PA 6/PA 8

[Keystone Phil]

PA-08: Andy Warren Set To Announce

PoliticsPa.com is reporting that former Republican Bucks County Commissioner and current PennDot Administrator, Andy Warren is about to announce his intent to challenge Republican Congressman, Mike Fitzpatrick:

Rumors Fly in PA8... Warren Considering Congressional Run
PoliticsPA has learned that former Republican Bucks County commissioner Andy Warren has called a meeting of his regional transportation office employees to make an announcement regarding his intent to run for Congress in the 8th District against incumbent Republican Mike Fitzpatrick. 

Warren switched parties in June, and cited policy differences with the Republican Party and his failure to be nominated by the Bucks County Republican Committee to replace outgoing Republican Congressman Jim Greenwood.  He quietly visited national Democratic leaders in Washington in July.

He won't get out of the primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Murphy won't survive the primary.

[Keystone Phil]

She's not running - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/090905wiessmann.htm


The Dems will have Murphy, Lang, Warren and Schrader. What a sad group.

[Keystone Phil]

She's not running - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/090905wiessmann.htm


The Dems will have Murphy, Lang, Warren and Schrader. What a sad group.

Mike Fitzpatrick- what a sad candidate you guys picked.  Reason you guys won was Schrader was even sadder.  I wouldn't have minded Joe Conti that much and if you guys nominated him, I would give up on thinking the Dems could pick this seat up.  I think Patrick Murphy or Paul Lang could very well give Fitzpatrick a good scare and possibly win.

He was a popular Commissioner and is going to win re-election, idiot. How is that sad?

Murphy would get smashed against Fitz. Sure Murphy would do well in the NE but his problems elsewhere would end his campaign in defeat. Lang is another joke. Fitzpatrick isn't getting below 53% in this race.

[Keystone Phil]

She's not running - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/090905wiessmann.htm


The Dems will have Murphy, Lang, Warren and Schrader. What a sad group.

Mike Fitzpatrick- what a sad candidate you guys picked.  Reason you guys won was Schrader was even sadder.  I wouldn't have minded Joe Conti that much and if you guys nominated him, I would give up on thinking the Dems could pick this seat up.  I think Patrick Murphy or Paul Lang could very well give Fitzpatrick a good scare and possibly win.

He was a popular Commissioner and is going to win re-election, idiot. How is that sad?

Murphy would get smashed against Fitz. Sure Murphy would do well in the NE but his problems elsewhere would end his campaign in defeat. Lang is another joke. Fitzpatrick isn't getting below 53% in this race.

Whoa, testy testy.  Are we a little scared Phil?  Keep calling these people jokes.  Both Dem nominees went to prestigious military academies, have law degress or about to have one (Lang), and have a very impressive resume for being as young as they are.  Not to mention the fact they are MUCH more in line with PA 8 voters on social issues.  If Murphy or Lang is the nominee, I can rest assure you the GOP will have problems.  Keep thinking PA 8 will be an easy ride.  No really, I would love you to think that Phil.  Schrader is a joke and I wish she would run for a local race and get involved in local politics more.   

Scared of who...Ginny Schrader? I know PA 8 is staying GOP. PA 6 is a bit of a concern but PA 8 - No.

And I'd love to see you think PA 13 is easy with a popular county DA possibly in the race.

[Keystone Phil]

With Schrader, yeah you guys still hold PA 8.  Lang or Murphy, I wouldn't be so sure along with the fact that you should also mind the national trend against the GOP.  Remember, you said I should ignore that concept in the PA 13 race last year and that Brown was "well known and liked lcoally".  Look what happened!  With Schwartz and Brown, there really were no major differences in campaign or quality of candidate.  With Schrader and Fitz, Fitz clearly was the better candidate barring the issues.

National trend against the GOP....a year away from the election!

You're a complete idiot if you can't notice the strength Schwartz had in campaigning. The Brown campaign couldn't match it. Schwartz won because of straight Dem voting in a Presidential election year and a good campaign strategy against a totally incompetent Brown team.

[Keystone Phil]

With Schrader, yeah you guys still hold PA 8.  Lang or Murphy, I wouldn't be so sure along with the fact that you should also mind the national trend against the GOP.  Remember, you said I should ignore that concept in the PA 13 race last year and that Brown was "well known and liked lcoally".  Look what happened!  With Schwartz and Brown, there really were no major differences in campaign or quality of candidate.  With Schrader and Fitz, Fitz clearly was the better candidate barring the issues.

National trend against the GOP....a year away from the election!

You're a complete idiot if you can't notice the strength Schwartz had in campaigning. The Brown campaign couldn't match it. Schwartz won because of straight Dem voting in a Presidential election year and a good campaign strategy against a totally incompetent Brown team.

I know Schwartz's strength in campaigning over Brown, but Brown did have a quasi-incumbent advantage plus Schwartz carpetbagged.  Oh and thanks for calling me an idiot because you just proved my point- the national trends HELPED Schwartz and you and I both know the difference between Schwartz-Brown was FAR smaller than Schrader-Fitzpatrick.  My point is given a decent Dem candidate in PA 8, you guys are in deep sh!t plain and simple. 

