Whoever comes fourth in Wisconsin drops out, unless it's Trump or Cruz.
Trump probably would've still gotten his reliable 35%, and the anti-Trump vote would've been more fractured. I'd guess Kasich comes in fourth and Cruz barely wins.
The only thing keeping Kasich in the race right now is the belief that he's the only "electable" active candidate with delegates, and somehow the delegates at a brokered convention will see reason. With Rubio still in the race, he wouldn't even have that. A fourth-place finish in a Great Lakes state would be the end of his viability as a candidate.
Coming out of Mar. 15, Kasich and Rubio could have both said they were strong electable alternatives to Cruz/Trump who won their respective home states, despite Kasich's poor showing in Illinois. However, there could really only be room for one. Rubio would need to state his case by stopping Trump in the Mid-Atlantic. Kasich's case would need to be stated in Wisconsin.
A fourth-place finish by either probably would have winnowed the race down to three, but Wisconsin would have been more important for Kasich. He probably would have needed to pick up a significant share of the delegates there. If he came in a distant second or worse he probably would have bowed out in favor of Rubio.
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