Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

The utter awfulness of Ireland's political parties is currently a thing of wonder.

Speaking of which btw 'Others/Independents' now leads in the polls (Sadly, it is within the MoE).

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"Others" include the Cabbages Greens at 2% and Comrade Joe Militant's Irish franchise the Socialists at 1%.

[ObserverIE]

The utter awfulness of Ireland's political parties is currently a thing of wonder.

Speaking of which btw 'Others/Independents' now (Sadly, it is within the MoE).

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"Others" include the Cabbages Greens at 2% and Comrade Joe Militant's Irish franchise the Socialists at 1%.

Does that mean the other 23% are voting Healy-Rae junior? God help you.

I refer you to another previous post on this thread (he said shamelessly):

Wish they'd separate out those others.

The only other parties qua parties amongst the "others" are the Socialist Party and the other components of the faction-ridden and fisiparous "United" Left Alliance. The only figures that I've seen in polls have been 1% or so for the SP.

Even apart from the "ugh" factor towards the four main parties that I mentioned above, most independents by their nature are only standing in one constituency and cover the entire political spectrum. The more prominent ones vary from populist economic-right (Ross), competent centrist (Donnelly), left-libertarian (Flanagan, Wallace), orthodox left social democrats (Murphy), populist left republicans (Pringle) to populist Trotskyists (Daly, Collins). And those are the ones with a coherent ideology; you also have the Mattie McGraths, Michael Healy-Raes and Michael Lowrys. In addition, you have the dissident Labour TDs who have lost the whip and who might not be readmitted to the Titanic Labour Party in time for the election, the most prominent of whom are Róisín Shortall and Colm Keaveney.

In short, trying to disaggregate "others" is a hopeless task.

[ObserverIE]

Jumping on the Fianna Fáil train at this point is certainly something.

It still has something resembling a party machine (certainly outside Dublin it's usually the only organised non-Fine Gael force) and as a label, it is now arguably less toxic than Labour once you go beyond Chatterati Country. Not so much because its reputation has improved as because Labour's has nosedived.

[ObserverIE]

The former Chairman of the Labour Party, Colm Keaveney (who left the parliamentary party voting against the last budget) has joined Fianna Fáil.

I can't recall the last time a sitting TD changed party, rather than simply continue to sit as an independent. (Maybe when Democratic Left folded into Labour in 1999? But even that's not really comparable.)

Last direct defection was probably Martin Cullen in 1994 (PDs to FF), although you could make an argument for Liam Twomey (Ind -> FG) in 2004.

Ciarán Cannon - in the same constituency as Keaveney - did go from being the last accidental leader of the PDs to being a FG junior minister in a relatively short space of time though.

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I can't imagine Mathews feeling any more comfortable in the medium to long term in the Reform Alliance than he was in Fine Gael. Someone who is looking for "long-term redistribution of wealth to make society more equal" is unlikely to be a happy bunny in Lucinda's Tea Party.

[ObserverIE]

He couldn't find a real party to join?

The alternatives are:

• The Eat The Poor Party
• The Eat The Poor Party Doesn't Go Far Enough In Eating The Poor Party
• The We've Stopped Killing People Party, and

• The Four People, Five Factions Party

At that point The Bunch Of Chancers Who Busted The Country Party almost looks good. Almost.

[ObserverIE]

It's not as if Ireland doesn't have a long tradition of non-party candidates, of course.

His constituency gets pared down from a 4-seater to a 3-seater at the last election and his seat is the most vulnerable. It has elected independents before, and from the same geographical area within the constituency (Paddy McHugh from 2002 to 2007), but it was a 4-seater at the time.

But if he wanted to be consistent with his stated reasons for leaving Labour, joining FF (which is no more left-wing than even the current social liberalism-fixated version of Labour) makes little sense.

[ObserverIE]

What's wrong about having stopped killing people? It's more than can be said of the GOP, the Democrats, the Tories, Labour, the CDU, the SPD...

