Clinton has a 272 EV Firewall.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is looking more and more like an impenetrable wall for Clinton.  Exactly where can Trump realistically crack this?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Pennsylvania is the critical state; everyone has been saying that for months , and they have spoken so for good reason.

It's probably the most likely, but it has been slipping away, and fast.  It may go left of the nation.  This map might be the result if Trump wins the PV by 1%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

So exactly how old is the freiwal gag?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is looking more and more like an impenetrable wall for Clinton.  Exactly where can Trump realistically crack this?

Almost impossible for trump to do anything.
When you look at this map, you give trump NV, IA, OH, FL, NC, ME-02, and NE-02 ...
and he still is not there yet.
With his gutter numbers right now, he is done !

Even without his terrible numbers.   How much does Trump need to win by, nationally, in order to win:

Pennsylvania?
New Hampshire?
Virginia?
Colorado?

The way polls look now, Trump not only needs a popular vote to pick up any of these, but a significant one.  At least 1%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Even without his terrible numbers.   How much does Trump need to win by, nationally, in order to win:

Pennsylvania? Lose the PV by 1
New Hampshire? Win the PV by 10
Virginia? Win the PV by 1
Colorado? Win the PV by 1

Trump is slipping in PA faster than he is nationwide.  The RCP average there is Clinton +8, and Clinton +7.2 nationally.  Trump has, in fact, never led in PA, even when he was leading nationally.  The Keystone State strategy seems to be a fool's errand.  It will probably go left of the nation.

Trump's battleground options are very limited.  If he gets to a small PV plurality, those gains are going to come in battleground states he would easily win anyway - Ohio, Florida, Iowa - or in places where it wouldn't make any difference.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't see Trump winning anything in Maine.
Or Iowa.
Or Nevada.

I think most of us would agree with you.
I believe this map was colored to show an extreme come-back by trump, yet he is still short in EV to win the election.

The map is colored to show Trump pulling even, or even slightly ahead in the PV.  PA once looked promising.  Even MI did.  At this point the EC is totally stacked against Trump.  He has to play battleground whack-a-mole, whereas a PV victory all but assures Clinton of an EC victory.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Even without his terrible numbers.   How much does Trump need to win by, nationally, in order to win:

Pennsylvania? Lose the PV by 1
New Hampshire? Win the PV by 10
Virginia? Win the PV by 1
Colorado? Win the PV by 1

Trump is slipping in PA faster than he is nationwide.  The RCP average there is Clinton +8, and Clinton +7.2 nationally.  Trump has, in fact, never led in PA, even when he was leading nationally.  The Keystone State strategy seems to be a fool's errand.  It will probably go left of the nation.

Trump's battleground options are very limited.  If he gets to a small PV plurality, those gains are going to come in battleground states he would easily win anyway - Ohio, Florida, Iowa - or in places where it wouldn't make any difference.

Yeah, my guess is that if he wins, he will take either WI or MI.

There hasn't been a post-convention poll in WI that I'm aware of.  Clinton led by double-digits at one point, then dropped to about 5% in July.  I think Trump has a hard ceiling in WI, beyond which the state becomes inelastic.  If Clinton wins big nationally, she'll win big in WI.  But even if Trump wins by 3-4%, he won't break through in WI.

MI is trickier to predict.  The fundamentals favor him much more strongly.  If Trump wins because of an economic collapse, it wouldn't surprise me to see the wave that sweeps him into power including MI.  It's also polling right of the nation (and PA) currently.

This could be Trump's victory map in such a scenario:

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Trump has a great debate or two and pulls it to a very close race is almost certain to hold NC (GA and AZ) and pick up FL and OH and probably IA. VA and CO appear to be drifting away from the center line and WI, MI and MN aren't likely to be tipping points.   

So, once again it appears to come down to PA, NH, NV and ME2. In what order does Trump pick up those states as he gets closer and closer and tips over to a small PV win? I still think that PA flips before all of NH, NV and ME2. Not sure what you count as 'firewall'

If I had to guess, I'd say the PV center line goes through FL, with OH, IA, and NV to the right of FL, and PA to the left.  And the rise in PV necessary to flip PA is significant.  But at that point the floodgates open rather quickly, with VA and CO falling to Trump as well.  (NV->IA->FL->VA=PA->CO->ME2->NH)

I would define a firewall as a set of states that are held strongly enough to block the establishment of any reasonable battleground strategy by an opponent.  I mean, give Trump a 2% or greater lead nationally, and the EVs will come from somewhere.  But we have battleground states for a reason: to provide an electoral path to victory in the event of a close race. 

Wait, IA is drifting away?  Was there a new poll that showed him ahead by more than 5%?  The last two polls (pre-conventions) went to Trump.

Hopefully we'll get more polls soon.  This all may be moot, because I can't see Trump getting anywhere near even nationally before November.