Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[ObserverIE]

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Calling the Pope "the Antichrist" was a bit too off-the-wall for even the most conservative mainstream Catholics.

According to this week's Anglo-Celt, she's back in the race as an independent.

[ObserverIE]

Cork NC remains a 4 seater but has seen some boundary changes since 2011 - gaining 17,000 voters within Cork city from Cork SC, and losing 5,000 rural voters to Cork NW. The constituency is pretty evenly split between city proper and Cork county - many in the rural part of the constituency are obviously commuters into the city.

Cork NW is a 3-seater constituency and has gained 5,000 urban voters from Cork NC on the last boundary review. It remains though very much a large rural constituency.

Rural or urban in relation to the constituency as a whole, I take it.  (I know you wrote rural in your Cork NC writeup as it was in the (administrative) Cork County portion.)

Might the shifts of people/territory from Cork SC to Cork NC, and from Cork NC to Cork NW be shifts that (by themselves and together) increase the urban-ness (maybe very slightly for some of them) of all constituencies involved?  Two Will Rogers shifts, as it were?  (He once said something about someone moving from one place to another and either raising or lowering (I think raising) the intelligence of both places.)

They're four rural electoral divisions (Kilshannig, Dromore, Kilcullen and Mountrivers) which were shifted from Cork North West to Cork North Central at the previous redrawing in 2007 so they're essentially going back home. The northern end of Dromore is near Mallow and it contains a couple of large villages (by Irish standards) but the others seem to be very rural. They might be the outer reaches of Cork city commuter territory, I suppose, but that's about the height of it.

http://census.cso.ie/sapmap/

[ObserverIE]

The Irish Times got IpsosMRBI to run a number of focus groups which I thought made interesting reading. It contains little of solace for the Labour party.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2016-what-irish-voters-really-think-1.2515570

"C2DEs" make up about 40% of the electorate (if not of Irish Times readers). Labour have pissed them off economically, while being taken for granted by the section of society who have benefited from the recovery.

Labour are also about to learn what Christian Solidarity/Christian Centrist/Comhar Críostaí have learnt over the last two decades - there are feck all votes to be won in the culture wars.

[ObserverIE]

Matthews is a former chartered accountant and commentator on business issues. He is also a strong Catholic as his position on abortion indicates but, unusually for that group, has shown sympathy to Catholic 'social justice' type rhetoric in the past and that might be possibly why he didn't join with Renua, a very openly neo-liberal project.

Ironically, Mathews was probably the last Garret-style actual social democrat in FG (using social democrat in its economic sense rather than as the Irish media's euphemism for right-wing social liberal). It's just that he didn't seem to notice before joining FG that it had moved back to the right economically.

I don't, by the way, see much that is Catholic or Christian about a party proposing to raise the tax burden on the least well off in order to give massive tax breaks to the wealthiest in society and make up the difference by cutting social expenditure to ribbonsdynamic growth.

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He told this website that the poster was defaced, with a line put through independent and “Fine Gael, don’t vote for this man” written in its place. Mathews has since removed the graffiti.

“It’s not quite the same yellow [used in the poster],” he continued, adding that the division between the colours is also different and that he “achieved a completely different poster”.

  

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[/quote]

LOL

[ObserverIE]

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Her father was a prominent FF councillor and property-tax bore back in the day.

I fully expect Rathdown to go FG 2 + Ross. If the South Dublin haut bourgeois fail to reward the party that has run the country in their sole interests for the last five years, then they really are an ungrateful bunch of bastards.

[ObserverIE]

I have no idea how Terence Flanagan (Renua) or Sen. Power (i) are likely to do - but I presume they'll get squeezed out in the massive field.

Flanagan got 12,000 votes last time out. Now a lot of that will have been the FG party vote but I noticed he got a positive mention from the Irish Times focus group mentioned earlier. He may well surprise.

I am confident that Adorable Averil will get the response she so richly deserves.

[ObserverIE]

Hahaha, the Worker's Party, back from the dead, is running Councillor Éilis Ryan. This is incredible - she was elected in 2014 on the most utterly generic vaguely lefty platform imaginable - I think her main proposal was to have more trees and maybe a street market once a month. Bizarrely, she joined the undead Worker's Party last year.

Ryan is, in other words, pretty much the stereotypical Dublin Labour member but has presumably joined this tankie death cult in the hopes of capturing the lucrative anti-government vote. I hope she canvasses my house so I can ask if they're still friends with North Korea.

My understanding is that a group of leftish non-Trot activists (associated Marxists, anarchists, etc.) joined the moribund local franchise of the Workers' Party en masse with the knowledge of the party leadership. I think the candidate in Dublin North West may be another member of the group.

