PA 6/PA 8

[Keystone Phil]

Phil said I should bring this back and I will.  I am just wondering if anyone else thinks it was pathetic that Lois Murphy didnt win here in 2006 with everything seemed it was going in her direction. 

Murphy had a lot of things going her way but she is still at least perceived to be too extreme for the district.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil said I should bring this back and I will.  I am just wondering if anyone else thinks it was pathetic that Lois Murphy didnt win here in 2006 with everything seemed it was going in her direction. 

Murphy had a lot of things going her way but she is still at least perceived to be too extreme for the district.

Plus she didn't "fit" the district very well. If only that Dinniman guy would run...

If Dinniman would have run, I say he would have had a 60-70% shot at winning.

[Keystone Phil]

Did anybody pick Murphy to win PA-07? We all picked the wrong Murphy!

PA 8 

I think one or two people picked Pat to win. It was an upset. What a poorly run Fitz campaign. Please don't get me started...

[Keystone Phil]

I think Flyers predicted a Murphy victory the whole campaign.

Yeah, he did.

 Don't forget Pat's secret weapon: Bill Foster.

And his other not so secret weapon: Fitz's campaign imploding.

[Keystone Phil]

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

How did it implode? The campaign lost focus. I won't post my comments about the campaign manager here. Let's just say that he was fired in the final days of the campaign for a number of reasons.

The Hardball ad was perfect. I don't know why I'd object. The only thing I object to is that they felt that they only needed to run one ad.

[Keystone Phil]

How did Fitz's campaign implode? I'm curious. What did he do wrong that Gerlach did right? Was it that out-of-context Hardball hit ad on Murphy that you're objecting to?

How did it implode? The campaign lost focus. I won't post my comments about the campaign manager here. Let's just say that he was fired in the final days of the campaign for a number of reasons.

The Hardball ad was perfect. I don't know why I'd object. The only thing I object to is that they felt that they only needed to run one ad.

Wasn't the Gerlach campaign manager top-notch. I remember reading something about him in a Campaigns & Elections issue. He devised a strategy to drive Murphy's negatives so high that it was impossible for her to win.

I don't know Gerlach's campaign manager but I think I read that he was great. I comment about Fitz's campaign because I was more involved there. I did nothing for Gerlach (too far away).

[Keystone Phil]

I wish Fitz had won and Gerlach had lost. If I'd been in PA-08, I would've voted for Fitzpatrick. Any Republican who wins the Sierra Club's backing in a tough race is one who I'll support.

Good 

[Keystone Phil]

I read that his strategy was to make Gerlach "our Congressman"

That would explain the saying on the signs. 

[Keystone Phil]

My real question is Does the GOP have a shot at any of these seats in the future without a heavy wave or a last minute scandle on the part of Sestak or Murphy? Are there any highly popular star candidates(state reps, state senators, sheriffs, mayors, etc) in either district that could run in 2010 or 2012. If these aren't competitive then the all the the GOP has to compete in is  the 4,10, and someday if Holden retires the 17th.

PA 8 would need a wave or a Murphy slip up. Let's see how Manion does this year. If it is a respectable showing, the GOP will keep trying but we're probably not beating Murphy unless we have a great year. Then again, the seat may be open in a few years if Murphy wants to try for the Senate (2012 if Casey doesn't run again).

Sestak is another tough one. He could be beat. Both PA 8 and PA 7 have popular State Representatives, Senators and other local officials but they all shy away from taking on these incumbents. Sestak is way more likely to screw things up for himself so I guess we have to wait. This seat should be interesting whenever it opens up (2012 could also create an opening here if Sestak wants the Senate seat) but I'd still say that it leans Dem.

The GOP has to focus on 4, 10, 11 (this year), 12 (when Murtha goes) and 17 (when Holden goes).

[Keystone Phil]

I am not surprised by the local officials unwillingness to challenge an incuimbent. However if the Dems continue to hold the State House of Reps then I think there will be a flurry of GOP retirements and some of them might see a better future for themselves in the US House, even if it means taking on a Patrick Murphy or Joe Sestak, Then staying in a powerless minority for several years.

Well, we won't necessarily be in the minority which leads to...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's hard to analyze (and I actually follow this stuff)! We have a lock on the Senate but it's hard to say about the House. I give the Dems a slight advantage.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not a problem. I love this stuff! 

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Both sides have some vulnerable seats.

Considering the Dems only have a 1-seat margin in the PA state house, I wouldn't think that taking back over the body would be that impossible, but then again I don't exactly who's retiring and where (other than DeWeese (D) is in trouble)

Does it really matter? If the Democrats  win the Governorship in 2010, control of the State House is irrelevant, unless the Democrats somehow win the State Senate by 2010.

It may matter considering PA's history of what happens after two terms of party control of governorships historically.  We'll see.

An apt sports cliche: Streaks are meant to be broken.

I agree but we're going to have a strong nominee in 2010.    Meehan for Governor!

[Keystone Phil]

Is Corbett still the likely GOP gubernatorial nominee? If he runs, somebody from the DGA should call up Bob Casey, Jr.

