EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[ObserverIE]

Hahaha, amazing. For context, Midlands-North-West is 1/2 conservative rural Irish heartland stereotype, 1/2 exurban commuters who hate taxes. The amount of historic socialism in this constituency is approximately zero. However, in service of their general discontent with tax increases, government policies and the European approach to Ireland's economic crisis, they have elected two Eurosceptic anti-tax populists (the Irish left always tells people they can have lower taxes and more government spending, though they stay away from anything controversial like actually explaining how they'd get the rest of the money).

Midlands-North West includes places like Dundalk, Drogheda, Athy, and, of course, Galway City... none of which fit that stereotype. I'd also question how conservative Ireland's conservative rural heartland really is.

From tallying the European vote on the day of the local election count, the areas which elected the two Eurosceptic left-wingers were the "conservative rural heartland" areas, which have seen none of the supposed economic recovery that we continually hear trumpeted by our government and a largely pliant media, are watching their wages stagnate and their disposable income disappear as more and more financial demands are placed on them as the result of flat charges and service cuts, and are heartily sick of watching their children, siblings and neighbours leave for Australia and Canada.

We slack-jawed, straw-chewing, rednecks may still be conservative on a lot of issues but we're fed up with being patronised and walked upon.

[ObserverIE]

And of course, I don't view 'rural Ireland' as a homogeneous whole, and of course, every individual is a precious snowflake, but general conclusions about large populations based on empirical evidence are incredibly useful in almost every field of activity, and it's foolish to explain GUE strength in Midlands-North-West without noting that actually, Roscommon people are not similar to Swedish Left Party voters.

It's notable that FG also got badly battered in a lot of these counties (Sligo, Roscommon, Cavan, Leitrim, even Mayo to a certain extent) in the local elections.

[ObserverIE]

Historically, South has had important independents, Pat Cox and that Anti-EU woman.

And if you want to go all the way back to the beginning, TJ Maher. Maher was head of the Irish Farmers' Association, which is like being a union boss in other European countries. Two of the other ten IFA presidents since him have also been elected as MEPs. Cox was deselected as a Progressive Democrat but defeated his former party leader. Sinnott was best known for taking a disability rights legal case. She is a conservative Catholic.

So two of the three independents had big grassroots movements behind them (the IFA and the Pro-Life Campaign) and the other was already an incumbent MEP.

And of course, I don't view 'rural Ireland' as a homogeneous whole, and of course, every individual is a precious snowflake, but general conclusions about large populations based on empirical evidence are incredibly useful in almost every field of activity, and it's foolish to explain GUE strength in Midlands-North-West without noting that actually, Roscommon people are not similar to Swedish Left Party voters.

It's notable that FG also got badly battered in a lot of these counties (Sligo, Roscommon, Cavan, Leitrim, even Mayo to a certain extent) in the local elections.

Which makes me wonder an off-topic wondering, what happened in your part of the world?

European elections: Ming led the field with 30% of the vote and McGuinness a distant second.

Flanagan 5251 29.80%
McGuinness 3157 17.92%
Carthy 2134 12.11%
Harkin 1934 10.97%
Byrne 1646 9.34%
Gallagher 982 5.57%
Mullen 837 4.75%
Higgins, J 789 4.48%
Higgins, L 474 2.69%
Gilroy 143 0.81%
Dearey 93 0.53%
Fay 61 0.35%
Fitzsimons 61 0.35%
Ní Fhearraigh 60 0.34%

Local elections: FG's local vote held up well (a lot of it due to hyper-local "friends and neighbours" effects) but they still lost seats and lost control of the council to a FF-Ind alliance.

(FG shouldn't take too much comfort from this; in 2009, FF's vote held up well here locally when it was being slaughtered everywhere else. It still didn't stop them being slaughtered locally like everywhere else at the following general election - they were barely ahead of Labour on FPVs. We can be funny that way.)

I'm not arguing that rural Ireland is consciously voting for communism, BTW (just to toss that particular straw man into the boghole), but I think there's a very sizeable mauling awaiting FG there come the next election.

[ObserverIE]

Merci

I know you're not, but I think some people got the impression that Midlands-North-West with 2/4 MEPs for GUE was somehow becoming a left-wing stronghold, that SYRIZA-type politics could be emerging in an ex-programme country, when in reality it's a very different type of politician who got that support, who'd perhaps be perceived more as tax protesters in other European countries.

I'm not sure that I agree with your conclusions; I think the vote for Ming and the vote for SF are largely about continued austerity and an economic strategy which imposes seemingly endless pain without any visible benefit, both of which are perceived as being imposed at the behest of the EU high command by a government composed of middle-class Dubliners whose concerns begin and end with middle-class Dublin.

This is not a standard right-wing anti-tax vote (Mogens Glistrup/Carl Hagen/Howard Phillips). The closest thing to that on offer were DDI, who bombed in these elections.

[ObserverIE]

Things developed quite quickly it seems...

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http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0623/625874-fianna-fail-europe/

Crowley has had the FF whip removed over this move.

Doing a solo run to ally with the Tories was "een brug te ver" for FF, for historical-cultural reasons as much as ideological ones.

The combination of economic centrism, social conservatism by European standards, and less than total enthusiasm for further European integration means that FF doesn't naturally fit into any of the EP groups.

[ObserverIE]

Things developed quite quickly it seems...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0623/625874-fianna-fail-europe/

Crowley has had the FF whip removed over this move.

Doing a solo run to ally with the Tories was "een brug te ver" for FF, for historical-cultural reasons as much as ideological ones.

The combination of economic centrism, social conservatism by European standards, and less than total enthusiasm for further European integration means that FF doesn't naturally fit into any of the EP groups.

Apart from immigration issues, this combo makes FF identical to the DPP, who are already in the group.

But where the DFP is concerned, isn't "apart from immigration issues" a bit like "but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?".

FF were actually stranded in the then UEN group with Alleanza Nazionale, the DFP and LNNK from Latvia between 2004 and 2009 after the Gaullists left, in spite of the best efforts of the national FF leadership who wanted to get into ALDE after the 2004 elections. It was Crowley and some of the other then-MEPs who wouldn't agree to the move because they quite liked being biggish fish in a small pond. By 2009, AN were also leaving and the conciliatory Ahern had been replaced as FF leader by the more abrasive Cowen. The result was that Crowley & Co were decanted, kicking and screaming all the way, into ALDE.

I would have thought a closer analogue for FF than DFP would be Keskusta in Finland (or Centerpartiet in Sweden before it declined into irrelevancy). Centrist but not especially "liberal". In addition there would be similarities to CiU, PNV, or even the SNP as "regional" nationalist movements.

[ObserverIE]

But where the DFP is concerned, isn't "apart from immigration issues" a bit like "but apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?".

Originally yes, but increasingly less so - their present appeal is much broader and in many ways they are trying to fill the position FF traditionally had in Irish politics (not that I think they will succeed in this, its a tall order).

That would require them to swallow most of the SD vote and define themselves against Venstre/Conservatives (the FG analogue) rather than be allied with it. I don't see it either.

Parties here have kept well away from immigration issues up until now (even in the middle of a recession with sizeable out-migration of Irish citizens) and I don't see FF as being willing to go there.