Ryan is not a tankie but she is probably well to the left of the platform she got elected on.

I suppose the retro air of 70s Stalinism may have an appeal in hipster-infested Stoneybatter.

[ObserverIE]

For any masochists around:

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/

[ObserverIE]

...and we have the first poll of the election campaign proper, Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 28 (-2)
FF 21 (+2)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (+1)
Lab 7 (-)
SP/SWP 4 (+2)
SD 2 (-)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

The battle for my last preference has been BLOWN WIDE OPEN by the decision at the last minute for RENUA to run a candidate in my constituency. His name is Alan Daveron and is apparently "a solicitor [who] has represented a number of clients in mortgage arrears". The competition between him, the SF candidate, and Mary White is going to be intense.

He seems to be the brother or husband of the Galway West candidate. Both work for the same solicitors' firm, although one claims to be based in Galway and the other in Dublin.

http://photos.galwaynews.ie/aetopia/WebObjects/CTShop.woa/3/wa/p?cl=ctEwxF9NpWgKMbE5-NNwdg..a&wosid=ZwA4kHgFbtQgNQzM2ktTbg&woinst=3&ts=fPFLoezswHGyHG54uG-8Qw..a

[ObserverIE]

so I more or less know about Broughan and Power, but what actually is the deal with McGrath? Is he a Tankie? Stickie? What?

Ex-Republican left and formerly associated with Tony Gregory, but pragmatic in practice - helped to prop up Ahern's last government.

[ObserverIE]

Tom Fleming (Fianna Fáil gene pool Independent - South Kerry) withdraws from the election because he doesn't believe he has a chance of election in the new, much larger, Kerry constituency.

[ObserverIE]

Fun test - did a few different Dublin constituencies and got the Green candidate on top each time. But I've got some questions.
What is the deal with Irish Water? '
What's NAMA and JobBridge?
That hospital question. Is that about private hospitals or am I just being ignorant about the Irish healthcare system?
And that water metering deal. Is that based on the, for a Scandinavian, totally bizarre left-wing resistance against water feeds?

Irish Water is a recently established (by the incumbent government) state-run company that is in charge of the water supplies throughout the entire country. Historically the management of water has left to the county councils, a situation which has regularly led to problems with the supplies, but has meant that water was and has been free at the point of use (i.e. for the overwhelming majority of consumers). As part of the government's financial restructuring following the 2010 'bailout' by the International Monetary Fund, charges on the use of water have been introduced and it is Irish Water that will collect them which according to themselves which allow them to modernize the water supply and end many of the issues surrounding it as well as raising money for the state. However, the company has been dogged with problems, senior management have all come from the traditional Irish semi-state pseudo-entrepreneurial management class with expectations of high very salaries and bonuses at taxpayers' expenses. The idea of charging for water is extremely controversial and has bought one of the biggest public resistance campaigns in Irish history with, at present, only half paying. This shortfall in funds has required it to get more and more state subsidies to stay afloat. Finally there are constant rumours often only half-heartily denied that the long-term objective of the government towards Irish Water is to privatize it and end the public provision of water supplies with all that that would entail.

Wrt water metering. Before the introduction of Irish Water there was nothing in place to monitor the level of water usage by the public. In order for this to rectified and thus relate water charges to water usage Irish Water has gone around Ireland trying to install water meters outside people's homes. It is here where a lot of the resistance to Water Charges has taken place with residents regularly blocking roads and preventing the installation of meters. This has sometimes gone as far as threats and harassment of those installing the meters.

Being on the receiving end of lectures on water conservation in what is probably the wettest country in Europe doesn't really make the public mood any better on the topic.

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It has also helped to facilitate a culture of unpaid internships where prospective employees are expected to work for nothing for a prolonged period of time as an indication of commitment.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour and Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 28 (-3)
FF 20 (-)
SF 17 (+1)
Ind/Oth 14 (-1)
Lab 8 (+2)
SD 4 (+3)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
Renua 2 (-)
GP 2 (-)
WP 1 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 31 (+2)
FF 17 (-)
SF 17 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (-)
Lab 10 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
SD 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
Renua 1 (-)

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

FG 27 (-2)
FF 22 (-2)
SF 21 (-)
Ind/Oth 19 (+2)
Lab 6 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (+2)
Renua 1 (-)
SD 1 (+1)
GP 1 (-)

Either RedC are overestimating FG and Labour or everyone else is underestimating them.

Hmmm. Looking at the small print, RedC have tweaked their methodology again, with the likely result of making it even more FG and Labour friendly than it was already, given those parties' stronger support among middle-class voters.

