Mrs. Clinton at one point hope to keep the state in play, but tonight it goes once again the for the GOP ticket." -- Rachel Maddow

"As expected, North Carolina and Ohio remain too close to call. North Carolina exit polls show a lead for Mr. Rubio, but we do not feel comfortable projecting the state at this time. In Ohio, the all important battleground state, the home state of GOP Vice Presidential running mate John Kasich, Mr. Rubio is also ahead, but it is too early to make a projection." -- Rachel Maddow

NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: < 1% Counted (Too Close to Call!)

Marco Rubio: 53.4%

Hillary Clinton: 45.9%

OHIO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: < 2% Counted (Too Close to Call!)

Marco Rubio: 54.9%

Hillary Clinton: 45.0%

MSNBC Hosts, Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews await the results.

Presidential Election Results:

Marco Rubio: 33 (52.6%)

Hillary Clinton: 3 (47.0%)

[NHI]

21. The Slog of Election Night

8:43pm

PROJECTION: NEW HAMPSHIRE

√ Hillary Clinton: 52.0% Marco Rubio: 46.7%

"New Hampshire continues its trend of voting Democratic at the Presidential level. Hillary Clinton carries it tonight." -- Rachel Maddow

"No projection can be made yet in the race for the United States Senate between incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte and Governor Maggie Hassan." -- Chris Matthew

NH Senate Race: Ayotte: 49.6% Hassan: 48.8% Other: 1.6%

Hillary Clinton: 83 (52.7%)

Marco Rubio: 72 (47.0%)

FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: 19% Counted (Too Close to Call)

Marco Rubio: 51.8%

Hillary Clinton: 48.0%

PENNSYLVANIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: 10% Counted (Too Close to Call)

Hillary Clinton: 52.8%

Marco Rubio: 46.2%

OHIO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: EXIT POLLS

Hillary Clinton: 50.4%

Marco Rubio: 48.7%

OHIO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: 31% Counted (Too Close to Call)

Marco Rubio: 51.3%

Hillary Clinton: 47.8%

9:00 pm

"More states to project at this time, the largest chunk of electoral votes of the evening and here are the results." -- Rachel Maddow

PROJECTION: NEW YORK, MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, NEW MEXICO

√ Hillary Clinton: 64.7% Marco Rubio: 34.5%

√ Hillary Clinton: 53.7% Marco Rubio: 45.5%

√ Hillary Clinton: 54.0% Marco Rubio: 45.1%

√ Hillary Clinton: 53.1% Marco Rubio: 45.7%

√ Hillary Clinton: 54.3% Marco Rubio: 44.9%

PROJECTION: KANSAS, NEBRASKA, SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTH DAKOTA, WYOMING, LOUISIANA, TEXAS

√ Marco Rubio: 59.6% Hillary Clinton: 39.1%

√ Marco Rubio: 59.4% Hillary Clinton: 39.8%
√ Marco Rubio: 57.9% Hillary Clinton: 41.6%

√ Marco Rubio: 58.7% Hillary Clinton: 40.8%

√ Marco Rubio: 62.5% Hillary Clinton: 37.0%

√ Marco Rubio: 57.5% Hillary Clinton: 42.0%

√ Marco Rubio: 56.4% Hillary Clinton: 43.1%

COLORADO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: 2% Counted (Too Close to Call)

Marco Rubio: 52.0%

Hillary Clinton: 47.6%

COLORADO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: EXIT POLLS

Marco Rubio: 50.2%

Hillary Clinton: 49.1%

"Another state to project at this hour. Georgia will be won by Senator Marco Rubio." -- Rachel Maddow

PROJECTION: GEORGIA

√ Marco Rubio: 52.9% Hillary Clinton: 45.4%

Marco Rubio: 154 (47.5%)

Hillary Clinton: 153 (51.9%)

"Still many more states left undecided, with more states left to close in the coming hours. This election night is far from over."

[NHI]

22. The Senate

The Democrats saw their best bet in picking up the Senate in 2016, despite Republican winning it back in 2014. While the Presidential Election was the main show, the battle for control of the Senate was being waged in swing state upon swing state, some states which while voting for either Rubio or Clinton, delivered a person of the opposite party to the Senate. The two biggest upset came first in New Hampshire, where incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan narrowly lost to incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte. Despite, outspending the incumbent Senator, coupled with Hillary's presence on the top of the ticket and increased turnout, Ayotte managed to hold onto her seat, despite a wave of Democratic resurgence across the country.

The second in Illinois, where despite Hillary's landslide victory over Rubio in the state, incumbent Senator Mark Kirk managed to fend off a strong challenge from Representative Tammy Duckworth.

Competitive Senate Races: 2016

New Hampshire Senate Race: R HOLD

√ Kelly Ayotte: 49.5%

Maggie Hassan: 49.3%

Florida Senate Race: D GAIN

√ Patrick Murphy: 49.6%

Bill McCollum: 49.2%

Illinois Senate Race: R HOLD

√ Mark Kirk: 50.0%

Tammy Duckworth: 48.9%

Colorado Senate Race: D HOLD

√ Michael Bennett: 49.7%

Owen Hill: 46.8%

Nevada Senate Race: D HOLD

√ Catherine Cortez Masto: 49.8%

Adam Laxalt: 48.9%

Pennsylvania Senate Race: R HOLD

√ Pat Toomey: 50.8%

Joe Sestak: 48.2%

Wisconsin Senate Race: D GAIN

√ Russ Feingold: 50.0%

Ron Johnson: 49.0%

United States Senate: Election Results 2016

√ Republicans: 52

Democrats: 48

Democrats made headway, unlike 2014, however the Republican narrowly managed to hold onto the United States Senate, by a narrow margin 52-48.

Other 2016 Senate Races:

Alaska: R HOLD

√ Lisa Murkowski: 48.5%

Mark Begich: 46.9%

Joe Miller: 4.5%

Arizona: R HOLD

√ John McCain: 53.1%

Ann Kirkpatrick: 43.9%

Other: 3.0%

California: D HOLD

√ Kamala Harris: 58.9%

David Drier: 41.9%

Ohio: R HOLD

√ Rob Portman: 51.0%

Ted Strickland: 47.8%