Corbett has a good shot at it but Meehan is going to be some strong competition. It may end up being east vs. west. Corbett is doing a good job rallying the base with this Bonusgate stuff but we'll have to wait and see if he even survives his re-election fight.

The DGA may not even have to call up Casey. This is what he wants. Don't rule him out. I could see the Dems loving this scenario, too - they allow him to run but make him promise to appoint a real liberal Democrat to his seat if he wins.

If Casey was to run, he'd be the favorite. Enough with this "streak" nonsense. I'd love for it to be true. I'd love to see Casey beat if he was to run. I'd do everything I could to stop it. However, I won't get my hopes up. It's possible that we could beat him but not likely.

[Keystone Phil]

I agree but we're going to have a strong nominee in 2010.    Meehan for Governor!

Maybe he skipped the PA-10 bid to prepare for a Gubernatorial bid. Or maybe he's the next Richard Blumenthal, who has been the "next Governor of Connecticut" for twenty years.

It was PA 7 and we know it is because he is running for Governor. He also resigned as U.S. Attorney which is pretty much proof.

[Keystone Phil]

I agree but we're going to have a strong nominee in 2010.    Meehan for Governor!

Maybe he skipped the PA-10 bid to prepare for a Gubernatorial bid. Or maybe he's the next Richard Blumenthal, who has been the "next Governor of Connecticut" for twenty years.

It was PA 7 and we know it is because he is running for Governor. He also resigned as U.S. Attorney which is pretty much proof.

Good point. Wasn't there a U.S. Attorney who didn't run in PA-10?  I think I'm confusing Meehan with that person.

Yes, Marino, I believe.

[Keystone Phil]

As for the the 2010 Governor's mansion I have heard several names mentioned some are impossible for me to see happening. My favorites would be of course Meehan, Corbett, Santorum(I wish he wouldrun, probably lose though).

Santorum is mentioned sometimes but he won't do it. I'd support him 100% but he'd likely lose. Corbett is an ok candidate. Meehan is our best bet.

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Specter will keep running until he literally dies. His ego will stop any idea of retiring. If, for whatever reason, he couldn't run in 2010, there would be plenty of people talked up for the seat. Specter might even receive another primary challenge (we can hope). Hopefully, Toomey runs again.

[Keystone Phil]

Wouldn't it be harder this go around simply cause of the sympathy boost for Specter?

Possibly but that could be negated by the fact that Specter will be in his 80s and won't have the Bush machine/Santorum around to save his ass. That was the only reason why Specter won. People saw Bush and Santorum with him and some of the most conservative areas of the state went with Specter. They would have never done that if Bush didn't campaign here.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmmm...very interesting point about no Pro Life Republican Governors in PA (as far as I remember). That won't hurt him though. I know Meehan is Pro Life. Don't know about immigration and taxes. Meehan is known for being conservative though.

[Keystone Phil]

And exactly what the hell was Santorum smoking that made him help Specter? Did he think it would help him in 2006 as far as I can see it hurt him. He lost 800,000 votes from 2000 and some not all but some of them may have voted for him had he not done that. Plus what was Bush worried about, he was gurrenteed at least 3 or 4 seats in the south, so even if PA was lost we still would have had at least 51 seats (if SD,FL,NC, went the other way as well), and I think Toomey could have won since his old district usually mimicks the statewide results and he won it anyway for all those years.

He and Specter began to get along. Plus, Santorum wanted to get something out of helping Specter. He thought having a senior member of the caucus from PA would help him in his rise through the ranks. I love Santorum but a lot of us were very disappointed with him for that.

Bush and Company thought that Specter being the nominee would somehow help them. Specter would carry Bush across the finish line here. Many of us knew how assinine that thought was. Unfortunately, too many people fell for it. Specter also promised to do everything he could to help Bush in the state. Instead, we got this from his campaign...

[Keystone Phil]

Isn't that sign from a union shop? Specter is the AFL-CIO's go-to Republican...

Are you asking if it's union made? If so, yes, of course it is. However, that's not the point. It was put out by the Specter campaign.

[Keystone Phil]

Why didn't/doesn't Specter switch parties, then?

He has more power as a Republican.

Don't get me wrong I really liked Santorum, but he had a passion for doing the stupidest things at the worst possible time like claiming the old serine gas bombs were the WMD's we were looking for in Iraq and his comments after Katrina. I kind of forgave him of his previous errors when he endorsed Mitt Romney so I guess  I should not complain and at least he was fun to listen too now PA is stuck with Mr. Boring and Mr. what ever the heck that accent Specter has).

Santorum has said some interesting things. I don't always agree. One area where I disagreed - his endorsement of Romney. 

As for that Specter accent, we're all trying to figure that out. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eh, it didn't really matter at that point.

[Keystone Phil]

Why didn't/doesn't Specter switch parties, then?

He has more power as a Republican.

Could he have if Lieberman decided to go GOP at the start of this Congress?

He's also stubborn. As was mentioned earlier, he loves pissing off conservatives so he'll stick around. We're hoping to send him an early retirement in 2010 though.

[Keystone Phil]

Why didn't/doesn't Specter switch parties, then?

