Senate seats in play in 2016 (user search)
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  Senate seats in play in 2016 (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which of these seats have a decent chance of being competitive in 2016?
#1
Alaska
 
#2
Arizona
 
#3
Colorado
 
#4
Florida
 
#5
Georgia
 
#6
Illinois
 
#7
Indiana
 
#8
Iowa
 
#9
Kentucky
 
#10
Louisiana
 
#11
Missouri
 
#12
New Hampshire
 
#13
Nevada
 
#14
North Carolina
 
#15
Ohio
 
#16
Oregon
 
#17
Pennsylvania
 
#18
Washington
 
#19
Wisconsin
 
#20
Utah
 
#21
California
 
#22
Arkansas
 
#23
Another Republican-held seat
 
#24
Another Democratic-held seat
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 63

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Senate seats in play in 2016  (Read 5159 times)
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 52,607


« on: January 23, 2015, 06:38:43 PM »

Pbrower and OC in a serious contest on who can out stupid the other. Could Pbrower really be bested by a robot? Stay tuned.
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Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,607


« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2015, 12:21:10 PM »

Württemberger, this has been hashed out on other threads. Santorum's opponent was from the wrong part of the state and completely broke coming out of the primary, so he wasn't even considered a real candidate by voters in SEPA who split Gore-Santorum that year. Also Santorum hadn't yet acquired his image as a complete gay-sex-obsessed buffoon that doomed him in 2006.

Santorum was still polarizing and Klink won comfortable victories out west, which Schwartz or Foley wouldn't have won (at least not Schwartz). Schwartz wasn't going to get 54% of the vote in Allegheny (which had roughly 240,000 more votes cast than Montco, where Santorum got 54%, by the way).

So they would have do better in the SE, yes, and that's a big deal but don't act like Santorum wouldn't have gained in other areas.

All this means is that winning in PA in a GOP wave by two points doesn't mean you're finished in your re-election bid. And Toomey has advantages that Santorum didn't have even when he wasn't considered super controversial.

Württemberger, this has been hashed out on other threads. Santorum's opponent was from the wrong part of the state and completely broke coming out of the primary, so he wasn't even considered a real candidate by voters in SEPA who split Gore-Santorum that year. Also Santorum hadn't yet acquired his image as a complete gay-sex-obsessed buffoon that doomed him in 2006.

Ok, then what about Arlen Specter? He survived both 1992 and 2004.

That's a completely different case. Not a fair comparison at all. Specter obviously had better standing with Dems and overall moderates.
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Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,607


« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2015, 12:17:47 AM »

While I'll still continue to question the accuracy of this one poll, I do have a theory about the high percentage of "no opinion" respondents in polls about non-long time or non-high profile members of Congress.

Consider this: in this hyper partisan atmosphere of the last seven years or so, I feel as if a plurality of people just don't have an opinion unless you're one of the big time national players. The Cruz's, Warren's, Paul's, Sanders' of the world really suck the air out of the room now. If you're not using their tactics, you're not getting the headlines or the passionate responses. And it's not even necessarily true that Senator X elected in 2010 is unknown (though, in comparison to the people I named, it's possible). He or she might just not generate enough excitement for the average voter to have a strong opinion.

I don't care if you like or dislike the person in question here; you can't say he's anonymous. I just think it's boiling down to a difference in how people view their elected officials in this world dominated by whoever is constantly on 24-7 cable news or whoever is hot on social media.

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