college football chat.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Despite all the talk about where Texas is going to end, I don't see either the Pac or the SEC as being willing to take Texas if it insists on keeping its toxic TV deal.  I think the most probable outcome if the Big 12 collapses is to have Texas ending up as a football independent with a Notre Dame style tie-in to the BCS.  The alternative to a Big 12 collapse is to have effectively a Big 12 merger with the Mountain West, tho with some schools such as Hawaii and Missouri either choosing or being pushed to go someplace other than the Big 16.  (I don't see enough football schools remaining in the Big East to make a merger with the Big 12 a possibility, and neither the WAC nor C-USA are a good fit with the Texas/Oklahoma schools.)

I don't think the Big East will collapse per se, just lose its football schools, but the schools that haven't been competing in the FBS as part of the Big East will be the only ones that remain, including Notre Dame.  They might go after some other basketball schools to join them.

The two most obvious targets for a Big Ten expansion are Missouri and Rutgers given the Big Ten's insistence on AAU membership. For the same reason UConn has no chance at joining the Big Ten, so it'll have to go to the ACC or decide to return to the FCS level for football. Speaking of the ACC, if they get UConn as their 15th, it's hard to see who they get for their 16th unless they head for a non Atlantic coast state. They want Rutgers, but I think they'll head to the Big Ten instead.  Given the importance of basketball to the ACC, I think they'd prefer Louisville over West Virgina or Cincinnati.  Besides, I think the SEC would prefer both West Virgina and Cincinnati over Louisville.  Assuming the SEC gets both of those, I think its most likely #16 if it can't pry loose an ACC team is Tulsa.  The SEC would prefer something better than Tulsa, but I don't see it as being available unless Texas A&M consents to a second SEC team from Texas such as Houston, SMU, or TCU.

What of the Pacific-14?  (I think like the Big Ten, the Pacific-12 will be content with just 14 unless it can get Texas to give up its toxic TV deal.)  Colorado St., New Mexico, UTEP, SMU, and Houston all look attractive, but it's hard to say.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I agree that Rutgers isn't a great choice for the Big Ten, but because of their academic requirements, I don't see a better one for them to pursue as #14 if they add Missouri as #13.  Mybe if they could get Kansas without taking Kansas St., but that seems a stretch.  Rice and Tulane only make sense if the Big 10 decides to expand to 16 teams, which I doubt it will.  Maybe in a decade, Buffalo will have made enough of a resurgence in its athletic programs to be considered by a major conference, but I can't see the Bulls leaving the MAC sooner than that, and even then it is probably wishful thinking.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I just don't see the proposed additions to the Big East happening.

With the MW/C-USA football mashup in the works, there is no need for Boise State or Air Force to jump to the Big East to be in an AQ conference, indeed, they likely be jumping from an AQ conference if they did, since even with this proposed Big East, it will lose its AQ status when the next contract is up.

I don't see Navy joining the Big East for football in any circumstances short of Notre Dame and Army both doing so, which isn't going to happen.

With those three disposed of, any hopes the Big East have of getting Houston and SMU to join are toast as well.

UCF might be persuaded, if the Big East keeps USF and gets some teams such as Temple, Buffalo, ECU, and/or Marshall to join.

More likely, the Big East implodes as a football conference.  Louisville and Cincinnati join West Virginia in a twelve member Big Twelve. UConn and Rutgers join the ACC, and USF rejoins C-USA, while UTEP moves from C-USA to the MW to balance the two out.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

how about LSU-UH?  battle of the only unbeatens

There quite a few teams that would be unbeaten with the Cougar's soft schedule.  I realize that it's not entirely the Cougars' fault that they won't play a ranked team this year, but it is what it is. (Southern Miss's loss to UAB Thursday will likely drop them from the top 25, so they won't be ranked when you face face then for the C-USA championship.) You've played all of three games against teams with winning records so far, and if SMU loses to Rice next weekend, make that two games. You barely beat UCLA and Louisiana Tech in those two games.  Yes, you'll face a couple of decent teams the next two weeks and you're favored to win, but while it would be an upset if Houston loses one of them, it wouldn't be a shocker.  Houston could finish with a 14-0 record after the bowls are over, but even if they end up as the only unbeaten FBS team, no one would ever think they are the best FBS team this season.

Personally, I think they'll finish 13-1 after losing in the Sugar Bowl to Alabama or Stanford or to the winner of next week's Oklahoma/Oklahoma St. game in the Fiesta Bowl.  The only chance the Cougars have to finish 14-0 is if they be lucky enough to go to the Orange Bowl to face the ACC champion.  Even if the Sugar Bowl be forced to pick two teams from the pool of availables, there's no way it will be stuck with a Houston v. Big East matchup that almost no one would watch.
 
If college football were like European soccer, the Cougars would get promoted to a good conference.  But unless the Cougars can get into the SEC or Big Twelve, they don't have a chance of getting a national championship as long as C-USA is nothing more than a small joke with a couple of good teams.  (The C-USA/MW amalgam will be a big joke that lasts until enough of the good teams get taken by other conferences to permit a full merger of the remaining teams into a single mid-major conference.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

don't know...4 top 10 teams lost...UH should move into top 5 tuesday

Nah, UH didn't even move into the top 5 in the polls and UH's weak schedule means the computers will dislike them worse than the polls

What will be interesting is if Arkansas beats LSU next week.  If Georgia then wins the SEC Championship against whoever wins the tiebreaker between Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU, then the SEC could end up with three BCS bowl bids.  (That scenario can only happen if the top two teams are from the same BCS conference, but don't win that conference's championship.  If Arkansas just barely beats LSU (especially in OT) then I expect all three to be ranked 1-2-3, with only the order being in question.  Then if whoever goes on face Georgia loses (whoever won the head-to-head between the top two ranked teams), the other two will be ranked 1-2 in the final poll.  Then the battle for position between Boise St. and Houston will be important.  If the SEC gets three BCS births, then only the highest ranked non-AQ school will get in.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I see Virginia Tech has decided to throw out the argument I was prepared to make that they should face LSU in the BCS championship game.  If the score was reversed, it would have been a good argument too.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I see Virginia Tech has decided to throw out the argument I was prepared to make that they should face LSU in the BCS championship game.  If the score was reversed, it would have been a good argument too.

How? Virginia Tech isn't one of the five best teams in the country.

Given how they did tonight, you are right, but if they had won, they would have avenged their sole loss of the season.  They improved a good deal during the season, so if they'd beaten Clemson 38-10 tonight instead of losing 38-10, LSU-VT would have been a more sensible matchup than the LSU-Alabama rematch we're likely going to get unless the human polls push down Alabama and push up Oklahoma St.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There's no money in the Big 12 because there aren't a lot of people in that part of the country. That doesn't change the fact that it was the best conference in football this year.

I can't think of anything less interesting than a game between LSU and Alabama. I know I won't be watching. I will be watching Stanford play in their non-Rose Bowl.

The Big XII isn't destined to last, its really (like the Big East) a marriage of convenience between Texas and the rest of its dwarfs and the Big 8...that Texas needed after SMU's death penalty blew the SWC apart.  Once Texas decides its over, it will be over.  No other school's views withstanding.

The reason Texas sticks with the Big 12 is that so far no other conference it would like being a part of has been willing to let it have the special privileges it wants.  At the moment unless Texas decides it can make it as an independent, I see no reason it will abandon the Big 12.  Indeed, I think that if the Big East continues to implode, as I think likely, the Big 12 will likely scoop up Louisville and Cincinnati any maybe a couple of C-USA teams.