Pennsylvania: Bush with narrow lead (user search)
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  Pennsylvania: Bush with narrow lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: Pennsylvania: Bush with narrow lead  (Read 3319 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« on: March 31, 2004, 02:11:25 PM »

Pennsylvania will be closely tied to Ohio, as will Michigan.  The better Bush does in Ohio, the better he will do in the other two.  I think Ohio will be the easiest to win, followed by Penn., followed by Michigan.  Bush will probably do four points worse in Pennsylvania than he does in Ohio, and eight points worse in Michigan.  So...

If Bush wins by five points in Ohio,
he takes Penn. by one point,
and loses Michigan by four.

If Bush wins Ohio by nine points,
he takes Penn. by five,
and takes Michigan by one.

Or some correlation very much like that.
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