He has more power as a Republican.

Don't get me wrong I really liked Santorum, but he had a passion for doing the stupidest things at the worst possible time like claiming the old serine gas bombs were the WMD's we were looking for in Iraq and his comments after Katrina. I kind of forgave him of his previous errors when he endorsed Mitt Romney so I guess  I should not complain and at least he was fun to listen too now PA is stuck with Mr. Boring and Mr. what ever the heck that accent Specter has).

Santorum has said some interesting things. I don't always agree. One area where I disagreed - his endorsement of Romney. 

As for that Specter accent, we're all trying to figure that out. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eh, it didn't really matter at that point.

Specter was born in Wichita, right? That's Ron Wyden's home town, too. Two Jewish Senators born in a Midwestern city. What a world!

Russell - birthplace of Bob Dole. Weird coincidence, eh?

Why didn't/doesn't Specter switch parties, then?

He has more power as a Republican.

Could he have if Lieberman decided to go GOP at the start of this Congress?

He's also stubborn. As was mentioned earlier, he loves pissing off conservatives so he'll stick around. We're hoping to send him an early retirement in 2010 though.

Pick Santorum/Toomey.  I dare ya!

Ok, grow up. Santorum won't run. Toomey can win a General. Keep living in denial.

With hindsight I now think we should have kept Trent Lott. He world have term limited out 2 years later anyway(GOP has 8 year limit on leaders). We would then have avoided Frist disasterous leadership.

Agreed. I remember liking Frist and then asked myself, "Why the hell do I think this guy is a good leader?"

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey would not win a general.  The guy is a Santorum clone but only even more Conservative on economic issues.  Not a good match for the state as a whole. 

Except that he did very well in his swing Congressional district. And no, it wasn't just because of weak opponents.

In a race against a liberal Jewish Congresswoman from Philadelphia (Schwartz), you'd have to be insane to write off the race as a sure loss for Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

If Specter retired or he succumbed to his illness, who would the rinos run? I doubt they would let Toomey take it without a fight. Maybe Schweiker or god help us Bill Scranton?  

Schweiker isn't a RINO. Maybe more center-right but certainly not a RINO.

Oh, God, Bill Scranton. He's another rumored candidate but for Governor though. He might abandon that lost cause in the scenario that you mentioned.

[Keystone Phil]

Anyway I haven't heard anything about him since he left office in 2003.

Schweiker is great. He's head of the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.

Phil since you are supporting Meehan for Governor who do you want to see as Lt. Governor. He is from eastern PA so a westerner like Corbet, Swann, Hart should be pick in my view. That combo always worked before. What do you think? 

We need a westerner. Corbett would never go for it as a sitting Attorney General. Swann needs to stay away from politics. Hart wouldn't be a possibility if she's elected to Congress. If she isn't elected, she's seen as damaged goods (as much as I like her).

There are plenty of potential candidates but I think State Senator Pippy would be a good pick. He's a former State Representative and Iraq war veteran. He's also a young guy.

If Specter retired or he succumbed to his illness, who would the rinos run? I doubt they would let Toomey take it without a fight. Maybe Schweiker or god help us Bill Scranton?  

Schweiker isn't a RINO. Maybe more center-right but certainly not a RINO.

Oh, God, Bill Scranton. He's another rumored candidate but for Governor though. He might abandon that lost cause in the scenario that you mentioned.

I agree with you on Scranton, I knew about the Governor speculation but dismissed it. Schweiker has always been a mystery to me. I assumed that since he was on the ticket with Ridge he was a liberal I didn't hold it against him he was a great Governor for the short time he was in office. Anyway I haven't heard anything about him since he left office in 2003.

Carville ended Scranton's career with that infamous "guru ad."

I never thought I could thank Carville (and Begala) for anything. They might regret that a bit these days. They weren't happy with the late great Casey in his later years.

[Keystone Phil]

I would not write it off, but it would be very tough for him to win absent a 1994 style environment. 

Yes, lots of conservative culture warriors won in the northeast in the environment of the 1990s and stayed in via incumbency. It would be a much tougher sell today, as an open seat, now that we've had several years of Republican dominance at the federal level.

Yep, Rick Santorum, Frank LoBiondo(although he has moderated his views significantly since), and Mike Forbes(although he moderated and actually switched to the Dems) all come to mind. 

LoBiondo was likely never a true "culture warrior."

[Keystone Phil]

Or the Democratic nominee is Chaka-time.  In which case I'd concede to Phil, Toomey would definitely win.  I wouldn't even be sure of Toomey as a guarantee against Bob Brady though that would be a Tossup/Lean GOP.  Schwartz-Toomey would be a lean/likely Dem.  She is just too good of a fundraiser and too sharp of a candidate.

Bob Brady would not be elected statewide. The guy would be seen as the stereotypical Philly union thug. Plenty of voters (upper class, social liberals in the SE especially) would refuse to vote or even vote for Toomey.

Schwartz vs. Toomey is definitely not lean or likely Dem. It's a tossup or lean GOP. I don't care if someone is a great fundraiser. Money doesn't always win an election. She'd struggle big time statewide.