What are the chances of this map coming true?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Zero chance.  It's impossible for Obama to take NE-2 while losing both Iowa and Wisconsin.

This is probably the most likely tied EV map:

This is another plausible one, but not as likely as the first I gave:

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Pretty decent chance, though not extremely likely. The best scenario for a tie, in my opinion, would be this:

Possible, but its chances have gone down the last few weeks as the Wisconsin bump from picking Ryan has faded.

Kerry + OH + NM is also a tie.

Possible by not likely.  It looks like if Obama only gets one of Ohio and Virginia he's far likelier to get Virginia instead of Ohio.