R2k-Kos: Matthews looks good in Dem. primary, tied general, Toomey fails

[Keystone Phil]

The numbers look reasonable...for now.

[Keystone Phil]

Indeed, it'll be interesting to see if Specter tilts to the left or the right in the next two years.  He has to straddle his primary and the general.

He'd be fine in the General (though age and health may become an issue) so he definitely needs to move to the right.

Those numbers are based mainly on name recognition. Matthews supporters shouldn't get too excited. I think the Schwartz vs. Murphy numbers are actually fine news for Allyson. Murphy has received a lot more attention yet he's only up by three in their head to head. If it comes down to those two, Schwartz wins thanks to the Pro Choice groups and their respective armies. Plus, she's better with the base as a whole.

[Keystone Phil]

Out of curiosity, who do the Kos people like?

I'm sure they dislike Matthews just because of his Bush 2000 vote. They'll probably prefer Allyson (though possibly see her as a DLC sellout) slightly over Murphy (a Blue Dog sellout). Schwartz probably would have the advantage due to the Pro Choicers.

I think Kos' ideal candidate would be Sestak.

Republican primary polls in 2004 dramatically under-estimated Toomey, by the way, especially this far out. Even the final polls still showed a Specter victory of about 10 points. He ended up winning by less than 2%.

Exactly. Basically any primary challenger to Specter starts out at 30%. However, in 2004, Specter was leading Toomey by about thirty points in the first polls.

Specter doesn't have Bush, Santorum or nearly as many Republicans as he had in 2004. If Toomey or anyone credible runs, Specter is in serious danger.

[Keystone Phil]

They also all pretty much uniformly dislike Specter and obviously want him defeated, despite Phil's arguments that he's a "liberal".

It doesn't matter if he is liberal or not. Specter is a registered Republican and that already means he's the enemy to these types. I'm sure they disliked Chafee and wanted him defeated as well.

[Keystone Phil]

This Matthews thing needs to be stopped. I thought this crap was over with.

He'll take a major hit with his residency, if he runs. The guy hasn't lived here in twenty years. If that doesn't scream "major liability," I don't know what does.

[Keystone Phil]

This is why I would hate to see Specter lose the primary. I just don't see Toomey winning unless the environment is really good for the GOP in 2010.

Based on what? He's trailing his "toughest opponent" by eleven points at a time when the "D" after someone's name usually leaves them with at least a high single digit lead in the General. Plus, that eleven point lead would evaporate once you take away Matthews name recognition advantage and throw in some of his negatives. To only be trailing Murphy and Schwartz by an average of seven points is also awesome given the current climate.

I don't deny the advantages that Specter would have but to view this as terrible news for Toomey is really silly.

[Keystone Phil]

Can Toomey win in the Philly suburbs like Specter can? That will be key to him beating whoever he runs against.

No, of course he can't. Toomey doesn't have that type of appeal with liberals. That being said, we're not looking for a double digit win. However, Toomey wouldn't be blown out in SE PA like Santorum was especially in a midterm year.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell has basically endorsed him.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1208/Rendell_Matthews_is_the_strongest_Democratic_candidate.html
Matthews loves Rendell. Might influence him some.

Rendell knows better than that. This means as much as his comments right before the 2007 Democratic Mayoral primary here. He praised the candidate - State Representative Dwight Evans - who was about to come in last, saying he was the most experienced and a bunch of other things. Evans still came in last. I guess he just likes to give praise to his friends/fans. What matters is what he does behind the scenes. I'm sure he'll stay away from this thing.

[Keystone Phil]

But why would he ultimately stay away from it? The final result is not at all clear at the moment. We're two years out. And at best the polls are giving a slight edge to Specter at the moment.

It has nothing to do with the General. I'm talking about the primary. There are two other potential (one of them likely) candidates that have ties to Rendell. Just because Matthews has the biggest crush on Rendell doesn't mean Rendell truly cares about him. But you actually reminded me of something...

You guys are aware that Rendell and Specter are old buddies, right? They're pretty close (and actually live on the same street here in Philly). They have to live up to their partisan duties but don't think that Rendell will really go after Specter on his own. This is one of the major reasons Rendell won't run for the Senate.