It was a Presidential election year and don't go on about national trends a year before the election, idiot!

PA 8 is no concern whatsoever with the cast of clowns you guys have. The best is Andy "They picked Fitz instead of me!" Warren. Ginny Part II will be hysterical, too, and the best part is that she can win again! PA 8 stays GOP!

[Keystone Phil]

Good news for Dems - Scrader is out - http://www.ginnyschrader.com/

[Keystone Phil]

An 11 point lead for Fitzpatrick does not discourage me at all at this point.  Considering the minimal name ID for Murphy this early and him doing this well I am quite pleased and think Fitzpatrick is in definite danger.  After the holidays, the primary and 2006 general election cycle will kick into full gear and the rug will be pulled from under Fitzpatrick real fast!  Oh and Phil- remember the ghost of Tom Daschle! BOO!

Um...sure. 

[Keystone Phil]

An 11 point lead for Fitzpatrick does not discourage me at all at this point.  Considering the minimal name ID for Murphy this early and him doing this well I am quite pleased and think Fitzpatrick is in definite danger.  After the holidays, the primary and 2006 general election cycle will kick into full gear and the rug will be pulled from under Fitzpatrick real fast!  Oh and Phil- remember the ghost of Tom Daschle! BOO!

Um...sure. 

The reason I mention Tom Daschle is his opponent stormed out of nowhere to take the seat.

Your lack of political knowledge amazes me. John Thune was a Congressman and opposed Tim Johnson in the 2002 Senate race, making it the closest race in the nation. Read up on things before posting.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm talking about the polls.  Do you always have to be so insulting?

And that's still wrong. Daschle vs. Thune was always viewed as one of the top races in the country. You were comparing Murphy to Thune and it was a bad comparison.

[Keystone Phil]

In my opinion, Patrick Murphy is the best candidate in the field, he is getting a lot of good press, and quite frankly it's time to jump on the bandwagon especially after Paul Hackett.  There is also a good article in the Northeast Times on him.  His background and mine have a lot of similarities and we agree on the major issues.  He can also do one thing the other candidates can't- cut into Fitzpatrick's Irish Catholic base in Lower Bucks County.   

Murphy wins the NE and does well in parts of Lower Bucks but that's it. Fitz wins re-election fairly easily. I do agree, though, that Murphy is stronger than Lang.

[Keystone Phil]

Save your breath Jake, you'll need it to blow up your date.

That's a good one. Now ask me what district I'm in, Scoonie.

[Keystone Phil]

Are all 16 years old in Pennsylvania such tards? Do they breed them down there?

I'm seventeen. Strike two for Scoonie.

[Keystone Phil]

Republicans can write anything they want but Dems get edited.

You didn't get the memo that this forum is part of the vast right wing conspiracy?

[Keystone Phil]

He won't win but...   http://www.mikein06.com/index.html

[Keystone Phil]

Finally! Crybaby Andy has a site - http://www.warrenforcongress.com/

[Keystone Phil]

Finally! Crybaby Andy has a site - http://www.warrenforcongress.com/

Damn that dude is UGLY!!!  I know it's shallow, but looks do count.  His face looks severely misshaped.  He looks cut out of a 50s sitcom.  Still going with Pat Murphy!

I thought the same thing. When I am seriously debating the qualities of candidates I don't bring looks into the discussion. That doesn't decide it for me but I will admit when someone is good looking or looks deformed.

[Keystone Phil]

Hey, looks didn't affect my vote in PA 13!  You're right, he looks deformed.  That could hurt.

The crybaby won't get out of the primary victorious. Murphy will be the nominee.

[Keystone Phil]

Lang is out; will run for State Senate - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/111805lang.htm

Murphy vs. Warren now.

[Keystone Phil]

Interesting thing I noticed that I am suprised Flyers hasn't brought up (can understand why Phil would not want to post this

Rothlenberg Political Report mentions PA-6 as a Competitive Race, Cook Report labels it as a tossup.  Pa-8 is listed as lean Republican by the Cook report.  By comtrast PA-13 is listed as Solid Dem by Cook Report

Uh...I have stated before that PA 6 is a competitive race but I think Gerlach will end up winning by more than he did last time for a number of reasons. PA 8 is probably alittle more than just lean Republican but no real argument here. PA 13 isn't switching without Castor so again no argument.

[Keystone Phil]

  Also in attendance were Alan Sandals

Do tell more.

[Keystone Phil]

Note to the rest of the Forum: This will likely be the PA 13 thread of 2006!

Anyway, I think this could hurt Mike Fitzpatrick.  Though he is the 19th most vulnerable, it is quite possible this seat could flip.

It's not going to happen. Murphy is an attractive candidate but Fitz hasn't done anything extreme to get him kicked out. The national GOP/President Bush would have to actually sink lower than where they are now for him to lose just because of his party.

Plus, what you pointed out that could "hurt" Fitz won't be seen by many average voters. It's a web ad.

[Keystone Phil]

Throwing out Murphy's candidacy? - http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/111-03312006-634565.html

[Keystone Phil]

Murphy not strong enough for Dems in PA 8 - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2006/04/13/GR2006041300147.html


...and I totally agree. He's very overrated.