Indirect killing by drones, bombs, or the side-effects of "fiscal corrections" is, of course, acceptable, as we all know by now. However, old stories keep resurfacing.

An establishment media which detests and fears the Shinners (as much for what they might do to unsettle the self-same establishment as for what they did in a previous incarnation) will of course play these stories for all they're worth, but Adams really doesn't do himself any favours at times.

[ObserverIE]

First opinion poll of the year from RedC (changes from last poll and changes from last general election result - in italics - in brackets):

FG 28 (-1) (-8.1)
FF 22 (-) (+4.6)
SF 18 (+3) (+8.1)
Lab 10 (-2) (-9.4)
Green 2 (-) (+0.2)
Ind/Oth 20 (-) (+4.6)

Marijuana legislation (which seems to be a popular topic elsewhere on the board at the moment):

Yes 38
No 57
Too stoned to answer Don't Know 5

[ObserverIE]

I see some of the independents don't think there are enough factional leftist groups in the Dáil.
 

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To be fair, it's a group of leftish independents co-ordinating activities rather than yet another addition to the set of perpetually-feuding amoebas Trotskyite fragments, each claiming to be the vanguard of left unity.

[ObserverIE]

A couple more polls from last month for completeness' sake:

RedC (changes in comparison with the earlier January poll):

FG 27 (-1)
Ind/Oth 24 (+4)
FF 23 (+1)
SF 16 (-2)
Lab 9 (-1)
GP 1 (-)

Millward Brown/IMS (changes in comparison with last November; this poll measured undecided at 37%, so party figures are based on a relatively small percentage of the total sample):

FG 30 (+3)
FF 26 (+2)
SF 16 (-5)
Ind/Oth 16 (-3)
Lab 12 (+3)

The unadjusted figure for Labour in both polls was 7%.

[ObserverIE]

Good to see FG having a small lead.

Good that it's a lead, or good that it's a small one?

[ObserverIE]

Good to see FG having a small lead.

Good that it's a lead, or good that it's a small one?

Good that it's a lead.

Of course, I would rather Labour have a lead; but I'll take FG.

You are aware that FG are comfortably the most right-wing of the major parties here on economics, and that Labour have abandoned their own economic policies (and any pretensions toward keeping the larger coalition party honest) in order to get a few trifles on social liberal issues? Imagine a coalition of Mitt Romney and Michael Bloomberg and you won't be far off.

Anyway...

Two more polls this weekend.

RedC (changes since last month):

FG 29 (+2)
FF 22 (-1)
Ind/Oth 19 (-5)
SF 16 (-)
Lab 11 (+2)
GP 2 (+1)
SP 1 (+1)

More detail on the RedC poll on same-sex marriage here.

Behaviour and Attitudes (changes since December):

FG 30 (-)
Ind/Oth 21 (-)
FF 19 (-2)
SF 18 (+3)
Lab 9 (-2)
GP 3 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS (changes since last month):

FG 27 (-3)
SF 22 (+6)
FF 21 (-5)
Ind/Oth 20 (+5)
Lab 8 (-4)
GP 2 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

The fact that SF have surged takes the relief out of the fact that FF haven't profited from this GSOC thing.

Personally, I'm not really bothered as to who profits politically from the GSOC/McCabe-Wilson issue as long as the issue is dealt with.

But it would be reassuring to see FG and Labour take some sort of hit in popular support for their behaviour over it (Shatter's in particular, but also the spinelessness and utter cynicism of the likes of Rabbitte; I am old enough to remember Rabbitte's antics during the downfall of the Reynolds/Spring coalition and the contrast between now and then is instructive).

Both Shatter and Callinan should have been dispatched last year: a Garda Commissioner who feeds a minister with politically-incriminating tit-bits about opposition TDs and a vindictive megalomaniac who thinks it OK to come out with these tit-bits to try to discredit an opponent in a television interview are both unfit for the positiions they hold.

[ObserverIE]

Another by-election due in Dublin West as the winner of the last one resigns over "inappropriate messages" left on the Facebook page of a 17-year-old girl.

