States most likely to flip to the Republicans?

[Keystone Phil]

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Pretty good guesses, although I doubt your native PA switches back.  I actually forgot that McCain did very well in western PA, yet still lost by 10 pts.  Unless the GOP nominee can break 25% in Philly, forget about it.

We just need to hit 20% here and the Dems will struggle to hold the state especially since Obama won't do as well in the suburbs and the Lehigh Valley this time around.

[Keystone Phil]

Now here's a question...as Pennsylvania goes, building an electoral coalition for the Reps...are SW PA and the philly burbs almost mutually exclusive?

It's all the in the delivery. Follow the Toomey model and you win.

[Keystone Phil]

What happens if the GOP cracks 20% in Philly and wins Chester but loses Bucks? 

That probably wouldn't happen but if it did, I'm assuming we'd just barely lose Bucks and it would mean a win statewide. Cracking 20% in Philly is a huge blow for any Democrat running statewide. It's essentially game over at that point.

[Keystone Phil]

Pat Tumor = bad example. This isn't 2010.

It not being 2010 doesn't mean his formula for uniting very different types of voters is worthless.

Please understand the topic and point being made before you post. Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

Pat Tumor = bad example. This isn't 2010.

It not being 2010 doesn't mean his formula for uniting very different types of voters is worthless.

Please understand the topic and point being made before you post. Thanks.

It's probably not a good idea to compare the mid-term strategy though with the general considering that if that race happened in 2012 (with the same political environment), Toomey probably loses as the number of democrats that would have showed up would have exceeded the increase in GOP voters.

...

Implementing a strategy that appealed to a broad group of voters, not narrowly focused on the base, has nothing to do with what the result would have been if it was a Presidential election year. If the strategy was to just appeal to the Republican base, you'd have a point. That wasn't the strategy. I've made that clear. You and others keep talking about the result in a different environment, not the strategy. You're comparing apples and oranges.