[ObserverIE]

WP 1 (-1)

Are they even running enough candidates to make 1%?

No. It is, I suspect, mainly a vague recollection of the brand from the 80s glory days of mullets, denim jackets, shoulder pads and the Berlin WallAnti-Fascist Defence Barrier.

[ObserverIE]

What is the date for the elections? I thought the rule was to put in in the thread title.

February 26th.

[ObserverIE]

Twenty-sixth.

[ObserverIE]

Some demographic analysis from RTÉ and Trinity College.

Election broadcasts so far:

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Alphabet Left

Try spotting the self-described witch in the Alphabet Left broadcast.

[ObserverIE]

Awesome thread; it's been fascinating to learn so much about the internal dynamics of each constituency!

Who is the typical voter for each of the main parties/alliances, in Dublin specifically?

Stereotype:

Fine Gael: professional and business classes, economically conservative, aspiring middle-classes and yuppies (if that's still a word) both actual and would-be; outside of Dublin larger farmers and the soi-disant "better class of people". A certain amount of what would in Britain be termed working-class Tories (although FG tends not to be particularly friendly to either the populism or nationalism that characterises working-class Toryism).

Labour: socially-liberal professional urbanites, not especially left-wing economically but secularist. Trade-union activists of a certain type, self-conscious supporters of League of Ireland soccer clubs (not, definitely not, Premiership or, worse still, GAA). Would formerly have had working-class support in urban and rural areas (the party's long-term base up until the late 60s was rural agricultural workers) but most of that has deserted the party since 2011 and it always played second fiddle to FF even among those voters.

Fianna Fáil: older middle-to-lower-middle and skilled working-classes, particularly those who have bought their homes from the council (the two old dears swimming in the giant armchairs in the election broadcast are utter FF stereotypes). Outside of Dublin, traditionally would have relied on smaller farmers and business people and the majority of working-class voters. It has shrunk to its core since 2008/09, leaving a large void that no-one else has yet really claimed for themselves.

Sinn Féin: traditionally a mixture of rural supporters who were similar to FF supporters except even more so, a smattering of cultural nationalists, and a working-class subculture in the bigger towns and cities. Has expanded since 2008/09 among working-class voters who might traditionally have supported FF or, more recently, Labour but who are disaffected by the economic collapse and subsequent austerity measures.

Alphabet Left: terminally-disaffected working-class voters in Dublin's suburban banlieues and purple-haired intersectionalist SJWs rallying to the banner of a collection of middle-aged, middle-class Trotskyite fantasists given to chronic internecine feuding.

Social Democrats: stereotypical middle-class ex-Labour supporters who were only prepared to stomach so many U-turns and hypocrisies from the leadership.

Renua: a mixture of small-business "get the government out of my way" types and social conservatives with a smattering of people who have made the mistake of taking Ayn Rand seriously.

Greens: see the first sentence of the description of Labour supporters, and substitute the word "secularist" with the word "environmentalist". Throw in a bunch of alternative lifestylers in the more trendy parts of the Irish countryside (west Cork, north Clare, Leitrim).

[ObserverIE]

RedC for Paddy Power:

FG 30 (-1)
FF 18 (+1)
SF 17 (-)
Ind/Oth 16 (-)
Lab 8 (-2)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
SD 3 (-)
Renua 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-)

[ObserverIE]

I'm surprised Irish Times is even allowed to mention Catherine Murphy.

It's the ironically-named Independent group that is owned by [REDACTED].

[ObserverIE]

And another constituency poll is out.

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Brown to poll Dublin West...



http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/joan-burton-staring-at-end-of-political-career-34443089.html

Party totals and changes since the 2011 election FWIW:

FG 22 (-7)
SF 20 (+14)
FF 17 (-) (although the second FF candidate last time is polling 9% as an independent)
SP 15 (-4)
Lab 10 (-19)
GP 2 (+1)

On those figures, I'd think it quite possible that McGuinness (the disenchanted FFer) could overhaul Joan Burton in the later counts.

[ObserverIE]

Breaking news from Kerry on nomination day...

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http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/danny-healy-rae/


I'll take another look at my Kerry prediction later, but my initial instinct is that two Healy-Raes in the Dáil is a real possibility.

Negotiations under way for a third candidate to fill the gender quota and pull in votes from north Kerry:

[ObserverIE]

First TV debate tonight, featuring the main party leaders and Joan Burton, on TV3 and jointly hosted by TV3 and the [REDACTED]-owned NewsTalk.

http://www.tv3.ie/3player/live/tv3/