[ObserverIE]

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http://www.thejournal.ie/nicky-mcfadden-death-1377081-Mar2014/

RIP

Didn't know her personally (I'm in a different end of the constituency), but she always came across as being one of the nicer people in national politics.

In other news, the Garda Commissioner has resigned, and an inquiry has been launched into the prolonged recording of calls into and from Garda stations which seems to have been authorised by the Gardaí themselves. These revelations apparently came to light during a currently ongoing criminal trial *cough*Anglo*cough*.

[ObserverIE]

RedC (changes since last month):

FG 26 (-3)
FF 22 (-)
SF 21 (+5)
Ind/Oth 19 (-1)
Lab 9 (-2)
GP 3 (+1)

Lowest figures for both FG and Lab in RedC polls since the 2011 election (and RedC's methodology is relatively friendly to parties which are currently unpopular).

[ObserverIE]

[Trigger warning: may cause outbreaks of nausea]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times (changes since last poll in December):

FG 25 (-5)
FF 25 (+3)
SF 21 (-)
Ind/Oth 21 (+3)
Lab 8 (-1)

I left FG ahead of FF so as not to traumatise the other IE posters too much.

In other news, our local chip-wrapper mentions Aengus O'Rourke (son of "Mammy" and cousin of the Lenihans) as a possible FF candidate for the Longford-Westmeath by-election. Because FF really need to remind the electorate of all of the old dynasties.

[ObserverIE]

RIP Ireland (1916-3/4/2014).

We replaced drunken incompetents with a collection of arrogant and cynical compulsive liars (who are looking to be no less incompetent). What exactly were you expecting?

[ObserverIE]

What poll internals we're likely to get are here.

Figures not really surprising. What recovery there has been is localised in Dublin (and to a lesser extent places like north Kildare and the Lee estuary).

The rest of the country (and the non-middle class areas of Dublin) is still stagnating or going backwards.

Why would they vote for a government mainly composed of upper-middle class Dubliners? (And arrogant, cynical, and not especially competent upper-middle class Dubliners at that.)

[ObserverIE]

Millward/Brown IMS (changes since last month):

FG 29 (+2)
FF 22 (+1)
Ind/Oth 21 (+1)
SF 20 (-1)
Lab 6 (-2)
GP 2 (-)

Behaviour and Attitudes (changes since February):

Ind/Oth 26 (+5)
FG 21 (-9)
FF 20 (+1)
SF 20 (+2)
Lab 9 (-)
GP 4 (+1)

[ObserverIE]

A bit of.... variation there.

Worth noting: That B&A puts (no, I don't believe the Greens are on 4%, why do you ask?) FG at a lower level than what they achieved in 2002.

21% and 6% are what the two government parties deserve.

As for the 4%, please spare us that smug bicycling Ranelagh git and his crew of fingerwaggers.

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We have turned so many corners that we have lost count.

[ObserverIE]

Most of us have turned so many corners we've ended up in London, Toronto or Perth.

Tell me about it.

In RL, I'm involved with one of the groups in Irish society to whom ritual lip-service is always given during discussion of emigration - the small rural GAA club.

Out of a panel of about 25-30, five have left since last September and I'd only be optimistic about one of those five returning in the foreseeable future. Another two had gone the year before. We're struggling to field teams every week - not always successfully - and every other club I'm dealing with is in the same situation. I take the trumpeted announcements of falling unemployment with bucketloads of salt.

[ObserverIE]

Thanks for the link to the B&A data.

Labour voters approve of Enda Kenny more than of Eamon Gilmore

That one is entirely credible.

FG voters give Gilmore his highest approval rating. They know a good doormat when they see one.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS again (a companion piece to the European election polls discussed elsewhere, and changes since earlier this month):

FG 25 (-4)
FF 23 (+1)
Ind/Oth 23 (+2)
SF 21 (+1)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 2 (-)

A member of the walking dead Labour MEP thinks the Labour leader should resign before the local and European elections.