CNN An 8.8-magnitude earthquake has struck Japan

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This isn't going to be a Chernobyl, as much as those who are anti-nuclear power wish it to be.  It isn't even close to be being a Three Mile Island yet.  Unless something else goes wrong, it won't be worse for the general public than Tokaimura was in 1999 and probably not even that bad.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This isn't going to be a Chernobyl, as much as those who are anti-nuclear power wish it to be.

Yeah, we're sitting here crossing our fingers for it.

If you think that there will inevitably be another Chernobyl, why wouldn't you want it to happen sooner than later so that nuclear power will be stopped sooner as well, thereby limiting the amount of nuclear material that needs to be dealt with?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

is this melts down through the containment building foundation, it will be magnitudes worse than Chernobyl

Hardly.  If that happens it'll be worse than TMI and a lot worse than I thought it would be from the original reports, but it still won't be anywhere near as bad Chernobyl was.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

International Atomic Energy Agency update on Facebook

They are distributing iodine; it is very bad.

Does iodine really do anything? I know what it's supposed to do but this seems more like an anti-panic measure than anything.

It does help block radiation in the thyroid.  However, they are now reporting several hundred cases of "sickness" on Fox.

But does it do more for radiation than that?  It seems like radiation can damage more than the thyroid?

One of the more serious consequences of a reactor breach is the release of radioactive iodine 129 which is a fission byproduct.  Iodine is absorbed and stored in the thyroid which needs it.  (Iodine deficiency leads to goiters, which is why table salt usually has a small amount of iodine in it.)  The reason for issuing and taking iodine pills in this situation is to reduce the amount of radioactive iodine the body absorbs and stores.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Chernobyl was so bad precisely because it blew the top off and released a lot of radioactive dust into the air,  The most damaging isotopes aren't going to be carried off into the atmosphere for quick dispersal in the event of a China syndrome.  They would have to abandon using underground water supplies in the immediate area, but global effects would not reach to the level of having to evacuate the U.S. West Coast (Even if they did, evacuate to where?)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/world/asia/14plume.html

Don't know if that's been posted but...

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Okay, so around 0.2mSv/h.  Not an amount one would want to deal with on a long term basis, but based on what has been said about what is happening almost all of the radioactivity being released is from short lived isotopes.

Still, what is happening here will be Exhibits A, B, and C for why the newest reactor designs don't require power be available for pumping to cool the reactor.  If sanity prevails in the wake of this, we'll see an increase in new reactors being built to allow for the older ones to be retired sooner.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

While not relevant to what is for obvious reasons our main concern, he is underestimating the impact of the loss of generating capacity.  Uniquely among developed countries, Japan does not have one electrical system, but two.  (Yes, the US has three grids, but they all use the same voltages and frequencies.)  Western Japan uses 60Hz electricity but eastern Japan uses 50 Hz electricity.  (The difference is due to the fact that when Japan first electrified, the companies in the west imported their equipment from Germany, while those in the east got theirs from the United States.  In short, the areas of Japan that get their electricity from the 50Hz grid, are not going to be able to draw much if any power from the 60Hz grid, at least not anytime soon.

It is possible to do an interconnect between AC systems that operate on different frequencies, but it is not as simple as splicing some wires, and I really doubt that whatever interconnections as do exist were designed to provide a sustained one way flow at anywhere near the level that would be needed.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

French nuclear agency disagrees with Japan's assessment that Fukushima is a level 4 incident on the INES scale and says that it is rather a 5 or 6. This would make it as bad or worse than Three Mile Island without reaching Chernobyl levels.

Merci, Capitain Obvieux.

It's hardy obvious that a 5 or 6 would be worse than a 4.  In fact there would be some logic in having a level 1 incident be the worst possible incident in which there would be anyone left on Earth to care what level an incident was.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

French nuclear agency disagrees with Japan's assessment that Fukushima is a level 4 incident on the INES scale and says that it is rather a 5 or 6. This would make it as bad or worse than Three Mile Island without reaching Chernobyl levels.

Merci, Capitain Obvieux.

It's hardy obvious that a 5 or 6 would be worse than a 4.  In fact there would be some logic in having a level 1 incident be the worst possible incident in which there would be anyone left on Earth to care what level an incident was.

I don't really get what you mean.

IAEA defines level 1 as:

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How would this leave nobody behind "to care what level an incident was"?

I meant that on a scale of 1 to 7, it makes as much sense to define 1 as the worst and 7 as the least damaging incident as does the IAEA's prefered order of 1 as the least damaging and 7 as the worst.  The only way to know whether a 5 or 6 would be worse than a 4 is to know what the arbitrary numbers on the scale already meant.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

They needed our best effort last Saturday, whether they wanted it or not.

For better or worse, we're the United States of America, not the United States of Earth.  We're neither omnipotent nor omniscient and our previous administration left our country in a worse condition that when they took power because they thought they were both.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

so, no word yet from Jerry Falwell relating these tragic events to lack of Christianity in Japan?!

As I recall, some conservative Japanese politician made remarks about how the decline in traditional Japanese values was responsible, but I forget exactly who, and I can't find the exact quote.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ever since the containment breach at reactor 2 was announced, it was fairly obvious that it was a level 6 all by itself.  However, it is not obvious that this is significantly worse than Kyshtym (which is the sole level 6 incident officially) and it obvious that it is not as bad as Chernobyl.  I wouldn't be surprised if this provisional level 7 is later reduced to a final level 6. (Or that the INES is revised to place Chernobyl on a new level 8.)